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11.
Andrea Garcia Tapia Mildred Suarez Jose E. Ramirez‐Marquez Kash Barker 《Risk analysis》2019,39(9):2032-2053
Critical infrastructure networks enable social behavior, economic productivity, and the way of life of communities. Disruptions to these cyber–physical–social networks highlight their importance. Recent disruptions caused by natural phenomena, including Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017, have particularly demonstrated the importance of functioning electric power networks. Assessing the economic impact (EI) of electricity outages after a service disruption is a challenging task, particularly when interruption costs vary by the type of electric power use (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial). In contrast with most of the literature, this work proposes an approach to spatially evaluate EIs of disruptions to particular components of the electric power network, thus enabling resilience‐based preparedness planning from economic and community perspectives. Our contribution is a mix‐method approach that combines EI evaluation, component importance analysis, and GIS visualization for decision making. We integrate geographic information systems and an economic evaluation of sporadic electric power outages to provide a tool to assist with prioritizing restoration of power in commercial areas that have the largest impact. By making use of public data describing commercial market value, gross domestic product, and electric area distribution, this article proposes a method to evaluate the EI experienced by commercial districts. A geospatial visualization is presented to observe and compare the areas that are more vulnerable in terms of EI based on the areas covered by each distribution substation. Additionally, a heat map is developed to observe the behavior of disrupted substations to determine the important component exhibiting the highest EI. The proposed resilience analytics approach is applied to analyze outages of substations in the boroughs of New York City. 相似文献
12.
We address a multi-echelon inventory system with one-warehouse and N -retailers. The demand at each retailer is assumed to be known and satisfied by the warehouse. Shortages are not allowed and lead times are negligible. Costs at each facility consist of a fixed charge per order and a holding cost. The goal is to determine single-cycle policies which minimize the average cost per unit time, that is, the sum of the average holding and setup costs per unit time at the retailers and at the warehouse. We propose a O(NlogN) heuristic procedure to compute efficient single-cycle policies. This heuristic is compared with other approaches proposed by Schwarz, Graves and Schwarz and Muckstadt and Roundy. We carry out a computational study to test the effectiveness of the heuristic and to compare the performance of the different procedures. From the computational results, it is shown that the new heuristic provides, on average, better single-cycle policies than those given by the Muckstadt and Roundy method. 相似文献
13.
Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Unknown Parameters in Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known. 相似文献
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S. Hadi Khazraee Antonio Jose Sáez‐Castillo Srinivas Reddy Geedipally Dominique Lord 《Risk analysis》2015,35(5):919-930
The hyper‐Poisson distribution can handle both over‐ and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation‐specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper‐Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper‐Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway‐highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness‐of‐fit measures indicated that the hyper‐Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper‐Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper‐Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper‐Poisson model can handle both over‐ and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model. 相似文献
17.
Ashley E. Nixon Julie J. Lanz Archana Manapragada Valentina Bruk-Lee April Schantz Jose F. Rodriguez 《Work and stress》2015,29(4):401-419
Occupational accidents and injuries continue to be a critical concern for nurses, given the hazardous healthcare environment. This study advances the research on workplace safety by studying the process variables (i.e. job-related negative affect (JRNA) and job satisfaction) in explaining the relationship between safety climate and various safety criteria in nurses. Based on survey data from 326 nurses, our findings suggest that psychological safety climate is negatively related to JRNA, turnover intentions, safety workarounds, and workplace hazards. In addition, structural equation modelling indicated general support for a model in which psychological safety climate influences employee strain through job attitudes, including JRNA and job satisfaction. More specifically, job attitudes were found to mediate the relationship between psychological safety climate and turnover intentions, experience of hazards, and injuries. Safety workarounds did not significantly relate to injuries. The present study contributes to the ongoing improvement of interventions aimed at mitigating nurses’ injuries by integrating job attitudes into the safety climate–safety outcome framework. 相似文献
18.
Justin R. Garcia Michelle J. Escasa-Dorne Peter B. Gray Amanda N. Gesselman 《心理学和人类性特征杂志》2015,27(4):406-417
Objectives: The current study evaluated women's salivary testosterone and estradiol levels before and after exposure to sexual stimuli in a U.S. sex club. Methods: Behavioral data and salivary samples were collected from 19 women during semistructured interviews. Results: Findings demonstrate substantial individual differences in the magnitude and direction of women's hormonal changes following sexual activity. Conclusions: In an age of individualized medicine, these findings highlight the need to better understand factors shaping variation in physiological responses to sexual activity. Findings contribute to a relatively small and contradictory literature on women's hormonal responses to sexual stimuli. 相似文献
19.
Jose L Tongzon 《The Australian journal of social issues》1987,23(1):63-78
This study attempts to demonstrate the financial viability and economic soundness of adopting a National Support Income Scheme for Australia. The concept, designed to create an environment in which jobs are available for all, relies on three basic propositions including a reduction in wages and other incomes in exchange for receipt of the support income. The demonstration, based on the latest published statistics, indicates that adopting this scheme for Australia can be financially and economically justified. 相似文献
20.
Jose M. Carbo Anupriya Daniel Casas Patricia C. Melo 《Journal of applied statistics》2019,46(9):1714-1723
This paper evaluates economic impacts arising from the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) between Madrid and Barcelona. Using difference-in-differences estimation we estimate an average treatment effect for provinces with stops on the HSR line of 2.4% for economic output, 3.3% for numbers of firms, and 1.1% for labour productivity. We complement our DID results with a synthetic control analysis for Lleida and Tarragona, two provinces that we argue were assigned HSR stations largely due to their incidental location. We find that both the number of firms and labour productivity are substantially higher in these provinces than in their synthetic counterparts. 相似文献