Bayesian Variable Selection Under Collinearity

In this article, we highlight some interesting facts about Bayesian variable selection methods for linear regression models in settings where the design matrix exhibits strong collinearity. We first demonstrate via real data analysis and simulation studies that summaries of the posterior distribution based on marginal and joint distributions may give conflicting results for assessing the importance of strongly correlated covariates. The natural question is which one should be used in practice. The simulation studies suggest that posterior inclusion probabilities and Bayes factors that evaluate the importance of correlated covariates jointly are more appropriate, and some priors may be more adversely affected in such a setting. To obtain a better understanding behind the phenomenon, we study some toy examples with Zellner’s g-prior. The results show that strong collinearity may lead to a multimodal posterior distribution over models, in which joint summaries are more appropriate than marginal summaries. Thus, we recommend a routine examination of the correlation matrix and calculation of the joint inclusion probabilities for correlated covariates, in addition to marginal inclusion probabilities, for assessing the importance of covariates in Bayesian variable selection.     

Negative and Positive Partial Mobility: A Study of the Relative Changes in Human Development

In this paper, we have considered the issues concerning dynamic changes in HDI and its various components from a relative standpoint. The analysis of HDI mobility should entail directional movement introduced by Fields (in Distribution and development: a new look at the developing world. MIT Press, Cambridge, 2001). However, Fields’ analysis was in the space of absolute values. Here, we will try to extend this exercise to the positional mobility index by considering the question of improvement and deterioration in relative positions. This requires the concept of partial mobility where mobility is judged from the viewpoint of a particular group. We then try to introduce directional changes in partial mobility through axiomatic framework. Finally, we provide an illustrative example from the Indian data.     

Hierarchical bayes quality measurement plan

Quality Measurement Plan (QMP) as developed by Hoadley (1981) is a statistical method for analyzing discrete quality audit data which consist of the expected number of defects given the standard quality. The QMP is based on an empirical Bayes (EB) model of the audit sampling process. Despite its wide publicity, Hoadley's method has often been described as heuristic. In this paper we offer an hierarchical Bayes (HB) alternative to Hoadley's EB model, and overcome much of the criticism against this model. Gibbs sampling is used to implement the HB model proposed in this paper. Also, the convergence of the Gibbs sampler is monitored via the algorithm of Gelman and Rubin (1992).     

Identifiability of distributions under competing risks and complementary risks model

Let X₁,X₂,…,X_p be p random variables with cdf's F₁(x),F₂(x),…,F_p(x)respectively. Let U = min(X₁,X₂,…,X_p) and V = max(X₁,X₂,…,X_p).In this paper we study the problem of uniquely determining and estimating the marginal distributions F₁,F₂,…,F_p given the distribution of U or of V.

First the problem of competing and complementary risks are introduced with examples and the corresponding identification problems are considered when the X₁'s are independently distributed and U(V) is identified, as well as the case when U(V) is not identified. The case when the X₁'s are dependent is considered next. Finally the problem of estimation is considered.     

Sequential procedures in identification

In this paper we study the problem of identifying a popula-tion with one of the two populations, with an aim to control both types of errors. We assume that the populations are normal with unknown means, but with unit variance. We have cited examples from anthropological studies where our formulation of the problem fits in quite nicely. We observe that SPRT’s based on the maximal invariant may not terminate with probability one. Simulation studies reported here show a substantial saving in the average number of samples compared to the best invariant fixed sample test.     

On the asymptotic distribution of an estimate of the change point in a failure rate

The failure rate r(t) is assumed to have the shape of the"first"part of the"bathtub"model, i.e.r(t) is non-increasing for t<r and is constant for t> r. Asymptotic distribution of one of the estimates proposed earlier has been investigated in this paper. This leads to a test for the hypothesis HQ r<r ₀ vs H :r>r (where TQ > 0). Asymptotic expression for the power of this test under Pitman alternatives is derived. Some simulations are reported.     

A Semiparametric Bayesian Model for Circular-Linear Regression

Circular data are observations that are represented as points on a unit circle. Times of day and directions of wind are two such examples. In this work, we present a Bayesian approach to regress a circular variable on a linear predictor. The regression coefficients are assumed to have a nonparametric distribution with a Dirichlet process prior. The semiparametric Bayesian approach gives added flexibility to the model and is useful especially when the likelihood surface is ill behaved. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to fit the proposed model and to generate predictions. The method is illustrated using an environmental data set.     

Fitting of self-exciting threshold autoregressive moving average nonlinear time-series model through genetic algorithm and development of out-of-sample forecasts

Self-exciting threshold autoregressive moving average (SETARMA) nonlinear time-series model is considered here. Sufficient conditions for invertibility and stationarity are derived. Parameter estimation algorithm is developed by employing real-coded genetic algorithm stochastic optimization procedure. A significant feature of the work done is that optimal out-of-sample forecasts up to three-step ahead and their forecast error variances are derived analytically. Relevant computer programs are written in statistical analysis system (SAS) and C. As an illustration, annual mackerel catch time-series data are considered. Forecast performance of the fitted model for hold-out data is evaluated by using Naive and Monte Carlo approaches. It is found that optimal out-of-sample forecast values are quite close to actual values and estimated variances are quite close to theoretical values. Superiority of the SETARMA model over the SETAR model for equal predictive ability through Diebold–Mariano test is also established.     

Student Veteran Career Transition Readiness,Career Adaptability,and Academic and Life Satisfaction

Student military veterans pursuing higher education present with unique career development needs. To better understand these needs, the authors conducted an exploratory study to examine career transition readiness, career adaptability, academic satisfaction, and satisfaction with life among 134 student military veterans (34 women, 100 men). Results indicated statistically significant positive correlations between satisfaction with life scores and scores on measures of career transition readiness and career adaptability. Regression results demonstrated that career transition readiness and career adaptability predicted satisfaction with life, but not academic satisfaction. The findings suggest a need to understand the complexity of student veterans’ career and academic development in both research and practice.