Environmental forecasting and non-profit professional organizations

To undertake any kind of realistic planning activity, it is useful to have a long-term environmental forecast which provides the planner with an overall perspective. The planner will be functioning over the next decade in a very dynamic, complex and challenging political, economic, technological and social environment, and will require very effective planning efforts to cope with such changing environment. This article presents an approach and methodology that a planner could use in his/her organization's planning process. To the best of our knowledge, very few organizations—profit and non-profit oriented—undertake a formal long-term environmental forecast. This article might encourage several planners to examine this area of long range planning in their respective organizations. The long- term environmental forecasting approach presented in this article could be applied by planners in all types of organizations—small or large, profit oriented or non-profit oriented, old or new. This article, however, is based on a study which the authors did for a non-profit organization.     

QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN MARKETING: AN ASSESSMENT OF TEACHING AND USAGE PATTERNS

This paper presents the perspectives of quantitative techniques in academics and practice. Based on the findings of an empirical study, the academicians and practitioners emphasize different techniques and prefer different journals for keeping abreast. This reveals the areas for curriculum improvement to orient the program toward the practitioners.     

Identifiability of two‐component skew normal mixtures with one known component

We give sufficient identifiability conditions for estimating mixing proportions in two‐component mixtures of skew normal distributions with one known component. We consider the univariate case and two multivariate extensions: a multivariate skew normal distribution (MSN) and the canonical fundamental skew normal distribution (CFUSN). The characteristic function of the CFUSN distribution is additionally derived.     

Competing risk analysis in a large cardiovascular clinical trial: An APEX substudy

Competing risk methods are time‐to‐event analyses that account for fatal and/or nonfatal events that may potentially alter or prevent a subject from experiencing the primary endpoint. Competing risk methods may provide a more accurate and less biased estimate of the incidence of an outcome but are rarely applied in cardiology trials. APEX investigated the efficacy of extended‐duration betrixaban versus standard‐duration enoxaparin to prevent a composite of symptomatic deep‐vein thrombosis (proximal or distal), nonfatal pulmonary embolism, or venous thromboembolism (VTE)–related death in acute medically ill patients (n = 7513). The aim of the current analysis was to determine the efficacy of betrixaban vs standard‐duration enoxaparin accounting for non‐VTE–related deaths using the Fine and Gray method for competing risks. The proportion of non‐VTE–related death was similar in both the betrixaban (133, 3.6%) and enoxaparin (136, 3.7%) arms, P = .85. Both the traditional Kaplan‐Meier method and the Fine and Gray method accounting for non‐VTE–related death as a competing risk showed equal reduction of VTE events when comparing betrixaban to enoxaparin (HR/SHR = 0.65, 95% 0.42‐0.99, P = 0.046). Due to the similar proportion of non‐VTE–related deaths in both treatment arms and the use of a univariate model, the Fine and Gray method provided identical results to the traditional Cox model. Using the Fine and Gray method in addition to the traditional Cox proportional hazards method can indicate whether the presence of a competing risk, which is dependent of the outcome, altered the risk estimate.     

Distributed Computer System Capacity Planning and Capacity Loading

The availability of micro-, mini-, and super computers has complicated the laws governing the economies of scale in computers and has increased the tendency to decentralize and distribute computing power. The optimal design of such a system requires integration of computers of varying power and a strategy for capacity loading. This paper considers the problem of capacity planning and capacity loading of a distributed computer system as a hierarchy of decisions. A linear programming model is developed for the initial capacity planning problem. A loading model that accounts for variations in arrival and processing rates of the jobs in a dynamic environment is developed to support the operations.     

Concepts,Theory, and Techniques DISTRIBUTED COMPUTER SYSTEM DESIGN: A MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING METHODOLOGY*

The design of distributed computer systems (DCSs) requires compromise among several conflicting objectives. For instance, high system availability conflicts with low cost which in turn conflicts with quick response time. This paper presents an approach, based on multi-criteria decision-making techniques, to arrive at a good design in this multiobjective environment. An interactive procedure is developed to support the decision making of system designers. Starting from an initial solution, the procedure presents a sequence of non-dominated vectors to designers, allowing them to explore systematically alternative possibilities on the path to a final design. The model user has control over trade-offs among different design objectives. This paper focuses on the details of the mathematical model used to provide decision support. Accordingly, a formulation of DCS design as a multicriteria decision problem is developed. The exchange search heuristic used to generate nondominated solutions also is presented. We argue that multicriteria models provide a more realistic formulation of the DCS design problem than the single-criterion models used widely in the literature. While obtaining a clear definition of design objectives (single or multiple) is an important activity, by explicitly acknowledging the trade-offs among multiple objectives in the design process, our methodology is more likely to produce a better overall design than methods addressing a single criterion in isolation.     

When tourists are your “friends”: Exploring the brand personality of Mexico and Brazil on Facebook

Adopting Aaker's (1997) framework, this study explored how popular tourist destinations, Mexico and Brazil, communicate their brand personality through Facebook, and which personality traits their Facebook “friends” associate with them. Results of computer-aided content analysis indicated that both countries’ tourism promotion messages emphasize distinct brand personality traits. However, Mexico's public relations efforts were more successful than Brazil's in transferring projected brand personality to its Facebook “friends”.     

Testing for Generalized Lorenz Dominance

The Generalized Lorenz dominance can be used to take account of differences in mean income as well as income inequality in case of two income distributions possessing unequal means. Asymptotically distribution-free and consistent tests have been proposed for comparing two generalized Lorenz curves in the whole interval [p ₁, p ₂] where 0 < p ₁ < p ₂ < 1. Size and power of the test has been derived.     

Application of a Regional Hurricane Wind Risk Forecasting Model for Wood-Frame Houses

Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.     

The Seasonal Adjustment Procedures for the Consumer Price Indexes: Some Empirical Results

Beginning with January of 1987, the consumer price indexes (CPI's) have been seasonally adjusted by the X-11 autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure. This modification of the X-11 procedure was introduced following an empirical investigation into three aspects of seasonal adjustment methodology as applied to several CPI series—the choice of ARIMA models to fit and forecast those series, the improvements made by the ARIMA modification in terms of revision and smoothness of the seasonally adjusted series, and the effect on the quality of seasonal adjustment and the identifiability of seasonality due to the ARIMA modification. This article reports the results of that investigation, in addition, a brief account is given of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics procedures relating to the projected seasonal factors, seasonally adjusted aggregate series, and the revisions of the seasonally adjusted series.