国民经济恢复时期基层财政状况分析——以西南地区典型乡镇为例

国民经济恢复时期基层的乡级财政还不是一级完备的财政。各地乡级财政存在不少问题：收支不平衡、行政事业经费开支比例过大、任意摊派,从而影响了乡级政权工作的开展。其中的经验教训对目前的乡村政权建设以及财政体制改革仍有一定的启示。     

Therapeutic residential care in Spain. Population treated and therapeutic coverage

Therapeutic residential care (TRC) is the name given to specialized children's homes for treating cases with severe emotional and behavioural problems that have been placed in residential care. A recent international review has revealed great diversity in the referral criteria of cases and in the models of intervention carried out. The goal of this study is to describe the population treated in these types of facilities in Spain and the therapeutic coverage given. The sample is made up of 215 young people in children's homes, of whom 93 are in TRC. The cases referred to TRC have been in residential care for less time but have gone through a greater number of placements. These young people also exhibit more problems of drug use, and there is a larger percentage of clinical‐range cases in the Child Behaviour Checklist scales of attention problems and aggressive behaviour. Nevertheless, the results of logistic regression indicate that the only variables that significantly increase the probability of being referred to TRC are drug use and changes of care placements. With regard to therapeutic care, there is a higher percentage in the TRC group receiving psychiatric care, and the sessions are also more frequent.     

Bimodality based on the generalized skew-normal distribution

This paper focuses on the development of a new extension of the generalized skew-normal distribution introduced in Gómez et al. [Generalized skew-normal models: properties and inference. Statistics. 2006;40(6):495–505]. To produce the generalization a new parameter is introduced, the signal of which has the flexibility of yielding unimodal as well as bimodal distributions. We study its properties, derive a stochastic representation and state some expressions that facilitate moments derivation. Maximum likelihood is implemented via the EM algorithm which is based on the stochastic representation derived. We show that the Fisher information matrix is singular and discuss ways of getting round this problem. An illustration using real data reveals that the model can capture well special data features such as bimodality and asymmetry.     

The inverse power Lindley distribution in the presence of left-censored data

In this study, classical and Bayesian inference methods are introduced to analyze lifetime data sets in the presence of left censoring considering two generalizations of the Lindley distribution: a first generalization proposed by Ghitany et al. [Power Lindley distribution and associated inference, Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 64 (2013), pp. 20–33], denoted as a power Lindley distribution and a second generalization proposed by Sharma et al. [The inverse Lindley distribution: A stress–strength reliability model with application to head and neck cancer data, J. Ind. Prod. Eng. 32 (2015), pp. 162–173], denoted as an inverse Lindley distribution. In our approach, we have used a distribution obtained from these two generalizations denoted as an inverse power Lindley distribution. A numerical illustration is presented considering a dataset of thyroglobulin levels present in a group of individuals with differentiated cancer of thyroid.     

Modified slashed-Rayleigh distribution

A new family of slash distributions, the modified slashed-Rayleigh distribution, is proposed and studied. This family is an extension of the ordinary Rayleigh distribution, being more flexible in terms of distributional kurtosis. It arises as a quotient of two independent random variables, one being a Rayleigh distribution in the numerator and the other a power of the exponential distribution in denominator. We present properties of the proposed family. In addition, we carry out estimation of the model parameters by moment and maximum likelihood methods. Finally, we conduct a small-scale simulation study to evaluate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators and apply the results to a real data set, revealing its good performance.     

The conditional maximum of Poisson random variables

The conditional maxima of independent Poisson random variables are studied. A triangular array of row-wise independent Poisson random variables is considered. If condition is given for the row-wise sums, then the limiting distribution of the row-wise maxima is concentrated onto two points. The result is in accordance with the classical result of Anderson. The case of general power series distributions is also covered. The model studied in Theorems 2.1 and 2.2 is an analogue of the generalized allocation scheme. It can be considered as a non homogeneous generalized scheme of allocations of at most n balls into N boxes. Then the maximal value of the contents of the boxes is studied.     

A reweighting approach to robust clustering

An iteratively reweighted approach for robust clustering is presented in this work. The method is initialized with a very robust clustering partition based on an high trimming level. The initial partition is then refined to reduce the number of wrongly discarded observations and substantially increase efficiency. Simulation studies and real data examples indicate that the final clustering solution has both good properties in terms of robustness and efficiency and naturally adapts to the true underlying contamination level.     

The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts

Do exogenous economic shocks promote civil conflicts directly? Do they affect all the societies alike? The current approach presents a large sample panel data evidence not only on the effect of commodity export price shocks on conflict incidence, rather than onsets, but also on the joint impact of both ethnic and religious polarization and fractionalization on political instability. In this regard, we find out that in ethnically polarized societies, the commodity export price shocks increase violence. Nonetheless, in ethnically and religiously fractionalized societies (as well as religiously polarized), the effect of commodity export price shocks on civil conflicts depends on the type of income shocks and category of commodity. These findings contribute to the existing literature by illuminating the compound effect of both income shocks and social diversity on intrastate conflicts.     

比较法视野下西方国家检察机关提起公诉证明标准考察——以完善我国检察机关提起公诉证明标准为视角

在考察西方国家提起公诉证明标准的基础上分析其特征及其发展规律,详细阐述我国提起公诉证明标准的现状,对完善庭前审查程序的设想,对于实体法事实和程序法事实适用差别性的证明标准都有详尽的论述。将＂被告人被判决有罪的较大可能性＂作为实体法事实的一般证明标准,将＂可以推定事实存在＂作为程序法事实的一般证明标准。