A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation

Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.     

中共十七大在执政党建设上的新亮点

中共十七大在执政党建设上突出.党内民主建设"、"尊重党员主体地位"、"改进候选人提名制度和选举方式"等新亮点,其意义深远.对这些亮点进行深人研究,是中国政治改革的重要课题.     

将ISO9001标准应用于实习工厂质量管理的探研

文章探讨了用ISO90 0 0族标准在高校实习工厂建立质量管理体系的可行性和基本策略 ,明确相关术语和定义 ,确立质量方针与质量目标 ,概括描述了质量手册、程序文件、作业性指导文件和质量记录的内容与框架。     

Estimation of dependence between paired correlated failure times in the presence of covariate measurement error

Summary. In many biomedical studies, covariates are subject to measurement error. Although it is well known that the regression coefficients estimators can be substantially biased if the measurement error is not accommodated, there has been little study of the effect of covariate measurement error on the estimation of the dependence between bivariate failure times. We show that the dependence parameter estimator in the Clayton–Oakes model can be considerably biased if the measurement error in the covariate is not accommodated. In contrast with the typical bias towards the null for marginal regression coefficients, the dependence parameter can be biased in either direction. We introduce a bias reduction technique for the bivariate survival function in copula models while assuming an additive measurement error model and replicated measurement for the covariates, and we study the large and small sample properties of the dependence parameter estimator proposed.     

效率与公平视角下的城市公共物品供给

改革开放二十多年来,我国城市化进程日益加快,城市公共物品的供给总量虽然达到了前所未有的规模,但就城市化进程中的实际需求而言,这一供给还明显不足,还存在着巨大的缺口.众所周知,在一定时期内可用于生产与配置的资源总是具有稀缺性.同时,由于我国正处于全面建设小康社会和改革开放的攻坚阶段,社会主义现代化建设事业的各个方面都亟须政府的财政支出,财政压力明显过大,银根严重吃紧.因此,在既能保证效率又能兼顾公平的前提下,探讨如何提高城市公共物品的有效供给以满足日益增长的城市公共需求,缓解城市公共物品供需矛盾,就显得尤为必要.     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

A graphical summary of disparities in health care and related summary measures

In order to assess the effectiveness of government programs designed to reduce disparities in the health care minority groups receive relative to the majority white population, a proper statistical measure should be used. This article proposes a measure of and its accompanying graph, which is readily interpretable and is not affected by the number of minority subgroups examined.     

A simulation study of a discrete-time multiserver retrial queue with finite population

In this paper, we deal with a discrete-time multiserver retrial queue with finite population. Firstly, we study the Markov chain at the epochs immediately after slot boundaries making emphasis on the computation of its steady-state distribution. Then, the main performance measures are investigated. Besides, we simulate the waiting time of a customer in the retrial group under three different queueing policies. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the analysis.