Probability Size Matters: The Effect of Foreground-Only versus Foreground+Background Graphs on Risk Aversion Diminishes with Larger Probabilities

Graphs are increasingly recommended for improving decision-making and promoting risk-avoidant behaviors. Graphs that depict only the number of people affected by a risk (“foreground-only” displays) tend to increase perceived risk and risk aversion (e.g., willingness to get vaccinated), as compared to graphs that also depict the number of people at risk for harm (“foreground+background” displays). However, previous research examining these “foreground-only effects” has focused on relatively low-probability risks (<10%), limiting generalizability to communications about larger risks. In two experiments, we systematically investigated the moderating role of probability size on foreground-only effects, using a wide range of probability sizes (from 0.1% to 40%). Additionally, we examined the moderating role of the size of the risk reduction, that is, the extent to which a protective behavior reduces the risk. Across both experiments, foreground-only effects on perceived risk and risk aversion were weaker for larger probabilities. Experiment 2 also revealed that foreground-only effects were weaker for smaller risk reductions, while foreground-only displays decreased understanding of absolute risk magnitudes independently of probability size. These findings suggest that the greater effectiveness of foreground-only versus foreground+background displays for increasing perceived risk and risk aversion diminishes with larger probability sizes and smaller risk reductions. Moreover, if the goal is to promote understanding of absolute risk magnitudes, foreground+background displays should be used rather than foreground-only displays regardless of probability size. Our findings also help to refine and extend existing theoretical accounts of foreground-only effects to situations involving a wide range of probability sizes.     

Big data in family firms: A socioemotional wealth perspective

Since about 2010, big data analysis has drastically changed the landscape of information management by becoming a central topic in the academic literature of several fields. Despite the significant contribution of family firms to the economic fabric worldwide and their unique decision-making processes, there is a lack of research investigating big data in family-owned businesses. To address this gap, this article draws on the socioemotional wealth (SEW) perspective and its FIBER model to conceptually investigate its role in family firms’ decision to implement big data. We introduce a set of propositions and a framework linking the FIBER dimensions to the likeliness of implementing big data in family firms. Our research thus contributes to a more fine-grained understanding of the decision-making process in family firms.     

The use of military bunkers by the European badger and red fox in Western Europe

Urban Ecosystems - Intensification of agriculture and land consolidation policy induced the removal of most natural features from farmland, reducing the habitat of many wild species. Abandoned WWII...     

Reframing the History of the Competition Concept: Neoliberalism,Meritocracy, Modernity

This paper reframes the concept of competition, arguing that recent tendencies to frame it in the context of neoliberalism are too narrow to grasp its full significance. We need to see how it operates well beyond the capitalist economy, as a social and not just theoretical concept. I contextualise it in a deeper history, going back to the eighteenth century, beginning with an empirical examination of the development of the concept in English language dictionaries and encyclopaedias, using a method of ‘conceptual history’. I show how the concept, its grammatical forms, and characteristic associations have evolved substantially since the eighteenth century. This finding is placed in a broader explanatory context, arguing that it is the combined rise of a set of core institutions of modernity, not just capitalism but also democracy, adversarial law, science, and civil society, that deeply embeds competition in the modern world. The decline of aristocratic and religious authority, and the national subordination of martial power, opened the way for more ‘liberal’ forms of society in which authority is routinely contested through competition, across economy, politics, culture and beliefs. Appreciating this is a necessary step towards truly grappling with the effects of competition on modern life.     

Beyond household walls: the spatial structure of American extended kinship networks

ABSTRACT

How far do Americans live from their close and extended kin? The answer is likely to structure the types of social, instrumental, and financial support that they are able to provide to one another. Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, kin pairs vary widely in odds of household co-residence, co-residence in the same administrative units, and inter-tract distances if they do not live in the same census tract. Multivariate regression tests show that family structure, educational attainment, and age are closely associated with kin proximity. Fixed-effects models demonstrate that family formation shapes spatial relations between kin.     

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk-Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard

This article describes a methodology for risk-informed benefit–cost analyses of homeland security research products. The methodology is field-tested with 10 research products developed for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk-informed benefit–cost analysis is a tool for risk management that integrates elements of risk analysis, decision analysis, and benefit–cost analysis. The cost analysis methodology includes a full-cost accounting of research projects, starting with initial fundamental research costs and extending to the costs of implementation of the research products and, where applicable, training, maintenance, and upgrade costs. The benefits analysis methodology is driven by changes in costs and risks leading to five alternative models: cost savings at the same level of security, increased security at the same cost, signal detection improvements, risk reduction by deterrence, and value of information. The U.S. Coast Guard staff selected 10 research projects to test and generalize the methodology. Examples include tools to improve the detection of explosives, reduce the costs of harbor patrols, and provide better predictions of hurricane wind speeds and floods. Benefits models and estimates varied by research project and many input parameters of the benefit estimates were highly uncertain, so risk analysis for sensitivity testing and simulation was important. Aggregating across the 10 research products, we found an overall median net present value of about $385 million, with a range from $54 million (5th percentile) to $877 million (95th percentile). Lessons learned are provided for future applications.     

Theorising everyday life after acquired brain injury

This paper provides a conceptual argument for the sociological analysis of the everyday experiences of disabled people through the example of acquired brain injury (ABI) survivors. Most research concerning ABI has been carried out within a medical framework. This paper adds a new dimension to research concerning ABI, and indeed, to my knowledge, is the first to explore a long-term, interdisciplinary view of both ABI and neurological rehabilitation. This paper sets out how the use of critical sociological theory can provide thorough analyses of disabled people’s experiences that are free from the pre-judgement of traditional discourses.