Bayesian estimation procedure in multiprocess non-linear dynamic generalized model

The multiprocess dynamic model provides a good framework for the modeling and analysis of the time series that contains outliers arid is subject to abrupt changes in pattern. In this paper we extend the multiprocess dynamic generalized linear model to allow for a known non-linear parameter evolution and predictor functions. This is done by approximating the non-linear function by a linear function based on a first order Taylor series expansions. This model has nice properties such as insensitivity to outliers and quick reaction to abrupt changes of pattern.     

电位差计灵敏度与工作电源电压关系的探讨

用直流电位差计对电动势(或电压)进行测量时,测量结果是经过两次比较一“校准工作电流”和“测量”才能得到的,因此装置的灵敏度是影响测量结果精度的重要因素,而电位差计工作电源与其灵敏度有复杂的关系.从校准和测量两方面研究电位差计灵敏度与其工作电源电压的关系,对正确使用电位差计,减少实验误差具有重要的指导作用.     

Relationship between Sex Ratio at Age 0 to 4 and Geographical Environment in China

The Relationship between sex ratio at age 0 to 4 and altitude in China is quantitatively investigated by using Geographical Information System(GIS)technology in this paper.The results show that the counties with high sex ratio at age 0 to 4 in 1990 and 2000 are mainly distributed on the east of the well-known Chinese population division,Anhui-Tengchong line,and there is high negative correlation between sex ratio at age 0 to 4 and altitude in Chinese counties. There are highest sex ratio at age 0 to 4 in the regions under 100 meters,but this ratio over 3200 meters falls into the normal range.And the sex ratio at age 0 to 4 continues to fall down when the altitude rises. So the geographical environment evidently affects the sex ratio at birth.There is higher sex ratio at birth in lower-altitude regions.The effect with altitude may be associated with the ambient tempeture.     

Noninformative priors for the normal variance ratio

In this paper, we consider noninformative priors for the ratio of variances in two normal populations. We develop first and second order matching priors. We find that the second order matching prior matches alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and is also a HPD matching prior. It turns out that among the reference priors, only one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a second order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the one-at-a-time reference prior performs better than other reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. This work is supported by Korea Research Foundation Grant (KRF-2004-002-C00041).     

论悬赏广告之法律性质

悬赏广告的法律性质一直存在许多争议,导致日常生活中产生大量纠纷.本文通过对关于悬赏广告法律性质的两种学说,即契约说和单方行为学说进行比较,然后提出笔者的思考,望对司法实践活动有一定参考意义.     

论中国哲学中的"渔翁"和"樵叟"

本文对出现在古代诗文中的“渔翁”和“樵叟”这一文化现象作了探索 ,认为出现这一文化现象的原因是在于文人想借“渔翁”和“樵叟”来寄托某种思想 ;而被借用的“渔翁”和“樵叟”也通过文人的笔端 ,留下了大量的充满哲理的话语和思想 ,并以这些思想来平息文人内心世界的不平和愤懑。这是与文人历来看重“渔翁”和“樵叟”的劳动场所和劳动对象———山水、鱼鸟有关。文人之所以能在“游山水 ,观鱼鸟”的过程中得出思想、精神 (理趣、心诀 ) ,是在于它是建筑在“天人相通 ,万物一体”、“天地之教”———向自然要学问的哲学基础上的     

新型镀镍光亮剂SN－1的研制

经过赫尔槽试验，对光亮剂各组分进行筛选，确定了丁炔二醇、环氧乙烷、环氧丙烷、环氧氯丙烷的最佳配比。以磺基甜莱碱的衍生物为整平剂，多元有机酸为干扰离子络合剂，研制了ＳＮ－１镀镍光亮剂。对加入该光亮剂的镀液及镀层的部分性能测试结果表明，该镀镍光亮剂的整平能力、分散能力、深镀能力均较好，出光速度快，有很好的应用前景。     

唐宋前之古酒述略

中国酒的原始发明人很难断定,但比较合理的推断是起源于上古时期粮食的自然发酵。黄帝、仪狄、杜康等都是自觉酿酒并有所创造的人。商朝发明了曲和蘖。周朝的酿酒技术已达相当水平。汉代的酿酒业进一步发展,这主要表现在酒曲制作技术的改进和酒类的增多。唐代酒业更加兴旺发达,并创造出以“春”命名的名酒系列。宋代酒业发展的新趋势是长江以南广大地区酒业生产的迅猛崛起,尤以江苏酒业最为发达,并形成了“川黔名酒带”。     

信息化时代中学心理教育的实践与思考

信息化时代给中学生心理发展带来深刻的影响 ,作为素质教育的重要组成部分的心理健康教育 ,应用信息技术拓宽学生心理健康发展的时空 ,从宏观和微观两个层面 ,准确地把握信息时代心理发展的特点和规律 ,探索信息化时代中学生心理教育的有效途径 ,为学生终身可持续发展奠定基础。     

当代世界哲学的问题域与多元化发展态势——第21届世界哲学大会等概览

从第21届世界哲学大会、“全球化时代的文化传统对话”国际学术研讨会、第13届国际中国哲学大会等三大重要国际学术会议中概括出以问题为中心的当代世界哲学走向,探讨了当代世界哲学的多元化发展态势,指出其突出表现是主流话语受到挑战,地区问题和民族哲学受到重视,哲学深入到全球化时代的问题之中,与生活世界之间的联系更加直接和密切,发展中国家的声音有所增强,中国学者的声音也得到越来越密切的关注与重视。