Insights into Flood Risk Misperceptions of Homeowners in the Dutch River Delta

Flooding is one of the most significant natural disasters worldwide. Nevertheless, voluntary take-up of individual damage reduction measures is low. A potential explanation is that flood risk perceptions of individual homeowners are below objective estimates of flood risk, which may imply that they underestimate the flood risk and the damage that can be avoided by damage reduction measures. The aim of this article is to assess possible flood risk misperceptions of floodplain residents in the Netherlands, and to offer insights into factors that are related with under- or overestimation of perceived flood risk. We analyzed survey data of 1,848 homeowners in the Dutch river delta and examine how perceptions of flood probability and damage relate to objective risk assessments, such as safety standards of dikes, as well as heuristics, including the availability heuristic and the affect heuristic. Results show that many Dutch floodplain inhabitants significantly overestimate the probability, but underestimate the maximum expected water level of a flood. We further observe that many respondents apply the availability heuristic.     

Similarity perceptions in investor reactions to acquisition announcements

We contribute to an improved understanding of investor reactions to acquisition announcements by building on the recent research in cognitive psychology that distinguishes between the following two types of cognitive similarity assessments: taxonomic and thematic similarity. We theorize and find that investor reactions to taxonomic acquisitions, where synergies are easier to comprehend, are generally more positive than investor reactions to thematic acquisitions, which require higher cognitive processing. We argue that this effect is driven by the cognitive processing of investors, instead of “true” synergy, since the more negative announcement returns for thematic deals reverse a few days after the announcement, converging with the announcement returns of taxonomic deals. Moreover, we find that attempts by the acquiring company to help investors assess thematic acquisitions do not seem to be effective at eliminating this effect and instead appear to aggravate investor suspicion. Overall, our findings contribute to the emerging behavioral perspective of investor reactions to acquisition announcements.     

The Value of Instructional Communication in Crisis Situations: Restoring Order to Chaos

This article explores the nature of instructional communication in responding to crisis situations. Through the lens of chaos theory, the relevance of instructional messages in restoring order is established. This perspective is further advanced through an explanation of how various learning styles impact the receptivity of various instructional messages during the acute phase of crises. We then summarize an exploratory study focusing on the relationship between learning styles and the demands of instructional messages in crisis situations. We conclude the article with a series of conclusions and implications.     

Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools

Bradley (Theory Decis 85:5–20, 2018) develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al. (Test 4:263–314, 1995). We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley (2018) that invalidates his main result.

     

Charm offensive: mediatized country image transformations in international relations

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on what has come to be known as a ‘charm offensive,’ a diplomatic technique countries may use to shift their international image through strategic public relations campaigns utilizing personal magnetism. The charm of the selected representative is meant to appeal to a broad international audience with the hope of improving the country's brand. The paper examines the concept and practice of a charm offensive through two case studies. The first is the Iranian charm offensive during the 2015 negotiations of the nuclear deal with the United States, when Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif aimed to improve his country's controversial international image through gentle, diplomatic communication and an aura of civility. The second case study is the charm offensive of North Korea from the 2018 Winter Olympics until the historic meeting of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald J. Trump in June 2018. Both case studies analyze the media representations of the particular charm offensive in two countries, the United States and a regionally more proximate, and therefore likely more directly affected country: Israel and South Korea, respectively. I argue that quick image-transformations often characterize contemporary, highly mediatized international diplomatic communication. Unlike classical cases of soft power, the temporary alliances forged through charm offensives are not built on shared values, but on momentary appearances, and sometimes on deception.     

"No fertile soil for pathogens": rayon, advertising, and biopolitics in late Weimar Germany

Recent research on twentieth-century German history has begun to re-examine the centrality of race as a category of analysis. While not discounting its importance in the shaping and enacting of Nazi policies and practices, race is seen instead as one among many factors leading to the crimes of the Nazi regime. In this paper, the author considers the role consumerist desires and fantasies played in the wider context of the inter-war European fascination with notions of technology, "hygiene," democracy, and modernity. Using advertisements that were created to promote manufactured-fiber (rayon) apparel, this article suggests that continuities across cultures and time periods necessitate a re-evaluation of race as the signal organizing principal. Instead, the author argues that by complicating the intersections between class, science and technology, and an emerging, but troubling, modernity, 1920s rayon advertising offers an especially rich site for analysis of the ways in which biopolitics and nascent consumerism both sold products and constructed ideologies before 1933, and influenced the post-war welfare state.     

Militarized peace: understanding post-conflict violence in the wake of the peace deal in Colombia

ABSTRACT

After more than 50 years of war, in 2016, the Colombian government signed a historic peace accord with the country’s largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Although the cessation of hostilities between the rebel group and the government is a monumental step, violence remains rife in the country. By drawing attention to the correlation between neoliberal economic development in the country and militarism, this paper sheds light on several structural issues that have been left potentially unresolved by the peace negotiations, each with the potential to ignite further violence. We introduce the concept of militaristic neoliberalism to argue that there is a fundamental link between Colombia’s neoliberal development and a culture of militarism, which relies on gendered and racialized constructions of ‘self’ and ‘other’, that exacerbate structural inequalities and severely hampers prospects for achieving peace for many of Colombia’s citizens post-conflict.