The ties that bind: The effect of clustering on dyadic relationships

This study explores the extent to which one can explain the dynamics of a given relationship or set of relationships by mapping the social network in which they exist. Specifically, it focuses on the effect of cluster membership on the evolution and intensity of dyadic relationships. The results suggest that relationships are as much a product of the social networks of the two individuals involved as of their personal needs, histories or desires.     

On the coefficient of variation for residence time distributions of some stochastic compartmental models

The study of residence time distributions is motivated by the desire to develop new practical tools for the statistical analysis of compartmental systems. In particular, Gibaldi and Perrier (1982) describe three alternative models for a two-compartment system, which were noted to be "indistinguishable based solely on plasma or urinary excretion data," defining a residence time distribution. In this paper, properties of the coefficient of variation of the residence time distributions are developed for these three models. In addition to the standard Markovian model with exponential retention times, properties are also derived for a non-Markovian model with gamma retention times. A coefficient of variation may be estimated from commonly available elimination data, and may be used in principle to discriminate between these three models.     

A Nonstochastic Interpretation of Reported Significance Levels

Tests of significance are often made in situations where the standard assumptions underlying the probability calculations do not hold. As a result, the reported significance levels become difficult to interpret. This article sketches an alternative interpretation of a reported significance level, valid in considerable generality. This level locates the given data set within the spectrum of other data sets derived from the given one by an appropriate class of transformations. If the null hypothesis being tested holds, the derived data sets should be equivalent to the original one. Thus, a small reported significance level indicates an unusual data set. This development parallels that of randomization tests, but there is a crucial technical difference: our approach involves permuting observed residuals; the classical randomization approach involves permuting unobservable, or perhaps nonexistent, stochastic disturbance terms.     

Bank Business Models at Zero Interest Rates

We propose a novel observation-driven finite mixture model for the study of banking data. The model accommodates time-varying component means and covariance matrices, normal and Student’s t distributed mixtures, and economic determinants of time-varying parameters. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that units of interest can be classified reliably into distinct components in a variety of settings. In an empirical study of 208 European banks between 2008Q1–2015Q4, we identify six business model components and discuss how their properties evolve over time. Changes in the yield curve predict changes in average business model characteristics.     

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run,Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark

Effective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released a Stay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide preparedness information of this kind, in large part because of concern about scaring the public. In this survey experiment, 3,003 U.K. and Danish participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: no information, a leaflet intervention, and a film intervention to examine the impact of “Run, Hide, Tell” advice on perceptions about terrorism, the security services, and intended responses to a hypothetical terrorist firearms attack. Results demonstrate important benefits of pre‐event communication in relation to enhancing trust, encouraging protective health behaviors, and discouraging potentially dangerous actions. However, these findings also suggest that future communications should address perceived response costs and target specific problem behaviors. Cross‐national similarities in response suggest this advice is suitable for adaptation in other countries.     

The emotional toll of postfeminist fatherhood

Postfeminism shapes the political economy of the workforce and household, constituting a re-entrenchment of traditional heterosexual gender regimes and the pressure to transgress them. Focusing on the understudied area of postfeminist masculinity, we analyze the emotional toll some fathers experience as a result of the fraught expectations to be the breadwinner, nurturing parent, and enlightened feminist spouse who completes equal domestic duties. Using empirical data of parents’ participation in a family-based health intervention, we argue that the paradoxical expectation to enact traditional gender relations and to adopt gender egalitarianism is exhausting, upsetting, and confusing for fathers. By focusing on the affective dimensions of postfeminism, we demonstrate how working to achieve the impossible expectation of doing “it all,” a bind that women have been caught in for centuries, takes an emotional toll on fathers and couples, leading to discontent at work and home, and in regard to their self-concept, parental role, and spousal relationship. We close by offering counter examples of fathers and couples who have disengaged from postfeminist parenting relations and have reached a state of contentment. Contrary to the alignment of postfeminism with positive affect, the experience of resisting postfeminist resulted in feelings of joy, pride, and satisfaction.     

“There are traitors among us”: On the Emotional Vicissitudes of Populist Politics

This article examines fellowship and accusations of betrayal among members of a populist movement in contemporary Argentina. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork conducted among self-described “militants” of the Kirchnerist movement, a contemporary iteration of Peronism, this work makes a uniquely anthropological intervention into existing literature on populist politics, which tends to focus on populism’s demonization of the enemy of “the people.” In contrast, this article argues that a focus on the demonization of an external enemy misses essential dimensions of the social world of Peronist politics, which is primarily characterized by loving bonds of fellowship between Peronist militants. I show how, in moments of uncertainty, this emphasis on fellowship morphs into a preoccupation with treachery, such that concern with the potential insubordination of one’s fellow Peronists eclipses animus towards external enemies. This article argues for greater attention to the lived experiences of adherents to populist movements to encourage a more holistic and nuanced understanding of the social world of populist politics.     

Patterns of Sensitivity to Parenting and Peer Environments: Early Temperament and Adolescent Externalizing Behavior

Although parenting behavior and friendship quality predict adolescent externalizing behaviors (EBs), individual differences in temperament may differentially affect susceptibility to these factors over time. In a multi‐method and multi‐informant study of 141 children followed prospectively from toddlerhood to adolescence, we tested the independent and interactive associations of age 3 reactive temperament (e.g., negative emotionality) and age 13 observed parenting (i.e., positive and negative behavior) and friendship (i.e., conflict and warmth), with multi‐informant ratings of age 15 aggression and rule‐breaking behavior. Negative parenting predicted growth in parent‐rated EB, but only for adolescents with early reactive temperament. Temperament did not affect sensitivity to positive parenting or friendship. Results are discussed in the context of differential susceptibility theory and intervention implications for adolescents.