Estimating demographic characteristics using the ratio-correlation method

Studies of the relative accuracy of methods of estimating the population at the substate level have generally found that the greatest degree of accuracy is provided by the ratio-correlation, or regression, method. This paper reports on research aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of this method in estimating the age and race composition of populations at the substate level. In addition to the basic multiple regression equation, variants such as stratification and the averaging of estimates from simple regression equations are also tested. Surprisingly, for Virginia localities the most satisfactory results are generated by the nonstratified multiple regression equation.     

Welfare expenditure and policy orientation in Canada in comparative perspective

J'examine dans cet article les politiques sociales canadiennes pour la période 1960–1983, à lumière des expériences d'autres pays. Les politiques considérées se lisent sur quatre dimensions: dé-marchandisation, solidarité, redistribution et plein emploi. Au regard des dépenses d'autres pays membres de l***'OCDE, les dépenses gouvernementales de consommation civile au Canada sont relativement élevées; elles sont, cependant, principalement cantonnées dans les secteurs de la santé et de l'éducation. Ainsi, les dépenses générates et orientées vers la prévention sont faibles, indiquant la petite taille des budgets consacrés au logement et à la création d'emplois. En ce qui concerne le plein emploi, le Canada est l'un des membres de l'OCDE qui connaissent le moins de succès. Malgré des niveaux de chômage qui demeurent élevés, les dépenses de redistribution sont basses; elles contribuent malgré tout à réduire les inégalités de revenu primaire et elles demeurent plus importantes à ce chapitre que le régime fiscal. Une quantité considérable de données indique que l'Etat-providence canadien est en voie d'être restructuré de façon à redistribuer les bénéfices selon des critères de classe, plutôt que des critères de citoyenneté. This paper examines welfare effort in Canada in the 1960-83 period in the context of cross-national patterns. Welfare effort is considered on four dimensions: decommodification, solidarity, redistribution and full employment. Canada has relatively high government civil consumption expenditure by OECD standards but this consists mostly of health and educational expenditure. General and preventively oriented expenditure is low, reflecting the low expenditure on housing and employment creation. In terms of the full employment dimension Canada is one of the least successful of the OECD welfare states. Despite consistently high unemployment, social transfer expenditure is low but does contribute to the reduction of inequality of primary income and is consistently more important in this regard than the tax system. There is considerable evidence to indicate that the Canadian welfare state is being restructured towards a distribution of benefits based on class rather than citizenship.     

The road to functional flexibility: white collar work and employment relations in a privatised public utility

This paper is concerned with the changing nature of office work in one region of a privatised public utility, which will be referred to as National Utility (NU). It describes how clerical work at NU, traditionally characterised by a detailed division of labour and functional specialism, is being transformed by the introduction of on-line processing and multi-functional team-working. At the same time, NU management is seeking to change the nature and pattern of clerical employment. The intention is to increase the ratio of part time to full time staff, to increase the ‘personal accountability’ of staff, and to move towards a performance-based, rather than a seniority-based, pay and promotion structure. These changes are of some broader theoretical significance. As Batstone et al. (1987) note, much industrial sociology literature has focused on job content as the primary determinant of a number of features of work and employment, including worker autonomy, supervisory styles, and management control strategies. Indeed, much recent industrial sociology, management and institutional economics literature has tended to link employment patterns and conditions, as a whole, with job content, in a direct and unproblematic fashion. In particular, it is often assumed that in order to secure multiple skills, high quality work and the innovative capacities of labour, employers will have to offer not only better pay, but also a better package of conditions, job security, fringe benefits and training and promotion opportunities. Developments at National Utility suggest that the link between job content and employment relations may be weaker than has sometimes been implied, and cast doubt on the theoretical basis for ‘post-Fordist’ confidence in the emergence of a new deal for labour as a result of flexible methods of work organisation.     

Choice and constraint in budget-making

A theory of the budgetary process within public resource allocation has to recognize that decision rules may vary over time and program. Our findings based on a new econometric approach indicate that various different decision mechanisms operate in different categories of public resource allocation. Variation over time is particularly difficult to accommodate within the incrementalist approach as incremental decision rules imply structural stability over time. We find the opposite to be true of the programs analysed.A model of the public expenditure process has to take choice into account to a larger extent. The attempt to make budget-making a function of constraints violates the occurrence of shiftpoints that is typical of the data. The existence of a base and the resort to mechanical rules for the derivation of the yearly increments implies a deterministic interpretation of budgetary behavior. Budgets are made in choice processes where the principal actors employ various decision rules meaning that budget-making is more voluntaristic than deterministic. The choice rules employed for the derivation of requests and appropriations are not mechanistic decision rules.     

COSTLY PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENT AND THE SHORT RUN DEMAND FOR MONEY

In many empirical studies the short-run demand for money includes a lagged dependent variable; this is usually attributed to some cost of adjusting money balances toward their desired level. This short-run money-demand equation is sometimes used as a structural equation in models in which market clearing is also assumed (in the sense that money supply equals short–run money demand). In this paper, a theoretical counterexample demonstrates that this use of a short-run money demand equation is not generally valid. This finding challenges the usual interpretation of the lagged dependent variable.     

Reducing bias in ecological studies: an evaluation of different methodologies

Summary.  Statistical methods of ecological analysis that attempt to reduce ecological bias are empirically evaluated to determine in which circumstances each method might be practicable. The method that is most successful at reducing ecological bias is stratified ecological regression. It allows individual level covariate information to be incorporated into a stratified ecological analysis, as well as the combination of disease and risk factor information from two separate data sources, e.g. outcomes from a cancer registry and risk factor information from the census sample of anonymized records data set. The aggregated individual level model compares favourably with this model but has convergence problems. In addition, it is shown that the large areas that are covered by local authority districts seem to reduce between-area variability and may therefore not be as informative as conducting a ward level analysis. This has policy implications because access to ward level data is restricted.     

Age at placement and adult adopted people's experience of being adopted

Older age at placement has long been recognized as a risk factor in successful adoption outcomes. The findings of the present study emerged as part of a larger study that looked at the adoption experiences and reunion outcomes of 472 adults who had either searched for or been sought by one or more of their birth relatives. As part of the investigation, adopted adults were asked to evaluate their adoption experience. Age at placement was used as a key variable in examining whether or not adopted people felt different to their adoptive family, felt they belonged in their adoptive family, and felt loved by their adoptive parents while growing up. Respondents were also asked to evaluate their overall experience of being adopted. Older age at placement significantly increased the risk of adopted people viewing major aspects of their adoption experience with either mixed or negative feelings.     

Scenario-Based Risk Assessment of Multi-Use Chemicals: Application to Solvents

The risk through chemical exposure is commonly characterized by ratios of exposure concentrations and effect levels (risk quotients). For chemicals with many different applications such as solvents, however, in addition to the risk quotients of different exposure situations it is useful to determine the corresponding numbers of exposed individuals, that is, not only the magnitude but also the extent of the risk. To this end, the Scenario-Based Risk Assessment (SceBRA) method has been developed that makes use of a large set of scenarios, each of which describes a typical situation regarding handling a solvent or solvent-containing product. The scenarios cover the life-cycle steps of production, distribution, and use of solvents. For each scenario, SceBRA provides the risk quotient, r, and the number of exposed individuals, N. This study investigated seven solvents that are used in large amounts in Switzerland. For each solvent, characteristic distributions of r and N values were calculated, making it possible to compare different solvents with respect to their risk profile. Graphical representations of the r, N data provide an informative way for analyzing and communicating the results of SceBRA.