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71.
Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P-Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety Assessment 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Durga Rao Karanki Hari Shankar Kushwaha Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit 《Risk analysis》2009,29(5):662-675
A wide range of uncertainties will be introduced inevitably during the process of performing a safety assessment of engineering systems. The impact of all these uncertainties must be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. Uncertainties present in the components (input parameters of model or basic events) of model output are propagated to quantify its impact in the final results. There are several methods available in the literature, namely, method of moments, discrete probability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, and Dempster-Shafer theory. All the methods are different in terms of characterizing at the component level and also in propagating to the system level. All these methods have different desirable and undesirable features, making them more or less useful in different situations. In the probabilistic framework, which is most widely used, probability distribution is used to characterize uncertainty. However, in situations in which one cannot specify (1) parameter values for input distributions, (2) precise probability distributions (shape), and (3) dependencies between input parameters, these methods have limitations and are found to be not effective. In order to address some of these limitations, the article presents uncertainty analysis in the context of level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) based on a probability bounds (PB) approach. PB analysis combines probability theory and interval arithmetic to produce probability boxes (p-boxes), structures that allow the comprehensive propagation through calculation in a rigorous way. A practical case study is also carried out with the developed code based on the PB approach and compared with the two-phase Monte Carlo simulation results. 相似文献
72.
2011年的文艺学研究覆盖了文学理论与文化研究两大界域,在马克思主义文艺理论、文学的全球化、视觉文化、西方文论、中国古代文论以及文学研究的观念与方法等诸多论域,均有较为出色的研究成果,使文艺学研究呈现出多层级的深入与科际之间的互动。文化研究丰富、扩大了传统的文学研究,突破、超越了文艺学既定的学术体制,但是,作为一种"后学科",文化研究是当代"学科大联合"的一种积极努力,文化只是文学研究不可或缺的一个维度,文化研究不可能完全取代文学研究。如何在理论与实践上将文学研究与文化研究融为一体,对研究者而言仍是任重道远。 相似文献
73.
It has been long believed that prolonged political instability harms economic growth and development. This paper contributes to this growing empirical literature by studying the case in Fiji, which has faced a long period of political instability caused by a series of coups, military administrations and frequent changes in government since 1987. The impact of political instability on growth is hard to identify empirically because the counterfactual is unobserved and it is difficult to find valid comparisons. To solve this problem, we use the recently developed Synthetic Control Method to construct a counterfactual (or synthetic Fiji) that predicts the growth of a politically stable Fiji. The difference in per capita growth trajectories of the synthetic and the actual Fiji can thus be attributed as the impacts of political instability. Our findings show that the political instability caused by a series of coups since 1987 has indeed led Fiji onto a lower growth path, and that the accumulated effect is getting larger. 相似文献
74.
David D. Tung S. Rao Jammalamadaka 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2012,142(3):673-684
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic theory for U-statistics based on sample spacings, i.e. the gaps between successive observations. The usual asymptotic theory for U-statistics does not apply here because spacings are dependent variables. However, under the null hypothesis, the uniform spacings can be expressed as conditionally independent Exponential random variables. We exploit this idea to derive the relevant asymptotic theory both under the null hypothesis and under a sequence of close alternatives.The generalized Gini mean difference of the sample spacings is a prime example of a U-statistic of this type. We show that such a Gini spacings test is analogous to Rao's spacings test. We find the asymptotically locally most powerful test in this class, and it has the same efficacy as the Greenwood statistic. 相似文献
75.
On long-term mortality trends in the United States, 1850–1968 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
S. L. N. Rao 《Demography》1973,10(3):405-419
This study of United States life tables analyzes the process of mortality transition during 1850–1968. Special features of the study are (1) a phase-specific, rather than an age-specific, analysis of mortality and (2) use of measures based on person-years of life (nL x ) in phase-intervals, rather than survival rates (nPx) or expectation of life at given ages (e x o). The analysis suggests that the historical transition of mortality in the United States can be described as a three-stage process: an initial stage of slow improvement in life expectancy during 1850–1900, a second stage of rapid improvement during 1900–1950, and a third stage of slower improvement since 1950. Quantitative measures of rapidity of mortality decline in the several phases indicate that they are not identical for all phases and in all stages. The analysis also suggests that there have been rapid changes in the components of overall mortality differentials by sex and race in the United States. The paper draws attention to the need for studies of factors in variations of mortality at ages beyond 50 in the United States population subgroups. 相似文献
76.
Modern point‐of‐use technology at hospitals has enabled new replenishment policies for medical supplies. One of these new policies, which we call the hybrid policy, is currently in use at a large U.S. Midwest hospital. The hybrid policy combines a low‐cost periodic replenishment epoch with a high‐cost continuous replenishment option to avoid costly stockouts. We study this new hybrid policy under deterministic and stochastic demand. We develop a parameter search engine using simulation to optimize the long‐run average cost per unit time and, via a computational study, we provide insights on the benefits (reduction in cost, inventory, and number of replenishments) that hospitals may obtain by using the hybrid policy instead of the commonly used periodic policies. We also use the optimal hybrid policy parameters from the deterministic analysis to propose approximate expressions for the stochastic hybrid policy parameters that can be easily used by hospital management. 相似文献
77.
In hospitals, the management of operating rooms faces a trade‐off between the need to be responsive to emergency surgeries and to conduct scheduled elective surgeries efficiently. Operating rooms can be configured as flexible and handle both electives and emergencies, or as dedicated to focus on either electives or emergencies. With flexible rooms, the prioritization of emergencies over scheduled electives can lead to schedule disruptions. Focused rooms can lead to imbalances between capacity and surgery workload. Whereas hospital administrators typically handle this trade‐off by employing either flexible rooms (complete flexibility) or dedicated rooms (complete focus), we investigate whether a combination of flexible and dedicated rooms (partial flexibility) could be a preferable alternative. The ensuing question is what is the right combination of flexible and dedicated rooms? A versatile simulation model is developed to evaluate different resource allocation policies under various environmental parameters and performance metrics, including patient wait time, staff overtime, and operating room utilization. The main result is that partial flexibility configurations outperform both complete flexibility and complete focus policies by providing solutions with improved values of expected wait time for both emergency and elective patients. 相似文献
78.
This research considers a supply chain under the following conditions: (i) two heterogeneous suppliers are in competition, (ii) supply capacity is random and pricing is endogenous, (iii) consumer demand, with and without an intermediate retailer, is price dependent. Specifically, we examine how uncertainty in supply capacity affects optimal ordering and pricing decisions, supplier and retailer profits, and the incentives to reduce such uncertainty. When two suppliers sell through a monopolistic retailer, supply uncertainty not only affects the retailer's diversification strategy for replenishment, but also changes the suppliers’ wholesale price competition and the incentive for reducing capacity uncertainty. In this dual‐sourcing model, we show that the benefit of reducing capacity uncertainty depends on the cost heterogeneity between the suppliers. In addition, we show that a supplier does not necessarily benefit from capacity variability reduction. We contrast this incentive misalignment with findings from the single‐supplier case and a supplier‐duopoly case where both suppliers sell directly to market without the monopolistic retailer. In the latter single‐supplier and duopoly cases, we prove that the unreliable supplier always benefits from reducing capacity variability. These results highlight the role of the retailer's diversification strategy in distorting a supplier's incentive for reducing capacity uncertainty under supplier price competition. 相似文献
79.
We consider a supply chain structure with shipments from an external warehouse directly to retailers and compare two enhancement options: costly transshipment among retailers after demand has been realized vs. cost‐free allocation to the retailers from the development of a centralized depot. Stochastic programming models are developed for both the transshipment and allocation structures. We study the impact of cost parameters and demand coefficient of variation on both system structures. Our results show an increasing convex relationship between average costs and demand coefficient of variation, and furthermore that this increase is more pronounced for the allocation structure. We employ simulation and nonlinear search techniques to computationally compare the cost performance of allocation and transshipment structures under a wide range of system parameters such as demand uncertainty and correlation; lead times from the external warehouse to retailers, from warehouse to central depot, and from depot to retailers; and transshipment, holding, and penalty costs. The transshipment approach is found to outperform allocation for a broad range of parameter inputs including many situations for which transshipment is not an economically sound decision for a single period. The insights provided enable the manager to choose whether to invest in reducing lead times or demand uncertainty and assist in the selection of investments across identical and nonidentical retailers. 相似文献
80.
Small area estimation is studied under a nested error linear regression model with area level covariate subject to measurement error. Ghosh and Sinha (2007) obtained a pseudo-Bayes (PB) predictor of a small area mean and a corresponding pseudo-empirical Bayes (PEB) predictor, using the sample means of the observed covariate values to estimate the true covariate values. In this paper, we first derive an efficient PB predictor by using all the available data to estimate true covariate values. We then obtain a corresponding PEB predictor and show that it is asymptotically “optimal”. In addition, we employ a jackknife method to estimate the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of the PEB predictor. Finally, we report the results of a simulation study on the performance of our PEB predictor and associated jackknife MSPE estimator. Our results show that the proposed PEB predictor can lead to significant gain in efficiency over the previously proposed PEB predictor. Area level models are also studied. 相似文献