Bayesian robustness of the compound Poisson distribution under bidimensional prior: an application to the collective risk model

The distribution of the aggregate claims in one year plays an important role in Actuarial Statistics for computing, for example, insurance premiums when both the number and size of the claims must be implemented into the model. When the number of claims follows a Poisson distribution the aggregated distribution is called the compound Poisson distribution. In this article we assume that the claim size follows an exponential distribution and later we make an extensive study of this model by assuming a bidimensional prior distribution for the parameters of the Poisson and exponential distribution with marginal gamma. This study carries us to obtain expressions for net premiums, marginal and posterior distributions in terms of some well-known special functions used in statistics. Later, a Bayesian robustness study of this model is made. Bayesian robustness on bidimensional models was deeply treated in the 1990s, producing numerous results, but few applications dealing with this problem can be found in the literature.     

Improving and measuring transparency in NGOs: A disclosure index for activities and projects

Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are established not with the aim of making profits but rather to provide social values by implementing different projects and activities. Transmitting complete information about these projects to society is a key element of transparency, as they operate within an atmosphere of public trust. Although there is a large body of literature on transparency in NGOs from a global perspective, very little research has been conducted on transparency within the area of projects and activities. This study takes a deeper look at this line and contributes to the literature on transparency in NGOs by proposing an index to measure the information transparency of the projects implemented by these organizations. The index captures three dimensions of the information about the projects (technical, financial, and scope) and makes it possible to: analyze the level of transparency of the portfolio of projects, detect the specific aspects that could be improved in each organization, and carry out comparisons among organizations.     

Individual Pension Plans in Spain: How Expected Change in Future Income and Liquidity Constraints Shape the Behavior of Households

Understanding the motives that underlie Spaniards’ retirement saving decisions is important because many, if not most, future retirees will need to rely on personal savings to maintain a decent standard of living. The governor of the Bank of Spain has stated recently that the current public pension system will not guarantee an adequate pension to the citizens, advising to save now for retirement. In this debate on public pensions, and the complementary role that private pensions might play in Spain, this article has shed light on the decision of Spanish households to engage in individual pension plans and it has identified which factors determine the total amount saved in such retirement plans. Using micro data from the Bank of Spain (Survey of Household Finances 2011), the analysis has revealed that the expectations of lower future income, along with preferences for the financial risk and education, exert an important influence on the likelihood of enrolling in a private pension plan. University education minimizes the myopic behavior of households in the sense of making them more forward-looking and cautious in the face of their future well-being. Additionally using Heckman’s methodology to correct for the problem of selection bias, our results have revealed that liquidity constraints affect negatively the total amount of money saved for retirement.     

Urban habitats can affect body size and body condition but not immune response in amphibians

Does urbanization affect key life-history traits in native organisms? Some studies show that urban areas reduce diversity in certain taxa, but there is little insight into how these environments affect physiological and ecological traits. Urban areas have distinct physical structure and ecological processes compared to original habitats. The environmental changes associated with urban areas can influence the costs and benefits of different traits and behaviors of local organisms. Some of these effects have been explored in groups such as birds, but we might expect stronger effects in animals with reduced mobility, such as amphibians. Importantly, the effects of urban habitats on amphibians have not been explored, in spite that these are the most threatened vertebrate group in the world. Here, we compared three main traits related to the fitness of amphibians in urban and natural habitats: body size, body condition and immune response. To test the generality of our results, we assessed adult males of four amphibian species. We found that the body size was larger in urban environment populations in three of four studied species, while the body condition was better in the urban populations of two aquatic newt species. Finally, we found no effect of urbanization on the immune response of individuals of any species. In conclusion, we show that different species of amphibians may be affected differently by anthropogenic habitat alteration depending on their specific ecology.     

Digital media,subcultural activity and youth participation: the cases of protest rap and graffiti in Portugal

Over the last decade, we have witnessed the emergence of an academic debate surrounding the relationship between youth and the ‘new media’, with a particular emphasis on the social uses of different digital technologies within the sphere of youth activity. A specific area of research has been dedicated to studying the use of digital media in the context of the so-called youth subcultures. With this article we expect to contribute to this ongoing debate, by examining the problem through an analysis of two interconnected case studies: protest rap and illegal graffiti. Both cases may be defined as subcultures, insofar as they are characterized as alternative, subterranean, and to a certain extent, subversive movements. The empirical ground for this discussion is based on several investigations, with a qualitative basis, carried out by the authors in the course of over a decade in Portugal. This extended time frame allowed ample access to a diversified and matured analytical material and enabled a better perspective of the developments and the mutations involving the appropriation of the digital media. Our researches have shown that digital media and technologies have been gradually integrated in these urban youth subcultures, accomplishing several strategic roles.     

Marginal models for the association structure of hierarchical binary responses

Clustered binary responses are often found in ecological studies. Data analysis may include modeling the marginal probability response. However, when the association is the main scientific focus, modeling the correlation structure between pairs of responses is the key part of the analysis. Second-order generalized estimating equations (GEE) are established in the literature. Some of them are more efficient in computational terms, especially facing large clusters. Alternating logistic regression (ALR) and orthogonalized residual (ORTH) GEE methods are presented and compared in this paper. Simulation results show a slightly superiority of ALR over ORTH. Marginal probabilities and odds ratios are also estimated and compared in a real ecological study involving a three-level hierarchical clustering. ALR and ORTH models are useful for modeling complex association structure with large cluster sizes.     

Adaptation of the short version of the Psychological Capital Questionnaire (PCQ-12) into Spanish / Adaptación al español de la versión reducida del Cuestionario de Capital Psicológico (PCQ-12)

Psychological capital (PsyCap) has been a topic of increasing interest in the last decade. However, there is a lack of validated instruments in Spanish to map PsyCap and its consequences for individuals’ well-being. Consequently, the goal of this study is to adapt the 12-item short version of the Psychological Capital Questionnaire (PCQ-12) to the Spanish context by analysing its internal consistency and reliability, factor solution and external validity. Results indicated that the PCQ-12 exhibited good Cronbach’s alpha (.87) and omega coefficient (.93) values in a sample from a vehicle inspection company (n = 798). As expected, results also revealed that a second-order factor structure provided the best fit. Moreover, PsyCap is associated with increased job engagement (β = .579; R²_adjusted = .333), decreased job burnout (β = ?.409; R²_adjusted = .166), and lower psychological distress (β = ?.349; R²_adjusted = .121) (all p < .01), which provided additional support for using the PCQ-12 in the Spanish context. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Duration and Recurrence of Unemployment Benefits

Using administrative data for the period 2005–2010, we test for the existence of segmentation in the pool of the unemployed receiving benefits and investigate the factors associated with the duration and recurrence of the receipt of unemployment benefits in Spain. The results suggest the existence of (at least) three groups of individuals, each with different combinations of covered unemployment duration and recurrence. We also find that the impact of the employment crisis has been an increase in the average length of time spent receiving unemployment benefits and the recurrence. Our findings support the hypothesis that not only the heterogeneity but also the previous experience of receipt increase the expected duration of subsequent benefit periods.