Completing the Demographic Transition

Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions.     

Did fertility go up after the oklahoma city bombing? An analysis of births in metropolitan counties in Oklahoma, 1990–1999

Political and sociocultural events (e.g., Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 and the German reunification in 1989) and natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Hugo in 1989) can affect fertility. In our research, we addressed the question of whether the Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995, a man-made disaster, influenced fertility patterns in Oklahoma. We defined three theoretical orientations--replacement theory, community influence theory, and terror management theory--that motivate a general expectation of birth increases, with different predictions emerging from time and geographic considerations. We used two different empirical methodologies. First, we fitted dummy-variable regression models to monthly birth data from 1990 to 1999 in metropolitan counties. We used birth counts to frame the problem and general fertility rates to address the problem formally. These analyses were organized within two design structures: a control-group interrupted time-series design and a difference-in-differences design. In these analyses, Oklahoma County showed an interpretable, consistent, and significant increase in births. Second, we used graphical smoothing models to display these effects visually. In combination, these methods provide compelling support for a fertility response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Certain parts of each theory helped us organize and understand the pattern of results.     

Trends in reproductive behavior among young single women in Colombia and Peru: 1985–1999

Using "calendar" data for single women aged 15-24 from successive Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in Colombia and Peru during the 1990s, we document trends, year by year, in sexual activity, the use of contraceptives, and subsequent reproductive outcomes. We provide evidence of the important and hitherto largely untapped potential of DHS calendar data to draw complete sexual and reproductive profiles when data from various surveys are integrated. Over the period 1985-1999, young single women in both Colombia and Peru became sexually active at younger ages. The use of contraceptives, especially the use of condoms, increased but did not fully offset the rise in sexual activity, and thus the incidence of premarital conceptions rose among young single women. In both countries, sharp declines occurred in the proportion of premaritally conceived births that were reported as being wanted.     

Correlates of gay and lesbian couples' relationship satisfaction and relationship dissolution

A sample of committed gay and lesbian cohabiting couples engaged in two conversations after being apart for at least 8 hours: (a) an events of the day conversation and (b) a conflict resolution conversation. Physiological data were collected during the conversations and a videotape record was made. Couples viewed the videotapes and rated their affect during the interaction. The video records were coded with a system that categorized specific affects displayed. Models derived from physiology, from the perception of interaction, and from specific affective behavior were related to relationship satisfaction, and to the prediction of relationship dissolution over a 12-year period. Results supported previous findings that satisfaction and stability in gay and lesbian relationships are related to similar emotional qualities as in heterosexual relationships.     

Gender and Aging in the Developing World: Where Are the Men?

In recent years, both population aging and gender issues have gained prominence in international forums concerned with population. It is frequently asserted or implied that older women are universally more vulnerable to social, economic, and health disadvantages than older men. The most significant manifestation of this exclusive concern with women when considering gender and aging is the Plan of Action adopted by the Second World Assembly on Aging in 2002. The assumed relative disadvantage of elderly women is commonly attributed to gender differences in earlier life experiences. But are older women truly disadvantaged globally with respect to all or most essential aspects of well‐being? The authors provide empirical evidence that clearly shows that older women are not invariably disadvantaged vis‐à‐vis men. In particular, they call into question the wisdom and equity of a virtually exclusive emphasis on the needs of women when incorporating gender concerns into policies and programs related to aging. A more balanced perspective that recognizes gender as a potential, but not necessarily central, marker of vulnerability for various aspects of well‐being in specific settings and times, and that allows for male as well as female disadvantage, would serve the current and future elderly generations far better.     

Francophone life satisfaction and civic culture: A meta-analysis of the Canadian case

Inglehart's notion that variation in civic culture accounts for cross-national differences in life satisfaction is tested for the case of Canadian Francophones. The data base is 15 national level surveys, containing in total 96 satisfaction questions asked between 1963 and 1991. It is contended that Quebec, the home of the majority of Canada's Francophones, historically has had a comparatively weak civic culture, which from Inglehart's hypothesis would predict low satisfaction. Using graphical analysis of general life satisfaction data this prediction is upheld, with the exception of a brief interval in the late 1970s. The same conclusion is reached using all 96 data points in a weighted least squares meta regression analysis, containing variables to denote five separate domains of satisfaction     

Why people feel crowded: An examination of objective and subjective crowding

Prior studies have found only a modest relationship between objective and subjective crowding, defying logic and commonsensical notions of why people feel crowded. Using data from a representative sample of Bangkok, Thailand, where the level of household crowding is four times that in western societies, we explore several possibilities of why this is the case. Examining seven different indicators of objective crowding, our analyses suggest that the modest relationship is not an artifact of measurement. Contrary to the assumption of prior investigations, the findings indicate that the objective-subjective crowding relationship is nonlinear and that there is a ceiling effect muting the impact of increased objective crowding. The analyses further suggest that the strength of the relationship is mitigated somewhat, with part of the feeling of being crowded accounted for by household circumstances, such as the degree of control an individual has over the use of household space.     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Iris Chi, Neena L. Chappell, and James Lubben (eds.), Elderly Chinese in Pacific Rim Countries: Social Support and Integration Wayne A. Cornelius, Thomas J. Espenshade, and Idean Salehyan (eds.), The International Migration of the Highly Skilled: Demand, Supply, and Development Consequences in Sending and Receiving Countries Bimal Ghosh (ed.), Managing Migration: Time for a New International Regime? Institute of Medicine, Forum on Emerging Infections, Emerging Infectious Diseases from the Global to the Local Perspective: Workshop Summary Hans‐Peter Kohler, Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective David Kyle and Key Koslowski (eds.), Global Human Smuggling: Comparative Perspectives Brian C. O'Neill, F. Landis Mackellar, and Wolfgang Lutz, Population and Climate Change Neil J. Smelser and Paul B. Baltes (eds.), International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences Thomas Spira, Nationalism and Ethnicity Terminologies: An Encyclopedic Dictionary and Research Guide, vol. 1 Li Zhang, Strangers in the City: Reconfigurations of Space, Power, and Social Networks within China's Floating Population     

Population and the energy problem

When energy is scarce or expensive, people can suffer material deprivation and economic hardship. When it is obtained in ways that fail to minimize environmental and political costs, these too can threaten human wellbeing in fundamental and pervasive ways. The energy problem today combines these syndromes: much of the world's population has too little energy to meet basic human needs; the monetary costs of energy are rising nearly everywhere; the environmental impacts of energy supply are growing and already dominant contributors to local, regional, and global environmental problems (including air pollution, water pollution, ocean pollution, and climate change); and the sociopolitical risks of energy supply (above all the danger of conflict over oil and the links between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons) are growing too. This predicament has many causes, but predominant among them are the nearly 20-fold increase in world energy use since 1850 and the cumulative depletion of the most convenient oil and gas deposits that this growth has entailed, resulting in increasing resort to costlier and/or environmentally more disruptive energy sources. The growth of world population in this period was responsible for 52% of the energy growth, while growth in per capita energy use was responsible for 48% (excluding causal connections between population and energy use per capita). In the United States in the same period, population growth accounted for 66% of the 36-fold increase in energy use. In the late 1980s, population growth was still accounting for a third of energy growth both in the United States and worldwide. Coping with global energy problems will require greatly increased investment in improving the efficiency of energy enduse and in reducing the environmental impacts of contemporary energy technologies, and it will require financing a transition over the next several decades to a set of more sustainable (but probably also more expensive) energy sources. The difficulty of implementing these measures will be greatest by far in the developing countries, not least because of their high rates of population growth and the attendant extra pressures on economic and managerial resources. If efficiency improvements permit delivering the high standard of living to which the world aspires based on a per capita rate of energy use as low as 3 kilowatts—about a quarter of the current U.S. figure—then a world population stabilized at 10 billion people would be using energy at a rate of 30 terawatts, and a population of 14 billion would imply 42 terawatts (compare 13.2 terawatts in 1990). Delivering even the lower figure at tolerable monetary and environmental costs will be difficult; each additional billion people added to the world population will compound these difficulties and increase energy's costs, making everyone poorer.Presented at the Symposium on Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions.