Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long‐term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long‐term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short‐term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a “budget constraint” determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy—the expected pattern of future state‐contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions—matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long‐term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy‐induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.     

Behavior in Multi‐Unit Demand Auctions: Experiments with Uniform Price and Dynamic Vickrey Auctions

We experimentally investigate the sensitivity of bidders demanding multiple units of a homogeneous commodity to the demand reduction incentives inherent in uniform price auctions. There is substantial demand reduction in both sealed bid and ascending price clock auctions with feedback regarding rivals' drop‐out prices. Although both auctions have the same normal form representation, bidding is much closer to equilibrium in the ascending price auctions. We explore the behavioral process underlying these differences along with dynamic Vickrey auctions designed to eliminate the inefficiencies resulting from demand reduction in the uniform price auctions.     

Blazing the Trail: Eight Years of Change in Handling International Development

Rarely do serving senior civil servants speak in public or write for the record: that has tended to be the prerogative of the ministers whom they support. Until February 2002, Sir John Vereker was Permanent Secretary of the UK Department for International Development (DFID). He was invited to address an audience of politicians and development experts, at the All‐Party Parliamentary Group on Overseas Development, on his unique experience of serving for equal periods as head of the former Overseas Development Administration and DFID, at a time of intense policy change. He secured the assent of his Secretary of State and the Editors of Development Policy Review judged that his contribution deserved to be read by a wider audience.     

Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries

Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-specific age groups than does the Peto-Lopez method. An adjustment factor is also introduced to account for low mortality in the indirect method’s study population. These modifications are shown to be useful specifically in the estimation of deaths attributable to smoking for females at older ages, and in the estimation of smoking-attributable mortality more generally. In a comparison made between the United States and France with the modified method, smoking is found to be responsible for approximately one-half the difference in life expectancy for females at age 65.     

Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda, 1999–2000: Panel Data Evidence

To explore factors underlying growth and poverty reduction in Africa while overcoming some of the limitations of cross‐country analysis, this article uses micro‐level survey and panel‐data evidence from Uganda spanning 1992–2000. The high elasticity of both income growth and poverty reduction with respect to agricultural output (coffee) prices confirms the benefits from Uganda's decisive liberalisation of output markets. It also suggests the importance of product diversification to protect the poor against price shocks and the potential of cotton‐market improvements in tackling persistent poverty in the North. The importance of improving access to basic education and health care emerges more clearly than in cross‐country analysis, but benefits depend on complementary investments in electricity and other infrastructure, and reductions in civil strife.     

A Great Place to Start: The Role of Military Service on Human Capital Formation

The earnings of African–American males have increased over the past 50 years, but differences remain in their economic progress relative to either white or Asian Americans. Labor market disadvantages in the past were the result of overt discrimination; however, the earnings gap experienced over the last four decades has been linked to human capital differences. It is hypothesized that military service provides a buffer for adverse labor market characteristics for young African–American males and this paper discusses the returns from military service as reflected in their post–service wages.     

An agenda for future research regarding the mental health of young people with care experience

Young people who are currently or were previously in state care have consistently been found to have much higher rates of mental health and neurodevelopmental difficulties than the general youth population. While a number of high-quality reviews highlight what research has been undertaken in relation to the mental health of young people with care experience and the gaps in our knowledge and understanding, there is, until now, no consensus, so far as we aware, as to where our collective research efforts should be directed with this important group. Through a series of UK wide workshops, we undertook a consultative process to identify an agreed research agenda between those with lived experience of being in care (n = 15), practitioners, policy makers and researchers (n = 59), for future research regarding the mental health of young people with care experience, including those who are neurodiverse/have a neurodevelopmental difficulty. This consensus statement identified 21 foci within four broad categories: how we conceptualize mental health; under-studied populations; under-studied topics; and underused methodologies. We hope that those who commission, fund and undertake research will engage in this discussion about the future agenda for research regarding the mental health of young people with care experience.     

Screening children with a history of maltreatment for post-traumatic stress disorder in frontline social care organizations: A process evaluation

The use of standardized screening tools to identify trauma exposure and associated symptoms is commonly recommended as a key component in the development of trauma informed services and is seen as integral to facilitating access to evidence-based therapies. However, there is limited evidence in the UK about the factors influencing the adoption of such tools into routine practice in children's social care. This paper presents the findings from a process evaluation of how practitioners implemented a screening tool for post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression into their day-to-say practice and what worked or did not work during the process. The findings from this study highlight the potential benefits for both young people and practitioners, alongside some of the challenges involved. In particular, practitioners need to see the direct benefit for young people of being assessed. Additionally, practitioners value regular mentoring as they become more proficient in using standardized screening tools.