Study on Time Expectancy of Care for Daily Living of Chinese Elderly

According to the data of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)and applyin g methods of Sullivan and multistate life table,this paper examines the time expectancy of care for daily living of Chinese elderly and its proportion in their elderly life.The results find that there exists a signifi cant gender gap of the expectancy,which the male at 65averagely are expected to have four to five care years while the female at 65averagely are expected to have seven to eight care years.The time expectancy for slight care of daily living is longer than that for sever care.Additionally,there is no significant difference between urban elderly and rural elderly.However,as age increases,the time expectancy for slight care goes down while that for sever care stabilities at a constant at different ages.The time expectancy for different types of care and its proportion in the rest of life are significantly various.The study points out that the establishment and improvement of care insurance system and the elderly care service are very necessary.     

儒家文化命运辨析——全球化时代几种儒家文化归宿理论的实证检验

"儒家文化的命运"关系到每个中国人的安身立命,关系到中华民族和中国的命运,关系到人类和世界格局及其发展趋势。本文以10个样本城市1254个样本的经验数据为根据,澄清了两个诉说纷纭的问题:一,儒家文化的生存状态,它是一成不变地保留下来了,还是已经彻底消亡,抑或是处于一种折中状态?二,近年出现的传统文化复兴现象的性质,它是一个暂时的现象,还是一个长期历史趋势的开端?实证分析表明:一、儒家文化的生存状态,既不是张之洞所言的"一成不变",也不是列文森所言的"彻底消亡"。在经历了一个半世纪的被妖魔化的历史之后,经过损益的儒家文化仍然活着。二、近年来出现的传统文化复兴现象,不是一场误会,而是历史的必然;不是稍纵即逝的泡沫,而是一个长期历史趋势的开端。儒家文化正迎来一个复兴的时代。儒家文化之所以在此时走上复兴之路,一是中国的终极文化具有超越时代的素质,这种素质孕育了其复兴的"可能性";二是中国的工具文化现代化获得了空前成功,这种成功创造了使可能转化为现实的"大势";三是当下的有利的现实的经济、政治、社会和国际条件。     

超越传统主客二分——对马克思实践概念的一种解读

马克思在《关于费尔巴哈的提纲》中把人的本质看作是在实践中生成而非先验既定的,于是建立在预设的主客二分基础上的异化逻辑就被釜底抽薪。马克思坚持社会存在决定社会意识这一唯物主义路线,其眼中的"社会存在"是现实的人的生活本身。从动态的实践到静态的实践,再到动态的实践,这是一个不断循环往复的过程。马克思真正进入唯物史观视域的关键一步,是在纷繁的历史现象中抓住了动态实践这一环节。马克思唯物史观的创立,蕴涵着对西方自巴门尼德以来的本体论及其理性主义传统的内在颠覆。我们从马克思创立唯物史观的内在理路中,解读出作为其思想背景的对西方传统主客二分的超越。     

韩国新村运动对我国农村人力资源开发的启示

20世纪70年代,韩国政府发起了以"脱贫、自立、实现现代化"为目标的建设新农村运动,新村运动在韩国农村广泛开展,对韩国经济的高速增长起到了极大的推动作用.韩国新村运动富涵农村人力资源开发的思想和举措.通过对韩国新村运动中人力资源开发政策和措施的分析,深入讨论了我国新农村建设中人力资源开发的路径和方向,并根据我国实际提出了科学合理的建议.     

Interwoven migration narratives: identity and social representations in the Lusophone world

This article provides an exploratory analysis of the life narratives of migrants in the Portuguese-speaking world. By interweaving the life experiences of eight participants in three thematic clusters – ‘shared past’, language and sense of community – we propose a critique of the deep-seated idea of the Lusophone space as a community constructed by the harmonious conviviality of different countries and people. Drawing on contributions from cultural studies, social psychology, anthropology and sociology, we first aim to give voice to the human subjects who embark on migrations and then to understand how the engendered process of identity construction is framed by their social world, simultaneously reframing it. Thus, we aim at shedding light on the ways in which aspects of the political discourses on Lusophony are used (and are instrumental) to the migrants’ identity narrative (re)construction.     

Complete moment convergence of widely orthant dependent random variables

It is known that the dependence structure of widely orthant dependent (WOD) random variables is weaker than those of negatively associated (NA) random variables, negatively superadditive dependent (NSD) random variables, negatively orthant dependent (NOD) random variables, and extended negatively dependent (END) random variables. In this article, the results of complete moment convergence and complete convergence are presented for WOD sequence under the same moment conditions as independent sequence in classical result (Chow 1988 Chow, Y. (1988). On the rate of moment convergence of sample sums and extremes. Bull. Inst. Math. Acad. Sin. 16(3):177–201. [Google Scholar]).     

经济增长、国际贸易与环境污染的关系研究

文章利用金砖国家1992-2011年的平衡面板数据,分别使用固定效应模型和两阶段GMM的方法检验了经济增长、国际贸易和环境污染间的相关关系.研究结果表明,金砖国家的经济增长与环境污染之间是呈现N型曲线关系,印度处于N型曲线的第一拐点前,中国和南非位于第一拐点和第二拐点之间,巴西和俄罗斯处于第二拐点之后.总体上金砖国家的贸易开放度的提升会加剧环境污染,由贸易活动引起的经济增长会使环境恶化;经济结构、产业结构、人口增长、能源消耗及技术进步等因素均会对污染物的排放产生影响.     

Pairwise comparisons of treatments with ordinal responses in a two-way setting

In clinical studies, pairwise comparisons are frequently performed to examine differences in efficacy between treatments. The statistical methods of pairwise comparisons are available when treatment responses are measured on an ordinal scale. The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test and the latent normal model are popular examples. However, these procedures cannot be used to compare treatments in parallel groups (a two-way design) when overall type I error must be controlled. In this paper, we explore statistical approaches to the pairwise testing of treatments that satisfy the requirements of a two-way layout. The results of our simulation indicate that the latent normal approach is superior to the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test. Clinical examples are used to illustrate our suggested testing methods.     

损失模拟模型的模拟与检验

为帮助精算师在不同的数据环境下选择最优的准备金评估方法,美国非寿险精算师协会组织开发了一个产生模拟索赔数据的开源软件系统——损失模拟模型,然而损失模拟模型是否能够按指定参数要求产生模拟数据需要进行检验.文章采用不同的参数估计方法和拟合优度检验方法对模拟索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势以及不同险种索赔次数之间的相关结构进行了统计检验,结果表明损失模拟模型对索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势能够产生一致的模拟,而对索赔次数数据之间相关结构的模拟存在不稳定性.     

中国城乡发展差距水平及其波动效应的实证

城乡发展差距是中国社会转型下最突出的矛盾之一.文章从经济、社会、文化、政治、生态五大维度构建中国城乡发展差距综合评价指标体系,以中国31个省份为研究区域,运用主成分分析法实证评价了中国城乡发展差距的现实水平及其波动效应.研究表明,中国城乡差距水平由东向西呈递增趋势,1985年至今城乡差距水平表现为一种波动性扩大的效应,城乡差距水平与城镇化发展水平表现为一种相互影响的逆向关系.