Adolescent Protective Factors Promoting Resilience in Young Adults at Risk for Depression

In a longitudinal, community-based study, adolescent protective factors for those at risk for depression were identified that were associated with resilient outcomes in young adulthood. For those with childhood risk factors for major depression, significant protective factors included family cohesion, positive self appraisals, and good interpersonal relations. Findings may help inform the development of prevention and treatment programs for adolescents vulnerable to depression. Implications for future research and clinical practice are discussed.     

Can social systems be autopoietic? Assessing Luhmann's social theory

The theory of autopoiesis, that is systems that are self‐producing or self‐constructing, was originally developed to explain the particular nature of living as opposed to non‐living entities. It was subsequently enlarged to encompass cognition and language leading to what is known as second‐order cybernetics. However, as with earlier biological theories, many authors have tried to extend the domain of the theory to encompass social systems, the most notable being Luhmann. The purpose of this article is to consider critically the extent to which the theory of autopoiesis, as originally defined, can be applied to social systems ‐ that is, whether social systems are autopoietic. And, if it cannot, whether some weaker version might be appropriate.     

Fire and restoration of the largest urban forest of the world in Rio de Janeiro City,Brazil

National Park of Tijuca in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is about 3,300 ha and considered the largest urban forest in the world. Its floristic composition is typical of Atlantic Rain Forest. The reserve is being altered because of fire occurrences and urban expansion. This study identified locations and causes of forest fires, and makes management recommendations to restore damaged areas. From 1991 to 2000, forest firefighters recorded an average of 75-fire occurrences/year. Identified causes included hot air balloons (24%), intentional (24%), rubbish burning (21%) and religious practices (17%). Primary fuels included invasive grasses and ferns. Although hot air balloons destroyed larger areas of forest in each occurrence, a greater number of fires started in the invasive vegetation along roads that bisect the forest. In response to recurrent forests, invasive vegetation has spread gradually into the forest increasing forest degradation. To decrease fire damage, sites with high fire frequencies and density of invasive vegetation were planted with less flammable species. Results indicate that fire frequency decreased and density of invasive vegetation declined. This approach appears to prevent fire incidence, reduce the need for fire fighting, and preserve existing biodiversity.     

森林可持续经营的政策支持体系——亚太区域示范林项目中国临安示范林实践

运用参与性诊断(即PRRA)方法对临安示范林地区的森林经营主要政策进行了诊断分析,找出了现行政策存在的问题,如:政策环境欠佳,产权政策不到位,税费政策不合理,林业产品生产、加工和销售脱节,森林生态效益补偿政策欠规范、不合理等.同时,运用参与性设计的方法对若干主要政策进行专项设计,并在此基础上,从优化森林可持续经营的政策环境和规范政策系统运行两方面入手,提出一套科学、合理和有效的适合当地水平的森林可持续经营综合设计方案,以促进示范林网络的发展.     

Dairy Farm Survival in a Metropolitan Area: Dutchess County,New York, 1984–19901

Abstract The effect of nonfarm development on dairy farm survival in New York's highly developed lower Hudson Valley is analyzed. The major hypothesis is that significant losses of dairy farms during this period are the result of urban development pressures. Contrary to this hypothesis, however, the bivariate and multivariate analyses of data from a mail survey of all commercial dairy operators in Dutchess County as of 1984 and industry survivors, exiters, and new entrants through 1990 demonstrate that nonfarm development has a negligible effect on dairy farm survival; rather, survival is significantly affected by age of operator and by family disruption. Thus, demographic and family process factors are found to be more powerful determinants of dairy farm survival in this particular metropolitan context.     

A review of the epidentiological research on child sexual abuse. Community and college student samples

This article is the first of two consecutive reviews on the major empirical studies which have been carried out in an attempt to estimate the prevalence of child sexual abuse among females. The research is structured in terms of three sample categories: (a) probability and non-probability samples of the general population; (b) college student samples; and (c) clinical inpatient and outpatient samples. This part of the review deals with (a) and (b) and highlights a number of unresolved methodological issues which may contribute to the variance in reported prevalence rates. These include a myriad of definitions of child sexual abuse and different methods of eliciting information on possible histories of abuse. Despite these problems. taken as a whole the prevalence studies indicate the significant numbers of people who have experienced abuse and who are willing to disclose aspects of these abusive experiences.     

对林业税费的经济学分析

该文运用经济学的基本工具———供给和需求曲线 ,以商品林为研究对象 ,探讨了林业税费的作用机理和内涵。该文认为商品林生产具有正的外部性 ,市场失灵使生产者将不能提供社会真正所需要的商品林数量。在封闭的市场条件下 ,林业税费会直接成为价格的一部分 ,商品林生产者应当能够获得正常利润 ,与税费高低无关 ,但会使一部分林地退出生产。林业补贴是一种负的林业税收。在开放市场经济条件下 ,国内商品林供应量低于没有林业税收时的商品林供应量 ,更低于考虑社会生态需求时的商品林供应量 ,造成巨大的社会福利损失 ,应减免林业税费、增加林业扶持、取消价格管制。该文进一步研究了与林业税费密切相关的森林采伐限额政策 ,认为对商品林应该完全取消采伐限额政策     

浅谈外语学院教学管理工作

教学管理是教学工作运转的支柱,教学管理的优劣影响着教学质量。该文介绍了外语学院教学管理工作的基本内容,包括教学任务的布置落实、教学检查、教学文件的建设、学籍管理,以及结合学院的实际情况完善考试制度、制定成绩管理细则和考试结果奖励办法等。     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.