The effects of outliers on two nonlinearity tests

Two Lagrange multiplier tests for time series nonlinearities in the presence of outliers are examined by simulation experiments. The nonlinearities studied are autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and bilinearity; the outlier types are additive, innovative, temporary change and reallocation outliers. The results show that both the sizes and powers of the tests can be severely distorted by even a single outlier. The severity of the distortions depends on the outlier type and magnitude, but also on the underlying process generating 'the series.     

“Don’t Worry, It’s Just Poker!”-Experience, Self-Rumination and Self-Reflection as Determinants of Decision-Making in On-Line Poker

On-line poker is a game of chance and skill. The construct of poker playing skill has both a technical (game strategy-related) and an emotional (emotion regulation-related) aspect. A correlational on-line study (N = 354) was conducted to assess differences in technical skills and emotional characteristics related to poker playing style between experienced and inexperienced poker players. Results suggest that, with respect to emotional characteristics, experienced poker players engage in less self-rumination and more self-reflection, as compared to inexperienced players. Experienced poker players are also able to make better decisions, by mathematical standards, in a poker decision-making environment, as assessed by two fictitious on-line poker decision-making scenarios. Furthermore, this study provides supportive evidence that experienced poker players conceptualize the construct of “luck” differently from inexperienced players. A new poker playing experience scale (PES) for accurately measuring poker playing experience is presented in this paper.     

The weakest link and the commodification of subjectivity by the means of play

Abstract

This article considers the process of commodification (the extension of the realm of money, the spread of typically capitalist mechanisms like competition and consumption) as a cultural means of the reproduction of subjectivity. The particular aim is to highlight the psychic processes that are tempted by commodification. Thus, at the background of this essay, there is a psychoanalytical notion of the self that has been developed in an examination of subjectivity and play, a notion based especially on the thinking of D.W. Winnicott and Jessica Benjamin. These analysts see an ambivalent self‐destructiveness of the self reformulated in relation to the ‘potential space’ of play. In relation to this analysis, the influence of advanced capitalism on the self is discussed in some of its more competitive scenes of consumptions. The quiz show The Weakest Link, for example, is considered as a pale, commodified form of play. It is argued that the main seduction of the show is the dwindled and distorted potential space offered by its ultimate, destructive, and in the last analysis sado‐masochistic logic of exchange. In addition to The Weakest Link, a couple of relevant thematisations of commodified culture by contemporary Finnish literature are brought out. Moreover, the commodification of subjectivity by the means of play is loosely related to some general characterisations concerning the prevailing cultural situation (see Jameson 1999 and Rifkin, 2000).     

“Così è (se vi pare)”: Remarks on Subjective Well-Being from a Resource-Based Perspective

The present international interest on subjective well-being in research and policy-making is put under a critical eye from the perspective of the Scandinavian resource-based approach on well-being. In its stereotypical formulation, the Scandinavian approach is first and foremost interested in access to sufficient resources for all, and also in fair distribution of resources in the population. The approach leaves little space for subjective well-being, or leaves it as a private issue that is not a policy concern. From the Scandinavian perspective, it seems that many research ideas and policy proposals inspired by subjective well-being can be returned to resource-based approach. The paper discusses critically some recent proposals of strengthening the role of subjective well-being in research and policy. It also points out that the Scandinavian approach is not a monolith, but a number of side currents have always existed there, including ideas related to subjective well-being. Finally, the paper describes a rising interest in subjective well-being in the Nordic countries, too, although resource-based approach still dominates in welfare policies.     

30+ years of research and practice of outsourcing – Exploring the past and anticipating the future

Outsourcing is a phenomenon that as a practice originated in the 1950s, but it was not until the 1980s when the strategy became widely adopted in organizations. Since then, the strategy has evolved from a strictly cost focused approach towards more cooperative nature, in which cost is only one, often secondary, decision-making criterion. In the development of the strategy, three broad and somewhat overlapping, yet distinct phases can be identified: the era of the Big Bang, the era of the Bandwagon, and the era of Barrierless Organizations. This paper illustrates that the evolution of the practice has caused several contradictions among researchers, as well as led to the situation where the theoretical background of the phenomenon has recently become much richer. Through examining existing research, this paper intends to identify the development of outsourcing strategy from a practical as well as a theoretical perspective from its birth up to today. In addition, through providing insights from managers in the information technology industry, this paper aims at providing a glimpse from the future – that is – what may be the future directions and research issues in this complex phenomenon?     

‘This is just so unfair!’: A qualitative analysis of loss-induced emotions and tilting in on-line poker

Poker is a game of skill and chance, where players often experience significant monetary losses. Detrimental out-of-control poker decision-making due to negative emotions is known as tilting. A qualitative assessment of losing and tilting was conducted by analysing stories about significant monetary losses, written by Finnish on-line poker players (N = 60). Thematic and narrative analyses uncovered five themes and a narrative structure underlying the aetiology and phenomenology of tilting. Tilting, in the narratives, was often instigated by dissociative feelings (‘unreality’, disbelief) following a significant monetary loss. Thereafter, moral indignation was experienced, followed by chasing behaviour, in an attempt to restore a ‘fair balance’ between wins and losses. In the aftermath of tilting, self-focused feelings of disappointment, depression and/or anxiety, and sleeping problems were experienced. It was also observed that experienced players, as compared to inexperienced ones, exhibited in their narratives a more mature disposition towards encountering ‘bad luck’, and losing in general. The results are relevant in better understanding psychological processes related to losing in the multifaceted game of poker, thus contributing also to existing knowledge on detrimental gambling behaviour.     

Will the retiring baby boomers return to rural periphery?

Many belonging to large post-war age cohorts in the western countries moved from rural areas to larger industrializing cities. They retire soon and can consider moving back to the childhood places. This article studies these baby boomers and the issues about their return to peripheral rural areas. The case regards one rural municipality, Ristijärvi, in the remote Northeastern Finland. Despite ageing of local population, Ristijärvi aims to attract new elderly inhabitants with the Seniorpolis project. The entire baby boom generation of Ristijärvi municipality was studied. A questionnaire was answered by 313 people born in Ristijärvi in 1946–1955 and who live now elsewhere in Finland. Answers were analyzed with cross tables and factor analysis. Additional phone interview was held with 66 considering return migration. Furthermore, local policies to attract the elderly (return) migrants were analyzed. Potential elderly return migrants with spouse can reach up to tenth of current municipal population. Of the respondents 3% expressed their wish to return and 19% could live part-time in Ristijärvi. Remained contacts and summer cottage in Ristijärvi and wish to live in rural areas influence positively on returning. Those interested in returning seek clean nature, peaceful environment, security, detached houses with beautiful setting, lower housing costs and landscapes of home region. Elderly and their return migration should be conceptualized further. Return migration can be a trigger for local development as presented in the public–private initiative the Seniorpolis. However, local elderly policies should be analyzed carefully and promoted those projects having long-term positive impact.     

TEACHING SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT TO BUSINESS EXECUTIVES

By focusing on the management of entire value chains, supply chain management has gained increasing popularity in management research and in the teaching of global businesses. The right practices can take companies to great heights; lack of attention can draw companies close to peril. In teaching supply chain management to business executives, there are four major issues that need to be highlighted: flawless execution of operations, the change from supply to demand focus, outsourcing and supply base development, and partnership implementation. This article explains these four issues, and the material that is developed at IMD to teach each of them.     

Learning from Nuclear Accident Experience

Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants , it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants.     

Smaller net or just fewer to catch? Disentangling the causes for the varying sizes of minimum income schemes

The number of social assistance recipients varies significantly between welfare states. Social assistance is a last-resort residual benefit, so a high number of receipts may be related to policies for first-tier benefits, social assistance and their implementation, as well as need factors (unemployment rate and low income). Considering the strong political will to diminish the receipt of last-resort benefits, we demonstrated a way to decompose the reasons for eligibility in a cross-national analysis of two Nordic countries, namely Finland and Sweden. By using administrative register microdata, eligibility simulations and policy swaps, we found that the legislative features of social assistance, such as more extensive benefit norms and earning disregard, contribute to Finland's higher eligibility rate and likely explain some of the reasons for its higher number of recipients. Finland also exhibited lower non-take-up rates among those eligible, which implies better access to benefits than in Sweden.