Time series forecasting with neural networks: a comparative study using the air line data

This case-study fits a variety of neural network (NN) models to the well-known air line data and compares the resulting forecasts with those obtained from the Box–Jenkins and Holt–Winters methods. Many potential problems in fitting NN models were revealed such as the possibility that the fitting routine may not converge or may converge to a local minimum. Moreover it was found that an NN model which fits well may give poor out-of-sample forecasts. Thus we think it is unwise to apply NN models blindly in 'black box' mode as has sometimes been suggested. Rather, the wise analyst needs to use traditional modelling skills to select a good NN model, e.g. to select appropriate lagged variables as the 'inputs'. The Bayesian information criterion is preferred to Akaike's information criterion for comparing different models. Methods of examining the response surface implied by an NN model are examined and compared with the results of alternative nonparametric procedures using generalized additive models and projection pursuit regression. The latter imposes less structure on the model and is arguably easier to understand.     

Group psychotherapy with pathological gamblers

This paper reviews some of the group therapy techniques utilized in the authors' work with pathological gamblers. These conceptual tools ranged from rational-emotive psychotherapy to Zen philosophy which provided a background and foundation for working with pathological gamblers. Many therapeutic and antitherapeutic beliefs and behaviors of gamblers are discussed including narcissism, manipulative behavior, and rejection of Gamblers Anonymous. Each technique, behavior or belief discussed is explained in terms of how each affects the group process and how each is managed in group therapy.This paper represents a discourse on the group treatment of pathological gamblers primarily from the experiences of Julian Ingersoll Taber, Ph.D. who was the coordinator of the Gambling Treatment Program at the Cleveland Veterans Administration Medical Center for seven years. Dr. Taber is currently Chief of the Addictive Disorders Treatment Program at the Veterans Administration Medical Center in Reno, Nevada. Martin Paul Chaplin, Ph.D., who is specializing in the treatment of addiction, assisted in the theoretical and editorial aspects of this article. He worked under the aegis of Dr. Taber as an intern at the Gambling Treatment Program and currently has a position at Community Mental Health Services of Medina in Ohio.     

Family Therapy in a Psychiatric Hospital: A Case-Controlled Evaluation

Thirty-five patients (20 women) treated by a Family Therapy Unit based in a psychiatric hospital were compared with 35 matched control inpatients who were not treated by the Unit. Family Therapy averaged 4.5 one hour sessions and was cybernetic rather than behavioural or psychoeducational. The main outcome measure was days spent in the hospital in the year after family therapy. Women, but not men, showed a significant improvement after family therapy, reducing their days in hospital from a mean of 50 in the year before family therapy to 18 in the year after. The best response was shown by women with affective disorder. Control men and women showed a slight increase in days spent in hospital. Improvement after family therapy was associated with a markedly positive change in key relatives' attitudes to the patient, and a strongly positive attitude towards family therapy.     

Temperature schedules for simulated annealing

It is well known that the behaviour of the simulated annealing approach to optimization is crucially dependent on the choice of temperature schedule. In this paper, a dynamic programming approach is used to find the temperature schedule which is optimal for a simple minimization problem. The optimal schedule is compared with certain standard non-optimal choices. These generally perform well provided the first and last temperatures are suitably selected. Indeed, these temperatures can be chosen in such a way as to make the performance of the logarithmic schedule almost optimal. This optimal performance is fairly robust to the choice of the first temperature.The dynamic programming approach cannot be applied directly to problems of more realistic size, such as those arising in statistical image reconstruction. Nevertheless, some simulation experiments suggest that the general conclusions from the simple minimization problem do carry over to larger problems. Various families of schedules can be made to perform well with suitable choice of the first and last temperatures, and the logarithmic schedule combines good performance with reasonable robustness to the choice of the first temperature.     

Arousal and Gambling Mode Preference: A Review of the Literature

The purpose of this paper is to review the literature examining subjective and physiological arousal associated with an individual’s preferred modes of gambling. Arousal is hypothesised to play a central role in the onset and maintenance of problem gambling. Most studies have failed to differentiate relevant patterns of arousal elicited by stimuli associated with preferred versus non-preferred modes of gambling on the assumption that similar processes motivate all gamblers. At the conceptual level, sub-typing theories of problem gambling propose differences in the motivation to gamble, and the associated role arousal plays in maintaining behaviours. A review of the existing literature reveals preliminary findings that indicate that gamblers respond differentially to preferred compared to non-preferred gambling stimuli, and that gamblers may display greater reactivity in arousal to gambling cues compared to non-gamblers. Understanding differences in such patterns of arousal can be used to inform clinical interventions by effectively targeting the nature and role of arousal associated with preferred modes of gambling, and determining the extent to which non-preferred modes act as secondary reinforces triggering by gambling urges.     

What Changes MSW Students' View on the Mission of Social Work?

Little is known about how professional social work education affects students' view on the social work mission. Using a secondary analysis of larger longitudinal data collected from masters in social work (MSW) students in California, USA, this study sought to explore the relationship among the students' demographic characteristics, their primary reasons for pursuing an MSW degree, and their view on the mission of social work at the time of entering an MSW program, whether the students' view on the mission of social work changed in the course of an MSW education, and factors contributing to a change of MSW students' view on the social work mission—individual adaptation vs societal change—between the beginning and the end of the MSW program. The results showed that students' degree of social action involvement, type of field practicum, and ideological variables predicted students' view changes or adherence between entering the MSW program and graduating.