Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

A gender comparison of HIV and drug use across the rural-urban continuum

Despite the central role of women drug users in escalating AIDS statistics, there is still a limited number of studies that examine the roles of gender and drug use type in HIV seroprevalence. This lacuna in the research literature has led to significant gaps in researchers' understanding of how and to what extent women may differ in their drug-using and HIV risk behaviors compared to their better-studied male counterparts. This study, derived from a sample of 3,555 out-of-treatment drug users residing in three South Florida urban and rural communities, attempts to compare the drug usage and needle and sexual risk behaviors of male and female drug users that put them at risk for HIV infection. The overall seropositivity rate for women drug users was 26.5% compared to 19.5% for their male counterparts. Results of multivariate analyses indicate that females compared to males were 1.4 times more likely to be HIV seropositive. Risk behaviors associated with this elevated seropositivity include living arrangements, homeless status, drug use, sexual trading behaviors, and history of STDs. Furthermore, there was a strong linear relationship between drug use type and HIV seroprevalence among women drug users. Compared to those who were neither crack smokers nor injectors of illicit drugs, those who were crack smokers only were 2 times more likely to be HIV seropositive, while those who were both crack smokers and injectors were 5 times more likely to be HIV seropositive, and those who were injectors only were 6 times more likely to be HIV seropositive. These findings indicate that among women, drug abuse and its associated risk behaviors, increase the vulnerability of this population for HIV and thus render them an extremely important priority population on which to focus HIV prevention and public health efforts and programs.     

Marriage and childbirth as factors in dropping out from school: an analysis of DHS data from sub-Saharan Africa

Leaving school prematurely is often claimed to be among the most negative consequences of early marriage and pregnancy for girls in less developed countries. However, an analysis of the relative frequency with which these events actually occur or are named as reasons for leaving school reveals that, at least in the case of francophone Africa, they explain no more than 20 per cent of dropouts. To the extent that demographic events trump school or family factors as determinants of school-leaving, our data indicate that it is union formation--defined by the DHS as first marriage or cohabitation--rather than childbirth that is more likely to have this effect. 'Schoolgirl pregnancy' typically accounts for only between 5 and 10 per cent of girls' departures from school. Furthermore, the risks of leaving school because of pregnancy or marriage have declined over time with the decline in rates of early marriage and childbearing.     

Selective migration and health in the USA, 1984-93

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigated the impact of health on domestic migration within the USA. We find that, for men below 60 years of age, a move from the middle to the bottom of the health distribution reduces mobility by 32-40 per cent. Non-random attrition from the panel implies that these are lower bounds. By contrast, we find evidence that, among older men, there is higher mobility at the top and bottom of the health distribution than there is in the middle. For women, we find no evidence of a relationship between their own health and mobility, although spouse's health does affect the mobility of married women.     

The potential impact of discrimination fears of older gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgender individuals living in small- to moderate-sized cities on long-term health care

As an exploration of the potential impact of fears of discrimination against GLBTs in long-term health care settings, this study compared perceptions of GLBT persons and heterosexuals. A total of 132 GLBT persons and 187 heterosexuals living in Eastern Washington completed a survey that contained demographic questions and perceptions of discrimination in long-term care settings. Most respondents suspected that staff and residents of care facilities discriminate against GLBTs. GLBT respondents who believed that residents of care facilities are victims of discrimination were more likely to believe that they would have to hide their sexual orientation if admitted to a care facility. GLBT respondents were more likely than heterosexual respondents to believe that GLBTs do not have equal access to health care and social services, that GLBTs residents of care facilities are victims of discrimination, that GLBT sensitivity training programs would benefit staff and residents of care facilities, and that GLBT retirement facilities would be a positive development for older GLBTs. This study is offered as a preliminary investigation of concerns about GLBT discrimination in health care settings, how concerns are expressed, and the implications of those concerns for health care needs.     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

A new heteroscedastic regression to analyze mass loss of wood in civil construction in Brazil

A heteroscedastic regression based on the odd log-logistic Marshall–Olkin normal (OLLMON) distribution is defined by extending previous models. Some structural properties of this distribution are presented. The estimation of the parameters is addressed by maximum likelihood. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and some scenarios, various simulations investigate the performance of the heteroscedastic OLLMON regression. We use residual analysis to detect influential observations and to check the model assumptions. The new regression explains the mass loss of different wood species in civil construction in Brazil.     

THE USE OF ARCS AND NODES FOR THE DETERMINATION OF CRITICAL PATHS IN PERT/CPM NETWORKS

The critical path in a PERT/CPM network is determined in various textbooks by finding the path with associated minimal slack for the network arcs or by finding the path with associated minimal slack for the network nodes. This paper points out that the use of nodes can result in a network path being incorrectly identified as a path of maximum length.     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS: IMPLEMENTATION OF GOAL PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DUAL-PURPOSE FUNDS*

Goal programming (GP) is designed to resolve allocation problems with conflicting goals. Both goals and constraints are incorporated in the allocational decision, and the objective function is stated in a way that, upon solution, yields a result “as close as possible” to the priority-weighted goals. The present paper applies GP methodology to the investment decision of dual-purpose funds (DPFs), that are required by law to pursue allocational decisions with potentially conflicting objectives. It provides an empirical demonstration that DPF managers could have improved their investment selection and subsequent performance by the use of GP methodology. Finally the paper stresses the importance of sensitivity analysis to improve both the goal-ranking and target-selection aspects of the methodology and provides a limited but illuminating empirical demonstration of post-optimality analysis.