A Bayesian test of independence in a two-way contingency table using surrogate sampling

We consider a Bayesian approach to the study of independence in a two-way contingency table which has been obtained from a two-stage cluster sampling design. If a procedure based on single-stage simple random sampling (rather than the appropriate cluster sampling) is used to test for independence, the p-value may be too small, resulting in a conclusion that the null hypothesis is false when it is, in fact, true. For many large complex surveys the Rao–Scott corrections to the standard chi-squared (or likelihood ratio) statistic provide appropriate inference. For smaller surveys, though, the Rao–Scott corrections may not be accurate, partly because the chi-squared test is inaccurate. In this paper, we use a hierarchical Bayesian model to convert the observed cluster samples to simple random samples. This provides surrogate samples which can be used to derive the distribution of the Bayes factor. We demonstrate the utility of our procedure using an example and also provide a simulation study which establishes our methodology as a viable alternative to the Rao–Scott approximations for relatively small two-stage cluster samples. We also show the additional insight gained by displaying the distribution of the Bayes factor rather than simply relying on a summary of the distribution.     

Objective indicators,personal characteristics,and satisfaction with safety from crime and violence: An interaction model

An interaction model is presented which allows crime rates, personal characteristics, or both to determine satisfaction with safety from crime and violence. The model is tested with data from recent migrants from California to southern Oregon. Those households which are most vulnerable, particularly those with young children, older people, females, and those with more wealth, would derive the highest levels of satisfaction from reductions in crime rates.     

On the folly of principal's power: Managerial psychology as a cause of bad incentives

Faulty and dysfunctional incentive systems have long interested, and frustrated, managers and organizational scholars alike. In this analysis, we pick up where Kerr (1975) left off and advance an explanation for why bad incentive systems are so prevalent in organizations. We propose that one contributing factor lies in the psychology of people who occupy managerial roles. Although designing effective incentive systems is a challenge wrought with perils for anyone, we believe the psychological consequences and correlates of higher rank within organizations make the challenge more severe for managers. Patterns of promotion and hiring typically yield managers that are more competent than their employees, and ascending to management positions increases individuals’ workload and power. In turn, these factors make managers more egocentrically anchored and cognitively abstract, while also reducing their available cognitive capacity for any given task, all of which we argue limits their ability to design effective incentives for employees. Thus, ironically, those with the power to design incentives may be those least able to effectively do so. We discuss four specific types of bad incentive systems that can arise from these psychological tendencies in managers: those that over-emphasize compensation, generate weak motivation, offer perverse motivation, or are misaligned with organizational culture.

“There is no doubt that in our society the superior/subordinate relationship—the hierarchy itself—is crucial in terms of motivation.” (Lawler, 1973, p. 7)

     

Motives,Timing, and Targets of Corporate Philanthropy: A Tripartite Classification Scheme of Charitable Giving

Although corporate philanthropy has been an important part of American business for more than a century, the motives and consequences of corporate philanthropy are not well understood. This paper develops a richer classification scheme of philanthropic activity, to aid in theory development and management. Examining simultaneously the domains of why firms give (motive), when they give (timing) and to whom they give (target), a conceptual model identifying distinct categories of philanthropic activity is developed and its implications to present and future research discussed.     

Engineering Discovery Learning: The Contingency Adduction of Some Precursors of Textual Responding in a Beginning Reading Program

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - A learning situation in which the principal content of what is to be learned is not given but is independently discovered by the learner is often considered...     

QUALITY ISSUES IN TELEPHONE SURVEYS: COVERAGE, NON-RESPONSE and QUOTA SAMPLING

The quality of a telephone survey is affected by several factors: telephone coverage, non-response, the methods used to select households and persons, and the quality of responses obtained from respondents. Data are provided which show that a large proportion of Australian households have telephone connections. However, telephone coverage is not uniform and some subgroups of the population have much lower connection rates. This paper reviews evidence of the effect of non-response and the effectiveness of repeated call backs, and reports the results of a new study. The use of quota sampling to select respondents from randomly selected households is also examined. The results suggest that telephone surveys under-represent older persons and the unemployed, and over-represent middle-aged persons. It is shown that while call backs can increase the response rate, the effect on the composition of the sample and resulting estimates is minimal. The main effects are due to refusals and variation in coverage rates.