Der Wandel der Konsumstruktur in Deutschland – ein Indiz für die Individualisierung von Lebensstilen oder doch die Folge soziodemografischer Entwicklungen?The change of consumption patterns in Germany – an evidence of the individualization of lifestyles or the effect of socio-demographic changes?

Following the results of different empirical studies the consumption patterns of German households changed significantly during the last decades. While this change was attributed to a dissolving correlation between lifestyle and social status for a long time, more and more studies focus on the relationship of lifestyle and socio-demographic criteria again. This report analyses the effects of social composition regarding age, income and households types on the use of income between 1978 and 2008. The results of the decomposition analysis reveal that the socio-demographic components cannot explain the change of consumption patterns in Germany. Rather it seems that different social conditions during socialisation affect lifestyles and should be considered when analysing consumption patterns.     

MEASURING THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

Earlier work found evidence for geographic linkages of aggregate foreign direct investment across countries and country‐pairs. From a theoretical point of view, such linkages at the macroeconomic level may root in between‐firm as well as within‐firm linkages and originate from information spillovers across or within firms in exploring unknown markets, and vertical linkages between production plants across different locations within the firm. We use data on the universe of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) to empirically explore how marginal investments at one foreign affiliate depend on investments at other affiliates within the same MNE. The empirical approach employs two channels or modes of cross‐affiliate interdependence: mere geography (capturing horizontal linkages through correlated learning and horizontal competition within the firm) and input–output relationships within or across industries (which capture vertical linkages). Adding to earlier findings at the aggregate level, we find evidence of a significant interdependence of investments within the firm. In the firm‐level data at hand, vertical linkages appear to be more important than horizontal ones. Investments at one location tend to stimulate investments at other locations of the same MNE, particularly if input linkages are strong. The opposite seems to be true for output linkages. Beyond vertical linkages, mere geographic proximity matters only to a minor extent. This suggests that evidence of linkages through geographic closeness at aggregate data levels accrue mainly to reasons of vertical linkages within networks of affiliates. (JEL C31, D22, F21, F23, F68, G31, H32)     

The Alliance Experience Transfer Effect: The Case of Industry Convergence in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry

A central premise of the industry change literature is that firms change their strategic actions when an industry changes. Industry convergence (IC), the blending of boundaries between industries creating competition among firms that previously did not compete, is increasingly impacting many industries and is a salient case of industry change. Acquisitions are an important action shaping the course of IC because they trigger imitation and bandwagon effects further accelerating IC. This paper focuses on why and when learning from alliances reduces uncertainty resulting in acquisitions during IC: an ‘alliance experience transfer effect’. We demonstrate the utility of this mechanism for the substitution‐based form of IC that occurred between the telecommunications equipment and computer networking industries. Our key insight is that when the extent of IC is low there are significant transfer effects but, as the extent of IC increases, firms have access to an expanding volume and diversity of information sources that reduce uncertainty, thus weakening the transfer effect mechanism. We contribute to the alliance–acquisition relationship and learning literatures by demonstrating that the alliance experience transfer effect mechanism explains changes in firm strategic action (alliancing and acquiring) as the extent of IC changes. We also introduce a semi‐convergence perspective by directly measuring the extent of IC.     

Need,well‐being and outcomes: the development of policy‐thinking for children's services 1989–2004

This paper describes how government policy thinking about the well‐being of children and young people developed between the Children Act 1989 and the Children Act 2004. These two Acts are milestone statements about how services to children in England and Wales should be delivered. It is an account informed by the author's own experience as a government adviser on children's social care over much of this period and supporting documentation. It traces the strands of government policy thinking about how to deliver services for children from children in need to the articulation of the five Every Child Matters outcomes. It argues that attempts to achieve coordinated service planning for children and young people played a significant role in the formulation of shared objectives and the articulation of child outcomes. However, it argues that looking at real outcomes exposes how children in the UK do relatively badly compared with other rich nations. It questions whether we can realistically expect our services to deliver significantly improved outcomes given the impact of enduring inequality in our society. This paper is dedicated to the memory of David Lambert CBE, former Assistant Chief Inspector of the Social Services Inspectorate in London, who died suddenly on 7 October 2010. He lent me articles to assist me in writing this paper.     

Tanzania's Cotton Sector: Reforms,Constraints and Challenges

This article contributes to the liberalisation debate in Africa by assessing the policy reforms in the Tanzanian cotton sector, the outcome of which has been mixed. The grower's share in the fob price has increased; the growers receive payments promptly; the ginning capacity has increased considerably. However, supply response did not take place; the input distribution system collapsed, while the mixing of cotton varieties constitutes a threat to the viability of the sector. The co‐operative unions figure prominently in the sector, although for all practical purposes they are bankrupt enterprises. Taxation is excessive, the tax code is complicated and tax evasion is pervasive. The cotton board and the ministries still overregulate the sector. The quality of statistics remains poor.     

A monte carlo evaluation of response surface analysis based on paired-comparison data

The use of the logit transformation on paired-comparison data in the weighted least squares analysis of response surfaces for aesthetic qualities of products is discussed. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to investigate the small sample properties of the estimators and test statistics. A secondary objective of the Monte Carlo simulations is the comparison of two transformation procedures. The simulations are of standard-item paired-compar-ison experiments in which ties are not allowed.     

Consensus in the Marital Dyad: Couples' Perceptions of Contraception,Communication, and Family Life

Abstract

The present study was based on data collected (separately for husbands and wives) from 365 couples to determine levels of consensus on a series of variables related to the family forming process. Following Scheff (1967), consensus was operationalized as both agreement and coorientation in the marital dyad. The data generally indicated low levels of consensus on such variables as contraceptive efficacy, desired family size, child spacing, unwanted pregnancies, communication with spouse, and levels of alienation. The results are discussed within the framework of family planning and effective fertility control.     

The Black Worker: Race,Labor, and Civil Rights since Emancipation (2007)

P. J. Cain and A. G. Hopkins, British Imperialism: Innovation and Expansion, 1688–1914 (1993), xiv + 490; British Imperialism: Crisis and Deconstruction, 1914–1990 (1993), xiii + 326 (Longman, London, £17.99 and £3.99).

W. D. Rubinstein, Capitalism, Culture, and Decline in Britain, 1750–1990 (1993), viii + 182 (Routledge, London, £25.00).

Stanley Chapman, Merchant Enterprise in Britain: From the Industrial Revolution to World War I (1992), xvi + 336 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £40.00).     

Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.