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81.
Organisations that develop demographic projections usually propose several variants with different demographic assumptions. Existing criteria for selecting a preferred projection are mostly based on retrospective comparisons with observations, and a prospective approach is needed. In this work, we use the mean–variance scaling (spatial variance function) of human population densities to select among alternative demographic projections. We test against observed and projected Norwegian county population density using two spatial variance functions, Taylor’s law (TL) and its quadratic generalisation, and compare each function’s parameters between the historical data and six demographic projections, at two different time scales (long term: 1978–2010 vs. 2011–2040; and short term: 2006–2010 vs. 2011–2015). We find that short-term projections selected by TL agree more accurately than the other projections with the recent county density data and reflect the current high rate of international migration to and from Norway. The variance function method implemented here provides an empirical test of an ex ante approach to evaluating short-term human population projections. 相似文献
82.
83.
Joel Best 《Symbolic Interaction》2020,43(3):541-556
The extraordinary social and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has generated many claims about the middle-range future—the period beginning in the late summer or early fall of 2020 and projected to last for some months or years. This paper surveys those assertions and seeks to explain the factors that led to them. Exploring questions about future claims can expand the scope of social problems theory. 相似文献
84.
Joel Gagnon Frédérick Dionne Guillaume Raymond Simon Grégoire 《Journal of American college health : J of ACH》2019,67(4):374-382
Objective: This pilot study pursued two aims. The first was to investigate the feasibility and acceptability of a Web-based acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) intervention to reduce academic procrastination among university students. The second aim was to test the effectiveness of the intervention on procrastination and committed actions. Participants: The sample was comprised of Canadian university students (n?=?36) that participated in the intervention between September 2016 and April 2017. Methods: The study relied on a prepost research design. Results: The intervention appears feasible, acceptable, and valuable to students. A significant reduction in procrastination and a significant improvement in committed actions were found between pre and postintervention. The effect sizes for these results were medium. Conclusions: Results provide preliminary support for the feasibility and effectiveness of a Web-based ACT intervention for academic procrastination. Results also highlight some aspects that need to be improved for further development. 相似文献
85.
Joel G. Maxcy 《LABOUR》2004,18(2):177-189
This paper examines the choice of contract length for workers who possess unique skills. Uncertainty, facing both the worker and the firm, creates an incentive to reallocate risk. The uncertainty arises from two sources: variation in the market value of the worker's human capital and fluctuation in the worker's physical production. Long‐term contracts are typically modeled as compensating wage differentials, or as a solution to the problem of asymmetric information. This paper develops a model proposing more complex behavior in the reallocation of risk between the contracting parties. The model shows that long‐term labor contracts are most likely to be observed when price uncertainty in the labor market exceeds the worker's productive uncertainty. 相似文献
86.
Older adults are faced with numerous physical, psychological, and social role changes that challenge their sense of self and capacity to live happily. In addition, they are inundated by our youth-oriented culture with negative ageist stereotypes. Nevertheless, most older adults live happy, fulfilling lives. In this article, we review theories of the aging individual that address this apparent paradox. These theories can be largely divided into those that emphasize control and goal attainment, and those that emphasize the self's organizational capacity. Of the self-oriented theories, we will highlight Whitbourne's (1996) identity process perspective, which is specific to the aging process and attempts to explain the self's unique capacity to remain stable yet change over time. 相似文献
87.
Magat Wesley A. Huber Joel Viscusi W. Kip Bell Jason 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2000,21(1):7-43
This article introduces an iterative choice procedure for valuing inland water quality. This approach breaks up the valuation into a series of component tasks. The water quality ladder approach is not valid empirically. Consequently, respondents in Colorado and North Carolina assessed the value of making water quality rated good by EPA, which has a value of $22.40 per additional percent improvement. Nonuse and probabilistic use are highly valued. The results also indicate how water quality valuations differ for aquatic environment, edible fish, and swimming, as well as for water that is cloudy, smelly, or polluted by toxics. Minorities are particularly likely to rely upon monitorable water quality attributes. 相似文献
88.
This paper presents the results of an empirical study based on the premise that, among companies with the same nominal earnings, those with higher quality of earnings will be more highly valued by investors. The price-earnings ratio should be higher for companies with better quality of earnings and lower for companies with poorer quality of earnings. The test is performed by estimating regression equations relating the price-earnings ratio to quality of earnings factors. The study should prove to be of significant value to financial decision-makers in formulating their long range plans. 相似文献
89.
Data from a study of college aspirations among 40,000 Minnesota adolescents indicate that the relationship of family size to aspirations is somewhat higher among Protestants than Catholics. Overall aspirational differences between religious groups are minor. Further analysis suggests that these differences are probably not a function of financial capacities but rather of more basic socialization practices. The data are used to illustrate an alternative approach in analyzing the relevance of religion to contemporary society: examining processual differences between religious groups rather than concentrating only on outcomes–such as net differences in aspirations. The paper concludes by speculating that social process may be critical in distinguishing Protestants from Catholics but has generally been neglected in contemporary research on religion. 相似文献
90.