Measuring agreement between two statistics with applications to age standardization

Summary.  We detail a general method for measuring agreement between two statistics. An application is two ratios of directly standardized rates which differ only by the choice of the standard. If the statistics have a high value for the coefficient of agreement then the expected squared difference between the statistics is small relative to the variance of the average of the two statistics, and inferences vary little by changing statistics. The estimation of a coefficient of agreement between two statistics is not straightforward because there is only one pair of observed values, each statistic calculated from the data. We introduce estimators of the coefficient of agreement for two statistics and discuss their use, especially as applied to functions of standardized rates.     

Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

Multivariate distributions defined in terms of contours

The paper deals with the problem of using contours as the basis for defining probability distributions. First, the most general probability densities with given contours are obtained and the particular cases of circular and elliptical contours are dealt with. It is shown that the so-called elliptically contoured distributions do not include all possible cases. Next, the case of contours defined by polar coordinates is analyzed including its simulation and parameter estimation. Finally, the case of cumulative distribution functions with given contours is discussed. Several examples are used for illustrative purposes.     

The potential of integrated modelling in conservation biology: A case study of the black‐footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes)

Conservation biology aims at assessing the status of a population, based on information which is often incomplete. Integrated population modelling based on state‐space models appears to be a powerful and relevant way of combining into a single likelihood several types of information such as capture‐recapture data and population surveys. In this paper, the authors describe the principles of integrated population modelling and they evaluate its performance for conservation biology based on a case study, that of the black‐footed albatross, a northern Pacific albatross species suspected to be impacted by longline fishing     

Perceptions of and Responses to Stigma

In the last 10 years, interest in the concept of stigma has grown remarkably throughout the social sciences. Today, stigma is an important topic that bridges many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, social psychology, and public health. This literature review primarily addresses perceptions of and responses to stigma from the insider's or target's perspective. The topics examined in this review include the following: defining stigma, public opinion and attitudes toward the stigmatized, measurement of perceptions of stigma and discrimination, the coping strategies employed by stigmatized persons to deal with stigma, the impact of stigma in terms of psychological and behavioral outcomes, explanations of coping strategies and outcomes, and strategies and interventions to reduce stigma. As many of the concerns faced by stigmatized persons are universal, what has been learned in research about one stigmatized group can provide insight into another. Promising directions for future stigma-related research are identified and discussed.     

UNDERSTANDING THE DECISION TO PARTICIPATE IN A SURVEY

The lack of full participation in sample surveys threatens theinferential value of the survey method. We review a set of conceptualdevelopments and experimental findings that appear to be informativeabout causes of survey participation; offer an integration ofthat work with findings from the more traditional statisticaland survey methodological literature on nonresponse; and, giventhe theoretical structure, deduce potentially promising pathsof research toward the understanding of survey participation.     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.