纪念邓小平《党和国家领导制度的改革》发表22周年

本文重温邓小平同志１９８０年８月关于《党和国家领导制度的改革》的讲话，概括指出：一、其三个方面的内容：实行党政分开；适当分权；改革干部人事制度。二、政治体制改革的原则方针：改革必须坚持社会主义方向；改革必须要有利于坚持和加强党的领导。三、政治体制改革的目标取向：发展社会主义民主，走民主的制度化、法制化道路。深刻领会该讲话精神，对于推动我国新世纪的政治体制改革具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。     

要理直气壮地进行共产主义理想教育

应用SPSS10.0统计软件对我校学前教育专业98级44名学生的18门课程成绩进行了因素分析，据此探讨学前教育专业学生的能力结构，并对该专业的课程设置和改革提供若干建议。     

烹调油烟的免疫毒理学研究进展

烹调油烟是室内主要空气污染物之一，化学成分复杂，严重影响职业接触人群的健康．对烹调油烟免疫毒性的研究是全面评价其毒性作用的一个重要方面．对近几年来烹调油烟影响机体细胞免疫、体液免疫和巨噬细胞以及NK细胞功能等免疫毒性方面的研究进展作一综述．     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论发达地区农村社会阶层结构的变迁——以绍兴县西蜀阜村为例

此文以绍兴县西蜀阜村为例,基于对大量翔实资料的实证分析,阐述和探讨了经济发达的农村社区在农村工业化和城市化过程中,村落社会结构分化的历史进程、决定因素和现实状况,探讨了阶层分化与农村社会经济变迁的关系,对深化沿海发达地区中心镇村现代化进程的认识,有一定的借鉴意义。     

试论和谐社会理念中家庭教育文化的培育

在构建社会主义和谐社会理念指导下，和谐的家庭教育文化培育之路应是：树立家庭和谐教育理念，确立和谐教育目标，抓住重点内容，运用和谐教育方式，建设和谐家庭环境。     

Estimation of Hazard, Density and Survivor Functions for Randomly Censored Data

Maximum likelihood estimation and goodness-of-fit techniques are used within a competing risks framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of hazard, density, and survivor functions for randomly right-censored variables. Goodness-of- fit techniques are used to fit distributions to the crude lifetimes, which are used to obtain an estimate of the hazard function, which, in turn, is used to construct the survivor and density functions of the net lifetime of the variable of interest. If only one of the crude lifetimes can be adequately characterized by a parametric model, then semi-parametric estimates may be obtained using a maximum likelihood estimate of one crude lifetime and the empirical distribution function of the other. Simulation studies show that the survivor function estimates from crude lifetimes compare favourably with those given by the product-limit estimator when crude lifetimes are chosen correctly. Other advantages are discussed.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

现代性批判:一种从政治哲学立场出发的考察——对恒久和普遍的美好生活原则的辩护

当前西方危机与现代性危机最深刻的症候,是在其最高知识权威的影响下,现代后期的某些学说(列奥·施特劳斯所谓的历史主义、相对主义学说)撼动了西方人的根基,人们丧失了方向感。这种理论上的危机带来的实际后果主要表现在:一种本来意义上的政治哲学所要求的普遍有效方式去解答对错、好坏问题不再可能。既然现代性的危机源于对现代政治哲学隐含的这个前提的表达,那么,现代性批判的中心课题是对现代理性主义或对理性之现代信仰的批判,它逻辑地包含了对恒久和普遍美好生活原则的辩护,试图恢复人们的自信,以便能够合理地赋予价值判断以效力。     

BUILDING THE EVIDENCE BASE FROM LONGITUDINAL DATA

Survey data from cross-sectional snapshots give an incomplete picture of the social fabric. Without longitudinal information, planners, practitioners, social scientists and policy makers would be in the dark about dynamics, durations and pathways of human development. Longitudinal data collected in birth cohort studies give a better guide to long-term processes and outcomes and are more informative about the causal relations that are the drivers of disadvantage or success. The content and structure of Britain's Birth Cohort Studies are described to illustrate the challenges of creating and studying longitudinal evidence. Examples of findings and policies based on these prospective longitudinal studies are given, along with a discussion of the practical decisions that have to be confronted in undertaking them.