Some Observations,a Suggestion,and Some Comments on the Conway-Roberts Article

This article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and applies them to a large-scale new Keynesian model. We approximate the DSGE model by a vector autoregression, and then systematically relax the implied cross-equation restrictions and document how the model fit changes. We also compare the DSGE model's impulse responses to structural shocks with those obtained after relaxing its restrictions. We find that the degree of misspecification in this large-scale DSGE model is no longer so large as to prevent its use in day-to-day policy analysis, yet is not small enough to be ignored.     

Flexible Bivariate Count Data Regression Models

The article develops a semiparametric estimation method for the bivariate count data regression model. We develop a series expansion approach in which dependence between count variables is introduced by means of stochastically related unobserved heterogeneity components, and in which, unlike existing commonly used models, positive as well as negative correlations are allowed. Extensions that accommodate excess zeros, censored data, and multivariate generalizations are also given. Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application to tobacco use confirms that the model performs well relative to existing bivariate models, in terms of various statistical criteria and in capturing the range of correlation among dependent variables. This article has supplementary materials online.     

Modeling Endogenous Mobility in Earnings Determination

ABSTRACT

We evaluate the bias from endogenous job mobility in fixed-effects estimates of worker- and firm-specific earnings heterogeneity using longitudinally linked employer–employee data from the LEHD infrastructure file system of the U.S. Census Bureau. First, we propose two new residual diagnostic tests of the assumption that mobility is exogenous to unmodeled determinants of earnings. Both tests reject exogenous mobility. We relax exogenous mobility by modeling the matched data as an evolving bipartite graph using a Bayesian latent-type framework. Our results suggest that allowing endogenous mobility increases the variation in earnings explained by individual heterogeneity and reduces the proportion due to employer and match effects. To assess external validity, we match our estimates of the wage components to out-of-sample estimates of revenue per worker. The mobility-bias-corrected estimates attribute much more of the variation in revenue per worker to variation in match quality and worker quality than the uncorrected estimates. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Naturing the Nation: Aliens,Apocalypse, and the Postcolonial State

The purpose of this study is to understand how the British Canadian Frank Schofield transformed himself into an established missionary scholar and nobleman in Korea. The study employs its framework from the structure of cultural exchange itself in its survey of Schofield's career. It examines the relevant aspects of Korean and Western cultures, and the characteristics of Schofield who linked them. The case, including themes significant both to Korean and Western cultures, such as the importance of spirituality, an emphasis on education, and the ideals of justice and love, explains reasons for his success as a cultural mediator between Korea and the West. It reveals that the flow of information and ideas between Koreans and Schofield illustrates the ability of intercultural contact to influence the initiating as well as receiving culture. It suggests that such a distinction between sender and receiver may carry little ultimate significance. Finally, it argues that individuals of different cultures can convey information and ideas effectively only if the conveyer learns about the target individuals for the information and ideas, and communicates on the basis of that knowledge, as intercultural communications occur between the individuals of different cultures.     

Reflections on liberalism,policulturalism, and ID-ology: citizenship and difference in South Africa

How do nation-states in the twenty-first century, nation-states increasingly forced to come to terms with the ethnic heterogeneity of their citizens, deal with the problem of cultural difference? How, in particular, does the Constitution of post-apartheid South Africa — widely believed to be the most enlightened in the contemporary world, the most tolerant of diversity — strike a balance between the ‘One Law’ of ‘The Nation’ and the plurality of customary beliefs sustained, as a matter of right, by the various peoples who make up this postcolony? What happens, in the course of everyday existence, when Constitution and Custom appear to contradict one another — and to do so in such a manner as to raise questions of basic human rights, of freedom of belief, even of life-and-death? These questions are addressed in the paper through a critical, broadly situated analysis of the confrontation between the Constitution of South Africa and the Kingdom of Custom that continues to prevail in one of its provinces, the North West. By exploring a complicated case that drew the State, via its Human Rights Commission, into open conflict with a Tswana chiefdom — a case about death rituals argued, before a high court judge, in the lexicon of modern jurisprudence — it shows how a ‘living constitution’, tolerant of everyday ambiguity, is being forged in the space of strategic engagement opened up by the alternative languages and cultures of legality that exist in this ‘policultural’ postcolony. And in others like it.     

A political profile of Protestant minorities in Europe

This article uses a large volume of data – in particular, surveys – to explore the character of Protestant identity in contemporary European states. It distinguishes three contexts. First, in the Nordic and certain adjacent states, the dominance of Protestantism was complete, but more recent secularisation has provoked a reaction from Christian parties, which enjoy strong support from active Protestants. Second, in certain states that in the past were predominantly Protestant, and where the ethos of the state was aggressively so, a significant Catholic minority was counter-mobilised politically, but as the dominant state-building parties became increasingly secular, committed Protestants reacted in different ways, including the formation of splinter parties (as in the Netherlands and Switzerland) or working within the traditional parties (as in Great Britain and Germany). Third, in a few states there has traditionally been a small Protestant minority, which has played a significant role in national development, but in these cases (mainly successor states to the Habsburg monarchy) decades of communist rule have largely obliterated what might have been distinctive patterns of political behaviour. The article explores variation in group identity patterns and in attitudes towards the state in those cases for which appropriate survey data are available, and devotes particular attention to the position within the United Kingdom, where religion has played a prominent role in the state- and nation-building process.     

H-likelihood: problems and solutions

In recent issues of this journal it has been asserted in two papers that the use of h-likelihood is wrong, in the sense of giving unsatisfactory estimates of some parameters for binary data (Kuk and Cheng, 1999; Waddington and Thompson, 2004) or theoretically unsound (Kuk and Cheng, 1999). We wish to refute both these assertions.     

Data skeletons: simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive streaming datasets with applications to density estimation

We consider the problem of density estimation when the data is in the form of a continuous stream with no fixed length. In this setting, implementations of the usual methods of density estimation such as kernel density estimation are problematic. We propose a method of density estimation for massive datasets that is based upon taking the derivative of a smooth curve that has been fit through a set of quantile estimates. To achieve this, a low-storage, single-pass, sequential method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive datasets that form the basis of this method of density estimation. For comparison, we also consider a sequential kernel density estimator. The proposed methods are shown through simulation study to perform well and to have several distinct advantages over existing methods.     

On the Breslow–Holubkov estimator

Breslow and Holubkov (J Roy Stat Soc B 59:447–461 1997a) developed semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation for two-phase studies with a case–control first phase under a logistic regression model and noted that, apart for the overall intercept term, it was the same as the semiparametric estimator for two-phase studies with a prospective first phase developed in Scott and Wild (Biometrica 84:57–71 1997). In this paper we extend the Breslow–Holubkov result to general binary regression models and show that it has a very simple relationship with its prospective first-phase counterpart. We also explore why the design of the first phase only affects the intercept of a logistic model, simplify the calculation of standard errors, establish the semiparametric efficiency of the Breslow–Holubkov estimator and derive its asymptotic distribution in the general case.     

The birthday problem

Happy Birthday! If it is not your birthday today, it may well be the birthday of someone in your office, or in your class at school. Possibly, it is the birthday of two people in your office or your class. Just how big does a group have to be before its members are likely to share a birthday? Mario Cortina Borja and John Haigh explain the birthday problem.