Modelling Dependence within Joint Tail Regions

Standard approaches for modelling dependence within joint tail regions are based on extreme value methods which assume max-stability, a particular form of joint tail dependence. We develop joint tail models based on a broader class of dependence structure which provides a natural link between max-stable models and weaker forms of dependence including independence and negative association. This approach overcomes many of the problems that are encountered with standard methods and is the basis for a Poisson process representation that generalizes existing bivariate results. We apply the new techniques to simulated and environmental data, and demonstrate the marked advantage that the new approach offers for joint tail extrapolation.     

Strategic planning could improve your share price

From a financial point of view the long-term ultimate goal of the firm is to maximize its stock price. A high P/E multiple keeps existing stockholders satisfied, reduces the chances that a corporate pirate will attempt to raid the company, and also facilitates the company's own acquisitions.Therefore, financial managers are especially interested in answers to the questions of if and how strategic planning can help to improve the price-earnings multiple. The results of the study summarized in this article answer the first question in the affirmative and give at least a partial answer to the second. Contrary to the conclusion of some other recent studies, this study finds a definite long-term financial payoff from strategic planning. Furthermore, it suggests that strategic planning may be more effective if it is conducted at the corporate rather than solely at the division level.If maximization of stock price is a corporate goal, delegation of strategic planning entirely to the division level may result in a high cost to stockholders.     

Evaluation: Manifestations of a new field

An examination of three characteristics of evaluation reveals significant divisions of opinion, suggesting that it is premature to seek a defining conceptual framework for this still evolving field. Therefore an alternative approach toward understanding evaluation is followed: empirical manifestations of the history and current state of evaluation are examined for evidence of growth and integration.A review of the history of evaluation suggests four causes for its recent growth: new accountability requirements, greater interest among social scientists in social relevance, a scarcity of resources for the traditional social sciences, and an expansion of methods useful for research in applied settings.Three empirical signs of the new field are described: the concepts and strategies employed in evaluation efforts, the discipline of practicing evaluators, and dissemination of evaluation information. The conclusions suggest that there are both signs of cohesiueness and immaturity in the current state of evaluation.     

The development of evaluation as a profession: Current status and some predictions

Sociological models of professionalization are applied to recent events in program evaluation in order to understand the development of the field and to predict future events. The focus is on problems that might arise and on the necessity of ameliorating them. The possibility of eliminating such problems is discounted since they appear to be integral elements of the process of professionalization. Major elements of the analysis include discussions of the consequences of the development of a specialized body of evaluation knowledge, the definition of evaluation tasks, exclusivity in the performance of those tasks, the development of professional associations, and problems in the training of evaluators. The reasons for problems in these areas are presented and the importance of being aware of the origin of the problems is discussed.