Career mobility as a Poisson process: An application to the career dynamics of men and women in the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from the Civil War to World War II

Poisson process models of upward mobility in job rewards are developed and estimated using event history techniques on data from one organization over a period of 80 years. The models developed permit the inclusion of independent variables which vary over a person's career and are used to analyze differences in the mobility of men and women. The main findings are (1) the career dynamics of men and women are similar in general form, both best described by a segmented, heterogeneous, and nonstationary Poisson process; (2) parametric differences exist between the models for men and women in terms of how certain independent variables affect the rate of arrival of opportunities to move up in the reward hierarchy and in terms of how others affect the rate of being given or taking advantage of such opportunities; and (3) both men and women appear to benefit by being in competition with one another for available opportunities. Theoretical interpretations of these results are discussed in relation to differences in the flow of opportunities to locations in the reward hierarchy occupied predominantly by men versus those occupied predominantly by women.     

Biological Markers of Environmental and Ecological Contamination: An Overview

An approach, using biomarkers (biological responses) for assessing the biological and ecological significance of contaminants present in the environment is described. Living organisms integrate exposure to contaminants in their environment and respond in some measurable and predictable way. Responses are observed at several levels of biological organization from the biomolecular level, where pollutants can cause damage to critical cellular macromolecules and elicit defensive strategies such as detoxication and repair mechanisms, to the organismal level, where severe disturbances are manifested as impairment in growth, reproduction, developmental abnormalities, or decreased survival. Biomarkers can provide not only evidence of exposure to a broad spectrum of anthropogenic chemicals, but also a temporally integrated measure of bioavailable contaminant levels. A suite of biomarkers are evaluated over time to determine the magnitude of the problem and possible consequences. Relationships between biomarker response and adverse ecological effects are determined from estimates of animal health and population structure.     

The role of the psychologist in formulating,administering and evaluating policies associated with economic and social development in western society

The paper (which draws heavily on the results of surveys of civic culture, human resources, and evaluations of educational policy) argues that major changes have come about in the way in which our society is organised. These changes mean that neither the economic market-place nor democracy function in the ways in which they are generally believed to operate. As a result, if modern society is to function effectively, we not only need new concepts of money, equality, democracy, bureaucracy and the role of the citizen, we also need new mechanisms to provide for choice and variety, to evaluate policy, and to hold public servants, managers and institutions accountable for their actions. Psychologists have a crucial role to play in developing the understandings and tools which are needed.     

The hazards of strategic planning for global markets

Global strategic marketing planning has emerged as a key process in managing today's worldwide marketplace. This survey of 90 large American global corporations reveals that most are bottom-up planners. US firms appear to have distinct cost and numbers orientations. Industry and competitive analyses are used in many companies, although managers appear to lack suitable frameworks for SWOT analyses. Economic climate changes tend to be most disruptive to global planning efforts. When faced with non-achievement of goals, most firms reformulate both objectives and strategies.     

Unionism and voter turnout

Conventional wisdom suggests that union members and their families are more politically active, and more likely to vote, than nonmembers. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first systematic empirical examination of that conventional wisdom. Results suggest that union members are more likely than nonmembers to vote in a general election, and that union campaign efforts increase voter turnout generally. There is no evidence, however, that union family members are more likely to vote than nonmembers, or that union status affects an individual’s likelihood of voting in a primary election. The authors wish to thank Robert Perloff, Donna Sockell, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This study was partially supported by a Columbia University Graduate School of Business Faculty Research Fellowship and a Faculty Research Grant from the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Business.     

Coherency conditions for finite exchangeable inference

Summary We idenify the invertible coherent functional relation between an array of asserted conditional probabilities and the probability distribution for the sum of events that are regarded exchangeably, in the regular case thatP(N _N+1 |S _N =a) ∈ (0, 1) for everya=0, 1, ...,N. The result is used to construct a useful algebraic and geometrical representation of all coherent inferences in the regular case, including those that are nonlinear in the sum of the conditioning events. The special case in which conditional probabilities mimic observed frequencies within (0, 1) receives an exact solution, which allows an easy interpretation of its surprising consequences. Finally, we introduce a new direction in research on prior opinion assessment that this approach, inverse to the usual one, suggests.