Michael E. Ketzenberg  Erwin van der Laan  Ruud H. Teunter 《Production and Operations Management》2006,15(3):393-406

We explore the value of information (VOI) in the context of a firm that faces uncertainty with respect to demand, product return, and product recovery (yield). The operational decision of interest in matching supply with demand is the quantity of new product to order. Our objective is to evaluate the VOI from reducing one or more types of uncertainties, where value is measured by the reduction in total expected holding and shortage costs. We start with a single period model with normally distributed demands and returns, and restrict the analysis to the value of full information (VOFI) on one or more types of uncertainty. We develop estimators that are predictive of the value and sensitivity of (combinations of) different information types. We find that there is no dominance in value amongst the different types of information, and that there is an additional pay‐off from investing in more than one type. We then extend our analysis to the multi‐period case, where returns in a period are correlated with demands in the previous period, and study the value of partial information (VOPI) as well as full information. We demonstrate that our results from the single period model (adapted for VOPI) carry‐over exactly. Furthermore, a comparison with uniformly distributed demand and return show that these results are robust with respect to distributional assumptions.  相似文献   

    

Michael Dotsey  Robert G. King 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2006,4(5):893-928

Though built with increasingly precise microfoundations, modern optimizing sticky price models have displayed a chronic inability to generate large and persistent real responses to monetary shocks, as recently stressed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2000). We trace this lack of persistence to a standard view of the cyclical behavior of real marginal cost built into current sticky price macro models. Using a fully articulated general equilibrium model, we develop an alternative perspective on real marginal cost that leads to substantial persistence. Based on an important role for materials input, variable capacity utilization, and labor adjustment on the extensive margin, this alternative view also makes the sticky price model display volatility and comovement of factor inputs and factor prices more closely in line with conventional wisdom about business cycles and various empirical studies of the dynamic effects of monetary shocks. (JEL: E31 E32)  相似文献   

    

Michael R. Greenberg  Reya Sinha 《Risk analysis》2006,26(5):1275-1289

A survey was conducted of approximately 200 Asian Indian Americans and 200 other residents of New Jersey in order to understand the risk management priorities that they want government to have. We found that Asian Indian Americans, especially younger women, focused on personal/family risks, such as alcohol and drug abuse, sexual abuse, and domestic violence. The New Jersey comparison group, in contrast, placed war/terrorism and loss of health care services and insurance at the top of their priorities for government. These results suggest stressful acculturation-related issues within the Asian Indian community. Both populations want more risk management from government than they believe government is currently providing. Respondents who wanted more from government tended to dread the risk, be fearful of the consequences, trust government, and have a feeling of personal efficacy. Within the Asian Indian American sample, wide variations were observed by language spoken at home and religious affiliation. Notably, Muslims and Hindi language speakers tended not to trust government and hence wanted less government involvement. This study supports our call for studies of recent migrant populations and Johnson's for testing ethnic identity and acculturation as factors in risk judgments.  相似文献   

    

Michael J. Armstrong 《决策科学》2004,35(4):639-664

We propose an arbitration model framework that generalizes many previous quantitative models of final offer arbitration, conventional arbitration, and some proposed alternatives to them. Our model allows the two disputants to be risk averse and assumes that the issue(s) in dispute can be summarized by a single quantifiable value. We compare the performance of the different arbitration procedures by analyzing the gap between the disputants' equilibrium offers and the width of the contract zone that these offers imply. Our results suggest that final offer arbitration should give results superior to those of conventional arbitration.  相似文献   

  总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Michael C. Kohn 《Risk analysis》2002,22(3):623-631

Because ethical considerations often preclude directly determining the human health effects of treatments or interventions by experimentation, such effects are estimated by extrapolating reactions predicted from animal experiments. Under such conditions, it must be demonstrated that the reliability of the extrapolated predictions is not excessively affected by inherent data limitations and other components of model specification. This is especially true of high-level models composed of ad hoc algebraic equations whose parameters do not correspond to specific physical properties or processes. Models based on independent experimental data restricting the numerical space of parameters that do represent actual physical properties can be represented at a more detailed level. Sensitivities of the computed trajectories to parameter variations permit more detailed attribution of uncertainties in the predictions to these low-level properties. S-systems, in which parameters are estimated empirically, and physiological models, whose parameters can be estimated accurately from independent data, are used to illustrate the applicability of trajectory sensitivity analysis to lower-level models.  相似文献   

    

Michael J. Brusco  Tony R. Johns 《决策科学》1998,29(2):499-515

Service operations that utilize cross-trained employees face complex workforce staffing decisions that have important implications for both cost and productivity. These decisions are further complicated when cross-trained employees have different productivity levels in multiple work activity categories. A method for policy analysis in such environments can be beneficial in determining low-cost staffing plans with appropriate cross-training configurations. In this paper, we present an integer linear programming model for evaluating cross-training configurations at the policy level. The objective of the model is to minimize workforce staffing costs subject to the satisfaction of minimum labor requirements across a planning horizon of a single work shift. The model was used to evaluate eight cross-training structures (consisting of 36 unique cross-training configurations) across 512 labor requirement patterns. These structures, as well as the labor requirement patterns, were established based on data collected from maintenance operations at a large paper mill in the United States. The results indicate that asymmetric cross-training structures that permit chaining of employee skill classes across work activity categories are particularly useful.  相似文献   

    

Gray  George M.  Allen  Jon C.  Burmaster  David E.  Gage  Stuart H.  Hammitt  James K.  Kaplan  Stanley  Keeney  Ralph L.  Morse  Joseph G.  North  D. Warner  Nyrop  Jan P.  Stahevitch  Alina  Williams  Richard 《Risk analysis》1998,18(6):773-780

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.  相似文献   

    

Dennis A. Rondinelli  Michael A. Berry 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》1998,17(3):17-26

In an effort to strategically structure its supply and customer linkages to gain a competitive edge in its industry, Shaw Industries, the world's largest manufacturer of tufted carpets and floor coverings, realized the benefit of integrating proactive environmental management practices into its value chain. This article examines the competitive challenges facing Shaw Industries, describes its strategy for integrating its value chain, assesses its experience in combining environmental management with value-chain leadership, and explores various lessons for other companies that are competing globally in mature industries.  相似文献   

    

J. Michael Lemon 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》1995,14(3):61-67

The cottage industry associated with furniture manufacture is a thing of the past. Today's furniture giants like Masco Home Furnishings, with its $1.7 billion in annual sales, have transformed a sleepy industry into a formidable manufacturing weapon. This article focuses on one small portion of the Masco Home Furnishings empire. The transformation taking place at the Henredon Furniture Industries frame plant is indicative of what can happen when modern management techniques are coupled with an aggressive use of technology and world-class manufacturing principles.  相似文献   

    

Michael E. Milakovich 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》1994,14(1):73-84

When considering the implementation of quality-improvement (QI) strategies, public-sector organizations must grapple with a host of economic and political concerns that do not generally affect their privatesector counterparts. This article examines the diffusion of quality initiatives in state and local governments within the context of several models of change. It also discusses the role of leadership and employee empowerment in removing barriers to high performance in the public sector.  相似文献