A macroeconomic potential describing structural change of the economy

For the purpose of describing change in an economy's structure, and addressing issues of transformation, the notion of a time-dependent macroeconomic potential function is introduced. It penalizes deviations from equilibrium (entrepreneurial error) and induces moves toward equilibrium. Thus, from the concept of a potential function is derived the concept of short-term and long-term change forces. We focus here on the long-term structural changes of an economy as distinct from short-term cyclical variations, and we represent economic transformations as phase-transitions between monostable and ambiguous bistable states of the economy. One important feature of the potential function approach is that the parameter of the potential can be determined from empirical data. In particular, the parameters can be regressed for input variables. Hence, a relationship has been established between the structural change force and a set of input variables, some of which are controlled in part by either public or private sector agents. The method has been applied to West German and United States industry data for 1950–1980.     

从"混沌"到"抽象":经济科学研究对象的统一性

经济科学都是以经济活动及其关系作为自己的研究对象的 ;虽然在近 2 0年来经济活动发生了向其他领域的“延伸” ,但它本身的“经济”意义并没有丧失。因此还需要坚定地把握经济活动及其关系对各门具体经济学科所具有的这种统一性。     

World Development and the Restructuring of the Industrial Economies

This paper reports on the joint SPM/CRANEC Catholic University of Milan symposium on “World Development and the Restructuring of Industrial Economies” held at Bellagio, Lake Como, Italy during the week of 10–15 September 1979. The symposium was organized to discuss the adjustments required by the industrialized economies when adapting to the changes inherent in present world development trends, as well as to help define national and international policy measures that might be used to facilitate the restructuring process. This report reviews the key issues, alternative strategies for restructuring, and policy measures for restructuring discussed at the symposium. It also offers some conclusions based on the results of the symposium.     

Exploring the Traits of Happy People

This paper explores self-reported happiness across afourfold personality framework that synthesizespsychoanalytic and psychometric approaches topersonality structure. Using survey data from arepresentative sample of the U.S. adult population, weidentified four personality types rooted in two basicdimensions – Extraversion/Introversion andTendermindedness/Toughmindedness. On a general level,we found that Extraverts were happier than Introverts,and Tendermindeds were happier than Toughmindeds. More specifically, we identified patterns ofsimilarities and differences across personality typesin the meaning of happiness with respect to goodeating habits, financial insecurity, anxiety andtension, financial optimism, and health concerns.     

The Relationship Between Hope,Eustress, Self-Efficacy,and Life Satisfaction Among Undergraduates

The construct of eustress was studied alongside hope and self-efficacy, to explore how these constructs are related to life satisfaction among undergraduates. Questionnaires were administered to undergraduates to test the hypotheses that (1) as eustress levels increase, so will life satisfaction levels; (2) when eustress, hope, and self-efficacy are examined together, they will predict life satisfaction better than eustress alone; (3) eustress, hope, and self-efficacy will all be positively correlated with life satisfaction; and (4) self-efficacy will be the most positively correlated with life satisfaction. The results revealed a significant positive correlation between eustress and life satisfaction. A Hierarchical Linear Regression analysis revealed significant results supporting hypotheses 2 and 3, but not hypothesis 4. Results indicated that hope is the best predictor of life satisfaction. The work reported provides a reliable tool for measuring eustress, examines eustress in a new way at the academic level, and provides helpful information about student wellness to college administrators.     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

The Nigerian Civil Registration and Vital Statistics System: Contexts,Institutions, Operation

Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems are playing increasing roles in national and global data infrastructure, facilitating the achievement of key developmental goals. The performance of CRVS systems in many developing countries including Nigeria is sub optimal and information on their structure and operations scanty. This paper characterizes the statutory, institutional, and operational elements and social contexts of the Nigerian CRVS System. It includes a context analysis of the system and a review of improvement strategies and interventions. The paper shows that the Nigerian CRVS System is built on viable statutory and institutional platforms—the constitutional enshrinement of: universal, compulsory and continuous civil registration and, a central registration institution—the National Population Commission (NPC). NPC has registration hierarchy and infrastructure deployed at every level of political administration and mechanisms for efficient coordination of registration and production of vital statistics on live-births, deaths and stillbirths amongst other vital events. The major weaknesses of the system include inadequate financing and deployment of registration facilities, conflicting statutes and institutional arrangements for the registration of key events like death and stillbirths. Other weaknesses include intra-organizational conflicts in resource allocation and weak ICT infrastructure within the NPC. These are compounded by overarching contextual issues namely registration unfriendly sociocultural norms, weak national data infrastructure, systemic corruption, poverty and undeveloped civic culture. Domestic initiatives and interventions to improve the system have focused on birth registration, while multilateral interventions have only made a modest impact on the system. Thus, holistic in-country improvement initiatives supported with robust interventions are imperative to overcome weaknesses in the Nigerian CRVS system. However fundamental improvements in CRVS systems in developing countries like Nigeria may likely only follow sustainable solutions to overarching contextual issues especially poor infrastructure, weak institutions, poverty and systemic corruption.     

Socioeconomic and Demographic Predictors of Potable Water and Sanitation Access in Ghana

Lack of access to potable water and good sanitation is still one of the most challenging public health concerns of the twenty-first century despite steady progress over recent decades. Almost a billion people globally lack access to safe water; over two billion live without adequate sanitation facilities. The challenge is even more daunting for Sub-Saharan Africa where coverage levels for both potable water and sanitation remain critically low. The urgent need to address the issue calls for adequate understanding of the socio-economic dimensions. Using the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we investigated the socio-economic and demographic factors associated with access to potable water and improved sanitation facilities. Our generalized linear models reveal that income, education, household size, and region are significant predictors of improved water and sanitation access. Our discussion and conclusion sections highlight the implications of the study results for water policy formulation and implementation in Ghana, and broadly for other developing countries.     

Modeling time series data with semi-reflective boundaries

Time series data are increasingly common in many areas of the health sciences, and in some instances, may have natural boundaries serving as performance guidelines or as thresholds associated with adverse outcomes. Such boundaries may be labeled as semi-reflective, in that the time series values have an increased chance of returning towards middle levels as the boundaries are approached, but boundaries can still be breached. In this paper we review a model that was previously proposed for such data and we investigate its statistical properties. Specifically, this model consists of a third-order auto-regressive projection component, parameterized as a constrained linear combination of linear, flat, and quadratic trends, and an error term that uses a logistic regression model for its sign. We describe and compare a previously-proposed estimation method with a modified version thereof, using computer simulations, as well as data examples from heart monitoring and from a driving simulator. We find that the two methods tend to give different results, with the modified technique having lower bias and more accurate confidence intervals than the previously-proposed method.