俄罗斯东正教的社会整合与道德教化作用研究

俄罗斯是一个有着深刻宗教情结的民族.东正教作为文化现象和意识形态,深深根植于俄罗斯民众的意识里,浓浓地融入俄罗斯民族的精神中,深刻地影响着俄国的历史与现实.为实现国家统一并加强皇权,以君权神授为宗旨的基督教作为最有力的思想武器被罗斯统治者"请入"罗斯.至此,无论是在鞑靼蒙古人入侵时期,还是在第一、二次卫国战争等俄苏历史的紧要关头,俄罗斯东正教均发挥了其社会整合与道德教化作用,并在促进国家统一、弘扬爱国主义传统、凝聚民族精神、规范民众道德和维护社会稳定等方面做出了积极而重要的历史贡献.     

约束优化问题的异步并行拟牛顿方法

提出了一种求解等式约束优化问题的异步并行拟牛顿方法 .若假设目标函数 f和约束函数h至少三次连续可微 ,且△h(x)对任意x∈Rn 均为满秩矩阵 ,证明了所提出的异步并行算法是 q—超线性收敛的 .     

英语引申意境的探析

英语中的引申是一种普遍现象。英译汉时不仅有时词义要引申。词组、分句或句子的含义有时也要引申,英语引申的意境,可以从褒与贬、抽象与具体、词义搭配、概念大小、逻辑修辞、引申层次和引申范围七个不同方面来探析。     

南朝文人“诗以用事为博”的文化考察

在皇权政治复归、士族政治势力逐渐被边缘化的南朝,士族文人为维护其门第以应对前所未有的挑战,向学术文化的深广处开掘,博学融通,试图以繁密、新奇的使事用典建构文学的防线,从而掀起了中国文学史上"诗以用事为博"的第一个高潮。     

Local influence in multilevel models

The authors study the local influence of observations in multilevel regression models. To this end, they perturb simultaneously the variances, responses and design matrix. To measure the local change caused by these perturbations, they use generalized Cook statistics for the fixed and random parameter estimates. Closed form local influence measures also allow them to assess the joint influence of various observations. They suggest a simple computation method and illustrate their results using two examples.     

Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

美国军队管理革命的开拓者——鲁特

伊莱休·鲁特针对美西战争中暴露出的美军事指挥和军队体制方面的问题，进行了五项改革：1．设立总参谋部；2．设立陆海军联合委员会；3．通过《国防法》，成立国民警卫队；4．对军队编制进行改革；5．军事教育改革。经过改革，美军事统帅体制提高了效率，军队编制趋向合理，为20世纪美国进行新的战争做好了准备。他是美国军事管理革命的开拓者。     

Risk management: a general framework for rural development

This paper proposes a new concept of rural development in an uncertain world. The nature of risk and uncertainty is discussed and risk management is defined as a positive model of economic and social behaviour. Some relevant paradigms for rural development are reviewed and evaluated within the general approach of risk management. It is demonstrated that the proposed view of risk management can effectively combine and reconcile different approaches by highlighting their advantages and shortcomings. Departing from a subjective definition of risk management, we progressively include its social dimensions which introduce both complexity and structure into the process of rural development.     

Choice of the primary analysis in longitudinal clinical trials

Missing data, and the bias they can cause, are an almost ever‐present concern in clinical trials. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach has been frequently utilized to handle missing data in clinical trials, and is often specified in conjunction with analysis of variance (LOCF ANOVA) for the primary analysis. Considerable advances in statistical methodology, and in our ability to implement these methods, have been made in recent years. Likelihood‐based, mixed‐effects model approaches implemented under the missing at random (MAR) framework are now easy to implement, and are commonly used to analyse clinical trial data. Furthermore, such approaches are more robust to the biases from missing data, and provide better control of Type I and Type II errors than LOCF ANOVA. Empirical research and analytic proof have demonstrated that the behaviour of LOCF is uncertain, and in many situations it has not been conservative. Using LOCF as a composite measure of safety, tolerability and efficacy can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effectiveness of a drug. This approach also violates the fundamental basis of statistics as it involves testing an outcome that is not a physical parameter of the population, but rather a quantity that can be influenced by investigator behaviour, trial design, etc. Practice should shift away from using LOCF ANOVA as the primary analysis and focus on likelihood‐based, mixed‐effects model approaches developed under the MAR framework, with missing not at random methods used to assess robustness of the primary analysis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.