A note on the analysis of parity progression ratios

Contingency table modeling procedures are proposed to examine the effects of independent variables on parity progression ratios. The methodology is outlined and an incremental-factorial linear model is developed.     

Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches

This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty.     

Institutional academic industry relationship: results of interviews with university leaders

The purpose of this study was to explore qualitatively the nature, consequences and management of institutional academic industry relationships (IAIRs) in the life and health sciences. The results of our interviews suggest that in the institutions we visited IAIRs are common and deeply embedded in the academic enterprise both among institutional officials and the organization itself. Many believe these relationships have potential benefits for the research and education mission while creating the potential for conflicts of interest. Further tracking and study of the IAIRs is required to understand and anticipate the full effects of these relationships on the scientific enterprise in the United States.     

Outdoor-based play and reconnection to nature: a neglected pathway to positive youth development

Throughout history, outdoor-based play and the connection to nature have been recognized as important contributors to a happy life and healthy development. At times, however, play and nature have been neglected and viewed as frivolous and wasteful. In the early twentieth century, the first play movement took place to get children out of the factories and back outdoors to play. Now, a century later, factors including twenty-four-hour media,stranger danger, and overscheduling of children's time have resulted in a level of play deprivation that is contributing to a host of social, emotional, and physical problems. This article draws on recent research that shows that as many as 40 percent of America's schools have eliminated or significantly reduced recess. Also, children and adolescents are spending an average of fifty-three hours each week in front of screen media, and only 31 percent of mothers report that their children play outside as frequently as they did as children. The deficits in outdoor-based play that arise from these lifestyles have resulted in significant increases in emotional and psychological disorders, decreased capacity to deal with stressors, and decreased physical fitness. This article describes specific organizations and programs that address the problem of play deprivation and reconnection to the outdoors.     

Too Much Fun: Toys as Social Problems and the Interpretation of Culture

Toys are a frequent subject of contemporary claims concerning social problems. Rooted in our culture's longstanding ambivalence regarding leisure and its concerns about children's vulnerability, claims about troublesome toys also reflect anxiety about children's increased susceptibility to non-familial influences, their growing access to toys, and an expanded toy industry, as well as an active social movement sector. Typically, these claims argue that toys represent undesirable values, and that children who play with the toys acquire those values. Parallel arguments may be found in claims regarding other forms of popular and material culture. Interactionists should be wary of making or accepting these claims, because rather than treating children's play as a topic (or empirical study, such claims locate meaning in objects, rather than actors.     

Blumer’s dilemma: The critic as a tragic figure

Herbert Blumer criticized sociological research for its failure to confront obdurate, empirical reality. However, Blumer conducted little research of his own. An examination of his works on crowds, fashion, and social problems reveals some of the same problems he found in others’ works. Blumer illustrates how critics risk becoming tragic figures, wedded to theoretical principles that cannot be put into practice. Thanks to Irwin Deutscher, John Lofland, Kathleen Lowney, David Maines, and Robert Prus for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Empirical Bayes and Adjusted Estimates Approach to Estimating the Relation of Mortality to Exposure of PM10

Forward Links to Citing Articles Retraction . Risk Analysis 25: 6, 1683
In the framework of the APHEIS program (Air Pollution and Health: A European Information System), a health impact assessment of air pollution in 26 European cities was performed for particles of an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM₁₀). For short-term effects, it was based on overall estimates from the APHEA-2 project (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach). These city-specific risk assessments require city-specific concentration-response functions, raising the question of which concentration-response is most appropriate. Estimates from city-specific models are more specific, but have greater uncertainty than those provided from multicity analyses. We compared several estimates derived from the city-specific analyses in cities that were part of the APHEA-2 project, as well as in a city that was not included in APHEA-2 but was part of the APHEIS project. These estimates were: the estimates from a local regression model, the adjusted estimates based on two significant effect modifiers identified through meta-regression models, and the city-specific empirical Bayes (shrunken) estimates and their underlying distribution. The shrunken and adjusted estimates were used to improve the estimation of city-specific concentration-response function. From these different estimates, attributable numbers of deaths per year were calculated. The advantages and limits of the different approaches are discussed through real data and in a simulation study.