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121.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is able to survive in poultry products and could be carried into a country by air travelers. An assessment model was constructed to estimate the probability of the exotic viable HPAIV entering Taiwan from two neighboring areas through poultry products carried illegally by air passengers at Taiwan's main airports. The entrance risk was evaluated based on HPAIV-related factors (the prevalence and the incubation period of HPAIV; the manufacturing process of poultry products; and the distribution-storage-transportation factor event) and the passenger event. Distribution functions were adopted to simulate the probabilities of each HPAIV factor. The odds of passengers being intercepted with illegal poultry products were estimated by logistic regression. The Monte Carlo simulation established that the risk caused by HPAIV-related factors from area A was lower than area B, whereas the entrance risk by the passenger event from area A was similar to area B. Sensitivity analysis showed that the incubation period of HPAIV and the interception of passenger violations were major determinants. Although the result showed viable HPAIV was unlikely to enter Taiwan through meat illegally carried by air passengers, this low probability could be caused by incomplete animal disease data and modeling uncertainties. Considering the negative socioeconomic impacts of HPAIV outbreaks, strengthening airport quarantine measures is still necessary. This assessment provides a profile of HPAIV entrance risk through air travelers arriving from endemic areas and a feasible direction for quarantine and public health measures. 相似文献
122.
123.
Jisoo Hwang 《Journal of population economics》2016,29(2):529-570
The fraction of U.S. college graduate women who ever marry has increased relative to less educated women since the mid-1970s. In contrast, college graduate women in developed Asian countries have had decreased rates of marriage, so much so that the term “Gold Misses” has been coined to describe them. This paper argues that the interaction of rapid economic growth in Asia combined with the intergenerational transmission of gender attitudes causes the “Gold Miss” phenomenon. I present a simple dynamic model then test its implications using U.S. and Asian data on marriage and time use. 相似文献
124.
This study explores fathers' experiences with work–family conflict and their perceptions of how supportive the organizational culture at work is regarding fathers' work–family needs, and whether a family‐supportive organizational culture is associated with less work–family conflict. A total of 377 fathers working in private Swedish companies were surveyed. While a modest proportion of fathers experienced high levels of work‐to‐family conflict, less family‐to‐work conflict was reported. Further, fathers perceived little work–family support from top managers, supervisors, and co‐workers. Our results indicate that the cultures in the examined companies have norms that separate work and family from each other. Fathers seem likely to experience work–family conflict as long as the family‐supportive organizational culture, especially at the work group level, is not well‐developed. When fathers experience their work organizations as family‐supportive, they are likely to be better able to combine work and family and thus to help Swedes achieve a more gender‐equal society. 相似文献
125.
Theory and Decision - 相似文献
126.
127.
Soosung Hwang 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(3):571-578
We show that persistence of conditional volatility in large samples could be exaggerated by the existence of structural breaks in the ARCH and GARCH parameters. Our results suggest that extreme persistence frequently observed in index volatility does not necessarily indicate the same level of persistence over the sample period. 相似文献
128.
Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), we investigate the possible links between the Russian
mortality crisis of the 1990s and social transition that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results of the analysis
demonstrate that Russians’ life chances and their psychological resources and well-being were deteriorated during the transition
in the 1990s. The deterioration of life chances and psychological resources and well-being, in conjunction with the high-risk
lifestyle of many Russians, increased their risks of dying both directly and indirectly, through a negative impact on their
health.
This work was completed before the first author started to work in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The findings
and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. 相似文献
129.
The extent of bias due to measurement errors is an important problem in the context of regression and survival analysis. While research in these areas has been extensive and fruitful, investigations into the effect of measurement errors in capture–recapture models have been very limited. The contributions of this paper are to understand the effects of measurement errors in continuous-time capture–recapture models and to propose new methods to circumvent their impact. We derive asymptotic variance formulas for each method and assess their finite sample properties via simulation studies. 相似文献
130.
We extend the study on partition properties from the set partition to the graph partition, especially for the class of connected block graphs which includes trees. We introduce seventeen partition properties and determine their inter-relations. The notions of k-consistency and k-sortability were studied in the set partition to localize the properties, i.e., a global property can be verified through checking local conditions. We carry on these studies for partitions on connected block graphs. In particular, we completely determine the consistency for all the seventeen properties. 相似文献