European Business Cycles: New Indices and Their Synchronicity

This article presents a new business cycle index that allows for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country, cross-country comparisons of business cycle correlation, and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle. The data augmentation implied by Gibbs sampling generates posterior distributions for a latent coincident business cycle index. Subsample correlations between an aggregated "Europe" index and the national business cycle indices from France, Germany, and Italy are consistent with the claim that the European economies are becoming more harmonized.     

On the Consistency of Court Dispositions in the Juvenile Criminal Justice System: A Research Note

An analysis of 13,919 cases dealt with by the Children's Court during a two year period showed significant differences between the regional patterns of dispositions made by the courts in respect of comparable male juvenile offenders (Crimes Act). Urban courts presided over by special children's magistrates were more lenient than countrty courts with regular stipendiary magistrates, except for committing greater numbers of offenders for trial in a higher court. Country courts in general tended to be more lenient in respect of selected offences than country courts located in areas of Aboriginal concentration. However, differences were also found between the dispositions of individual urban courts which could not be accounted for by the social and circumstantial factors associated with regional differences.     

A parsimonious multivariate poisson model for market basket analysis

Intensified research on multivariate Poisson models offers new opportunities for the analysis of purchase quantities in market basket data. The investigation of positive or negative correlations in quantity decisions among product categories facilitates a deeper understanding of consumer purchase behavior. The applied multivariate log-normal Poisson model introduces interdependencies between categories with multivariate normal-distributed latent effects by means of a covariance matrix. As the size of this covariance matrix depends on the number of categories in the model, its ation may become tedious. Furthermore, we assume that quantity decisions do not interact for all pairs of categories. That is why we propose to use covariance selection to derive a parsimonious representation of the correlation structure. For two market basket data sets, we show that the vast majority of off-diagonal elements in the covariance matrix are irrelevant. For a data set with product categories, the model with a partly restricted covariance matrix achieves a better fit to the holdout data than the model with full covariance matrix. For a data set with subcategories of the broader category beverage, the proposed model with restricted covariance outperforms the model with full covariance matrix even on the calibration data. We conclude that interactions of quantity decisions are overall the exception, even for complements-in-use.     

The Relationship of Four Types of ‘Broken Home’ to Some Neglected Parameters of Juvenile Delinquency

Using a sample of 1,130 male juvenile offenders, the relationship of four types of ‘broken home’ to the age at onset of delinquency, recidivism, rate of offences, and types of offence was investigated. The number of recidivists was found to be significantly greater among offenders who were living only with fathers than among offenders living with both parents. A trend in this direction was also found among offenders living only with mothers. Offenders living apart from parents were found to be older at the time of their first offence than were offenders living with both parents. The findings were discussed critically, and it was concluded that they support the hypothesis that the ‘broken home’ is not per se a causal factor in juvenile delinquency.     

„Wir mussten Coaching erstmal salonfähig machen“

In this study coaching culture is defined as a part of organizational culture that reflects the patterns of assumptions and actions concerning coaching, as well as the perception and evaluation of results and modes of effects. A qualitative study with 15 experts from six large companies revealed that positive and negative cultures concerning coaching can be differentiated. The results show a trend towards a positive culture, which needs active support. It is assumed that the coaching culture is a relevant impact factor for the efficacy of coaching.     

Organization and Supply of Long‐term Care Services for the Elderly: A Bird's‐eye View of Old and New EU Member States

This article provides an overview of the organization of formal long‐term care (LTC) systems for the elderly in ten old and 11 new EU member states (MS). Generally, we find that the main responsibility for regulating LTC services is centralized in half of these countries, whereas in the remaining countries, this responsibility is typically shared between authorities at the central level and those at the regional or local levels in both institutional and home‐based care. Responsibilities for planning LTC capacities are jointly met by central and non‐central authorities in most countries. Access to publicly financed services is rarely means tested, and most countries have implemented legal entitlements conditional on needs. In virtually all countries, access to institutional care is subject to cost sharing, which also applies to home‐based care in most countries. The relative importance of institutional LTC relative to home‐based LTC services differs significantly across Europe. Although old MS appear to be experiencing some degree of convergence, institutional capacity levels still span a wide range. Considerable diversity may also be observed in the national public–private mix in the provision of LTC services. Lastly, free choice between public and private providers exists in the vast majority of these countries. This overview provides vital insights into the differences and similarities in the organization of LTC systems across Europe, especially between old and new MS, while also contributing valuable insight into previously neglected topics, thus broadening the knowledge base of international experience for mutual learning.     

Perceived Risk, Stigma, and Potential Economic Impacts of a High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada

This study investigates the potential impacts of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, upon tourism, retirement and job-related migration, and business development in Las Vegas and the state. Adverse impacts may be expected to result from perceptions of risk, stigmatization, and socially amplified reactions to "unfortunate events" associated with the repository (major and minor accidents, discoveries of radiation releases, evidence of mismanagement, attempts to sabotage or disrupt the facility, etc.). The conceptual underpinnings of risk perception, stigmatization, and social amplification are discussed and empirical data are presented to demonstrate how nuclear images associated with Las Vegas and the State of Nevada might trigger adverse economic effects. The possibility that intense negative imagery associated with the repository may cause significant harm to Nevada's economy can no longer be ignored by serious attempts to assess the risks and impacts of this unique facility. The behavioral processes described here appear relevant as well to the social impact assessment of any proposed facility that produces, uses, transports, or disposes of hazardous materials.     

Intergeneration occupational mobility and income

The relationship between intergeneration occupational mobility and income is examined in three independent studies: (1) a sample of older men in Detroit, (2) a sample of working age men residing in one of six medium to large sized cities, and (3) a nationally representative sample of working age men. In all three studies, mobile men have lower incomes than do stable men. However, neither the direction nor the degree of mobility appears to affect income in any of the studies examined. The basic relationship between mobility per se and income does not disappear when controls are introduced for work experience, schooling, occupational origins, and occupational destinations. The observed impact of intergeneration occupational mobility on income is consistent with the view that fathers can use their personal and organizational connections to help their sons secure well-paying positions so long as the sons remain in occupations that are similar in status to those of their fathers.     

Undetermined manner of death. A comparison with unintentional injury, suicide, and homicide death

Injury deaths can be grouped into four general categories: accident, homicide, suicide, and undetermined. The present study investigates the use of the "undetermined" category. External cause of death, as well as demographic and other variables, were abstracted from death certificates of the 386,936 Californians who died of an injury between 1969 and 1991. Differences among the four manner-of-death groups were examined, and characteristics of the decedent and the injury event were used to predict a classification of undetermined. Coroners classified 1.9% of the deaths as undetermined in manner. Deaths of women, Blacks, Asians, and Native Americans; the very young and the middle aged; or those involving poisoning or submersion were most likely to be classified as undetermined. Acknowledging that individual coroner judgment may not be free of bias, these findings can help provide a better estimate of the frequency and the epidemiologic features of injury deaths that are assigned to the category of undetermined.