关于价格指数缩减法计算工业发展速度的研究

 建国以来,我国一直沿用不变价格工业法计算工业发展速度,这种方法在国家定价占绝对主导地位的计划经济时代发挥了一定的作用。随着我国市场经济体制的建立,不变价法的弊病越来越大,亟待采用适合市场经济特点的新方法。目前,国家统计局正在对两种新方法——生产指数法和价格指数缩减法进行对比计算,从试算结果看,价格指数缩减法优势较为明显。     

我国房地产价格发展趋势研究

 本文从房地产价格的相关理论出发,主要从房地产需求、房地产供给、房地产金融和房地产宏观调控等角度对影响房价的因素进行了分析,并从实证角度分析了各因素对房价的影响。本研究运用近10年房地产价格季度数据和时间序列模型对房地产价格发展趋势进行预测,最后提出房地产价格发展预警和稳定房价的建议。     

A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty,duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.     

Adolescent emotion regulation trajectories: The influence of parent and friend emotion socialization

With mounting evidence demonstrating the link between child emotion regulation (ER) and emotion socialization, we conducted a longitudinal study to understand (a) emotion-specific trajectories of adolescent ER and (b) how specific parent and friend emotion socialization strategies impact ER over 4 years. Participants were 209 adolescents (52.5% girls; M_age = 12.66 years; 75.7% White) and their parents. Latent growth curve models identified unique trajectories for anger and sadness/worry regulation. Anger regulation increased across time, whereas sadness/worry regulation remained highly stable longitudinally, lacking variance for growth modeling. Friend emotion socialization emerged as a more salient predictor of anger regulation than parent emotion socialization. Friend reward, override, and punish responses predicted initial levels. Friend punish and parent magnify responses predicted the slope.     

Associations between ongoing COVID-19 lockdown and the financial and mental health experiences of Australian families

In 2020, Australia's successful COVID-19 public health restrictions comprised a national “initial lockdown” (March–May) and “ongoing lockdown” (July–November) for metropolitan Victorian residents only. We evaluated associations between ongoing lockdown and family finances and mental health. In the June and September 2020 Royal Children's Hospital National Child Health Polls, caregivers of children in Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) reported the following: job/income loss; material deprivation (inability to pay for essential items); income poverty; mental health (Kessler-6); perceived impact on caregiver/child mental health; and caregiver/child coping. Data from caregivers (N = 1207/902) in June/September were analysed using difference-in-difference modelling (NSW provided the comparator). During Victoria's ongoing lockdown, job/income loss increased by 11% (95%CI: 3%–18%); Kessler-6 poor mental health by 6% (95%CI: −0.3%–12%) and perceived negative mental health impacts by 14% for caregivers (95%CI: 6%–23%) and 12% for children (95%CI: 4%–20%). Female (vs. male) caregivers, metropolitan (vs. regional/rural) families, and families with elementary school-aged children (vs. pre-/high-school) were the most affected. The ongoing lockdown was associated with negative experiences of mental health, employment and income, but not deprivation or poverty, likely because of government income supplements introduced early in the pandemic. Future lockdowns require planned responses to outbreaks and evidence-informed financial and mental health supports.     

Identifying factors for poorer educational outcomes that may be exacerbated by COVID-19: A systematic review focussing on at-risk school children and adolescents

School closures across Australia in response to COVID-19 have persisted since 2020, with rising mental health problems in children and adolescents, alongside rising negative family health and socioeconomic outcomes. Further, some children and young people who were already experiencing disadvantage pre-pandemic may be at heightened risk of poorer educational outcomes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to identify the factors for poorer educational outcomes that may be exacerbated by COVID-19 amongst disadvantaged school students. Key development stages of disadvantage were identified: young children who started school behind, older students already at risk of disengagement from school and children and young people who have had contact with the child protection system. Five databases were systematically searched, across two search periods. A total of 69 Australian, peer-reviewed articles, published in 2005–2021, examining risk factors for poor educational outcomes for children attending school met the inclusion criteria and were included in final analyses. Our findings provide evidence of key risk factors that make these populations susceptible to worsening outcomes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, and of the critical importance of ongoing research to guide policy and practice support for these at-risk groups.     

Family participation in child protection practice: an observational study of family group meetings

Over the past two decades, child protection authorities internationally have begun to implement models of family participation in child protection decision‐making. Debate exists about the extent to which these models promote family involvement in decision‐making. While a significant body of research on family and professional experience and perceptions of models of family participation in decision‐making has emerged, there has been little observational research of these approaches. In this paper, we report on observational data from 11 family group meetings (FGMs) in a child protection context in Queensland, Australia. Under Queensland child protection law, these meetings are referred to as an inclusive process for child protection decision‐making and planning. We draw on observational data to analyse how family inclusion in child protection decision‐making is facilitated, or limited, by the FGM process. We consider tensions in the realization of a participatory ethos in child protection services systems and discuss what practitioners can practically do to enhance family participation in child protection decision‐making.     

Introduction to the Issue

Gordon Willard Allport was born more than 100 years ago on November 11, 1897. In honor of the centennial of his birth, this issue of the Journal presents a collection of articles on the social psychology of prejudice and intergroup relations—the field that Allport pioneered with his classic 1954 book, The Nature of Prejudice. The articles provide insights into both perpetrators and targets of prejudice and the conflict that often takes place between members of different societal groups. In the tradition of Gordon Allport, these articles demonstrate that it is possible for social science to make theoretical, empirical, and practical contributions to the understanding and resolution of social problems. This introductory article high-lights Allport's contributions to the social psychology of prejudice and intergroup relations. Overviews of the articles in this issue are also provided, and the recurring theoretical and methodological approaches are considered.     

The Personal/Group Discrimination Discrepancy

This article extends Allport's (1954) analysis of targets of discrimination by examining why minority group members perceive more discrimination directed at their group than at themselves. Two studies were conducted to explain this personal/group discrimination discrepancy by focusing on the role of stereotypes, which allow people to process information faster. Women (Study 1) and African Americans (Study 2) made ratings of personaland group discrimination while a computer recorded the time it took them to respond. Both took less time to make ratings of group discrimination than personal discrimination. Moreover, the less time it took for them to respond to questions about group discrimination, the larger the discrepancy was between their ratings of personal and group discrimination. These results suggest that the personal/group discrimination discrepancy emerges when minority groupmembers are using a stereotype in which discrimination encountered by their group is believed to be high.