Examining Gambling-Related Crime Reports in the National Finnish Police Register

The aim of this study is to examine the connection between gambling and criminal activity in the National Finnish Police Register. First, a method was created that enabled the search for gambling-related police reports in the National Finnish Police Register. The method is based on finding gambling-related police reports by using gambling-related headwords. Second, all police reports from 2011 that included any mention of gambling were read through (n = 2,233). Suspected gambling-related of crimes (n = 737) were selected from these reports. Those suspected gambling-related crimes were then described and categorized into six different categories: suspected online-related crimes; suspected crimes that were related to lifestyle-gaming; suspected crimes that involved a gambler as a victim of a crime; criminal activity related to problem gambling; casino-connected crimes, and intimate partnership violence resulting from gambling problems. This study, being the first in Finland, generated information on the connection between gambling and criminal activity from the perspective of police reports. Moreover, the study highlights methodological issues that are involved in studying police reports.     

Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations

Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging. In this article, I introduce a stable, open-population model in which cohort net migration is proportional to births. In this case, the migration-fertility trade-off can be studied with particular ease. I show that although migration can increase the growth rate, which tends to make the age distribution younger, it also has an opposite effect because of its typical age pattern. I capture the effect of the age pattern of net migration in a migration-survivor function. The effect of net migration on growth is quantified with data from 17 European countries. I show that some countries already have a level of migration that will lead to stationarity. For other countries with asymptotically declining population, migration still provides opportunities for slowing down aging of the population as a whole.     

Scenarios, Uncertainty and Conditional Forecasts of the World Population

Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort–component methodology used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world population will exceed the high scenario of 10 736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is only about 51% that the high–low interval of a recent United Nations (UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider the UN high–low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future population.     

Job-strain and well-being among Finnish social workers: exploring the differences in occupational well-being between child protection social workers and social workers without duties in child protection

Work-related mental distress and its impact on employees’ working life is a mounting issue among Finnish social workers. This article focuses on identifying the factors associated with child welfare social workers’ occupational well-being. The occupational well-being of Finnish child welfare social workers (N?=?364) and social workers whose duties do not include child protection work (N?=?524) was explored and compared with each other using t-test statistics and logistic regression analysis. The data, collected in 2014/2015, were obtained from an ongoing longitudinal cohort study on work-related well-being among Finnish public sector employees. A multi-dimensional and holistic approach to occupational well-being was used as the outline for the analysis and comparison of the two groups. Child protection social workers reported higher levels of burnout and secondary traumatic stress than social workers without child protection duties. Despite these burdens, both groups showed a similar level of general health, compassion satisfaction and overall occupational well-being. Individual and organizational factors associated with high occupational well-being were identified. Supervision was found to be an important supporting element. This study identified multiple determinants related to social workers’ occupational well-being, comprising positive and negative elements with regard to organizational and individual factors.     

Gaussian Scale Mixture Models for Robust Linear Multivariate Regression with Missing Data

We present an algorithm for multivariate robust Bayesian linear regression with missing data. The iterative algorithm computes an approximative posterior for the model parameters based on the variational Bayes (VB) method. Compared to the EM algorithm, the VB method has the advantage that the variance for the model parameters is also computed directly by the algorithm. We consider three families of Gaussian scale mixture models for the measurements, which include as special cases the multivariate t distribution, the multivariate Laplace distribution, and the contaminated normal model. The observations can contain missing values, assuming that the missing data mechanism can be ignored. A Matlab/Octave implementation of the algorithm is presented and applied to solve three reference examples from the literature.     

Unavoidable regularities in long words with bounded number of symbol occurrences

Traditionally in combinatorics on words one studies unavoidable regularities that appear in sufficiently long strings over a fixed size alphabet. Inspired by permutation problems originating from information security, another viewpoint is taken in this paper. We focus on combinatorial properties of long words in which the number of occurrences of any symbol is restricted by a fixed given constant. More precisely, we show that for all positive integers m and q there exists the least positive integer N(m,q) which is smaller than $m^{2^{q-1}}$ and satisfies the following: If α is a word such that

1. |alph(α)|≥N(m,q) (i.e., the cardinality of the alphabet of α is at least N(m,q)); and
2. |α| _a ≤q for each a∈alph(α) (i.e., the number of occurrences of any symbol of alph(α) in α is at most q),

then there exist a set A?alph(α) of cardinality |A|=m, an integer p∈{1,2,…,q}, and permutations σ ₁,σ ₂,…,σ _p :{1,2,…,m}→{1,2,…,m} for which $$\pi_A(\alpha)\in a_{\sigma_1(1)}^+\cdots a_{\sigma_1(m)}^+a_{\sigma _2(1)}^+\cdots a_{\sigma_2(m)}^+\cdots a_{\sigma_p(1)}^+\cdots a_{\sigma_p(m)}^+ .$$ Here A={a ₁,a ₂,…,a _m } and π _A is the projection morphism from alph(α)^? into A ^?. The second part of the paper considers information security. We give an introduction to (generalized iterated) hash functions and their security properties; finally we demonstrate how our combinatorial results are connected to constructing multicollision attacks on these functions.     

Transnational connections of later-life migrants

In this paper a transnational perspective is used to explain whether and how older migrants construct and sustain their social networks. The paper uses a transnational viewpoint on older migrants' lives by analysing their engagement with their former homeland, and the intensity and habitualness of those engagements in old age. The aim of this article is to study the transnational connections of later-life migrants'. Attention is especially paid to the features of old age while maintaining these connections. These considerations are based on analyses of transnational networks in the everyday lives of later-life migrants from the former Soviet Union residing in Finland. The data were collected from 11 later-life migrants.It is found that transnational relationships are a vital part of the everyday lives of older migrants, and that they are sustained in varied ways. These connections mean a concrete source of help, family affiliations, the sharing of emotions, and a larger social network. Economic limitations affect the frequency and type of communication, and various physical limitations may also cause inability to maintain contacts across borders. In these circumstances, family members or other close relatives or friends are needed to deliver messages on the older person's behalf. Old age and immigration status affect the amount and direction of communication across borders, thereby shaping these networks.     

The Use of Chemical Restraints for Older Long-Term Hospital Patients: A Case Report from Finland

The purpose of this study was to describe the use and concomitant use of psychotropics and other drugs as chemical restraints in the aged in long-term hospital care. The study consisted of 154 patients (42 men, 112 women) hospitalized in five long-term care wards in Pori City Hospital, Finland. Three or more psychotropics were regularly given to 33% of the patients and regularly or irregularly to 53% of the patients. Two or more benzodiazepine derivatives or related drugs were regularly given to 24% of the patients and regularly or irregularly to 46% of the patients. The very poor cognitive and functional abilities of the patients, the common concomitant use of psychotropic drugs, the use of psychotropics to control the behavior of the patients, and the lack of documentation of the effects and side effects of the drugs give rise to the conclusion that psychotropics were used as chemical restraints in these long-term care wards.     

Disability and physical activity in late life—research models and approaches

Prevention of disability in late life has become a major public health concern, a key area of ageing research, and also an important target for the development of effective interventions. The increase in life expectancy and the resulting growth of the elderly population are also thought to be driving up the number of elderly people with disabilities. Despite the message that regular moderate physical activity has substantial health benefits even in very old age, older people remain largely sedentary. The most popular theoretical model for researching the development of disability is the disablement process, which is widely used, in the gerontological literature. The main pathway according to this model leads from diseases and injuries to impairments, functional limitations, and disability. This approach has been challenged most particularly by models, which emphasize the social construction and determinants of disability. Numerous physical exercise interventions have aimed at preventing impairments, functional limitations and disability, and at promoting independent living in late life. A review of the results of these interventions shows that exercise can indeed be effective in preventing impairments and functional limitations, but the evidence regarding the prevention of disability and dependency is inconclusive. The inconsistency of the results is related to differences in research models and approaches, cultural and other differences between the populations studied, and variability in research designs and methods, including definitions of key variables. In the future, research-addressing disability in late life needs to focus on the dynamic interactions between individuals and their social, physical, and cultural environment. Furthermore, randomized trials that are larger and longer than most existing studies of physical activity need to be conducted. Additional evidence can also be obtained by well-conducted observational studies focusing on the prevention of progressive disability related to chronic conditions. One of the key areas of development is in improving the definition of both independent (physical activity and exercise) and outcome (functional limitations, disability) variables. A further challenge is presented by the investigation of dose–response relationships, including both beneficial and possible adverse effects of exercise.