首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   16017篇
  免费   282篇
  国内免费   2篇
管理学   2285篇
民族学   94篇
人才学   5篇
人口学   1469篇
丛书文集   104篇
理论方法论   1721篇
综合类   271篇
社会学   8133篇
统计学   2219篇
  2020年   233篇
  2019年   349篇
  2018年   345篇
  2017年   486篇
  2016年   394篇
  2015年   293篇
  2014年   383篇
  2013年   2599篇
  2012年   509篇
  2011年   484篇
  2010年   388篇
  2009年   397篇
  2008年   406篇
  2007年   443篇
  2006年   397篇
  2005年   440篇
  2004年   449篇
  2003年   344篇
  2002年   388篇
  2001年   408篇
  2000年   338篇
  1999年   325篇
  1998年   275篇
  1997年   249篇
  1996年   236篇
  1995年   233篇
  1994年   230篇
  1993年   242篇
  1992年   219篇
  1991年   228篇
  1990年   202篇
  1989年   198篇
  1988年   196篇
  1987年   192篇
  1986年   165篇
  1985年   208篇
  1984年   212篇
  1983年   194篇
  1982年   175篇
  1981年   136篇
  1980年   155篇
  1979年   156篇
  1978年   138篇
  1977年   127篇
  1976年   129篇
  1975年   140篇
  1974年   124篇
  1973年   97篇
  1972年   77篇
  1971年   72篇
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 21 毫秒
11.
12.
Service-learning programs are not free from challenges brought about by lack of financial support, lack of widespread commitment from professors, community agencies, and recipients of service, and lack of knowledge and insight in students directly involved in such programs. While service-learning initiatives and programs serve positive functions for organizations and individuals, rhetorical accolades for service learning can distort or omit the realities of program implementation and sustained delivery. This paper specifically explores the following challenges connected to service-learning programs: (1) pedagogical difficulties; (2) student limitations; (3) time constraints; and (4) community cooperation.  相似文献   
13.
This article is the first of two consecutive reviews on the major empirical studies which have been carried out in an attempt to estimate the prevalence of child sexual abuse among females. The research is structured in terms of three sample categories: (a) probability and non-probability samples of the general population; (b) college student samples; and (c) clinical inpatient and outpatient samples. This part of the review deals with (a) and (b) and highlights a number of unresolved methodological issues which may contribute to the variance in reported prevalence rates. These include a myriad of definitions of child sexual abuse and different methods of eliciting information on possible histories of abuse. Despite these problems. taken as a whole the prevalence studies indicate the significant numbers of people who have experienced abuse and who are willing to disclose aspects of these abusive experiences.  相似文献   
14.
Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.  相似文献   
15.
16.
The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SEΔ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SEΔ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SEΔ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
17.
18.
Maximum likelihood estimation and goodness-of-fit techniques are used within a competing risks framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of hazard, density, and survivor functions for randomly right-censored variables. Goodness-of- fit techniques are used to fit distributions to the crude lifetimes, which are used to obtain an estimate of the hazard function, which, in turn, is used to construct the survivor and density functions of the net lifetime of the variable of interest. If only one of the crude lifetimes can be adequately characterized by a parametric model, then semi-parametric estimates may be obtained using a maximum likelihood estimate of one crude lifetime and the empirical distribution function of the other. Simulation studies show that the survivor function estimates from crude lifetimes compare favourably with those given by the product-limit estimator when crude lifetimes are chosen correctly. Other advantages are discussed.  相似文献   
19.
Survey data from cross-sectional snapshots give an incomplete picture of the social fabric. Without longitudinal information, planners, practitioners, social scientists and policy makers would be in the dark about dynamics, durations and pathways of human development. Longitudinal data collected in birth cohort studies give a better guide to long-term processes and outcomes and are more informative about the causal relations that are the drivers of disadvantage or success. The content and structure of Britain's Birth Cohort Studies are described to illustrate the challenges of creating and studying longitudinal evidence. Examples of findings and policies based on these prospective longitudinal studies are given, along with a discussion of the practical decisions that have to be confronted in undertaking them.  相似文献   
20.
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号