Semiparametric Bayesian Techniques for Problems in Circular Data

In this paper, we consider the problems of prediction and tests of hypotheses for directional data in a semiparametric Bayesian set-up. Observations are assumed to be independently drawn from the von Mises distribution and uncertainty in the location parameter is modelled by a Dirichlet process. For the prediction problem, we present a method to obtain the predictive density of a future observation, and, for the testing problem, we present a method of computing the Bayes factor by obtaining the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses under consideration. The semiparametric model is seen to be flexible and robust against prior misspecifications. While analytical expressions are intractable, the methods are easily implemented using the Gibbs sampler. We illustrate the methods with data from two real-life examples.     

Complete diallel crosses plans through balanced incomplete block designs

The present investigation involves the methods of construction of complete diallel cross plans using balanced incomplete block (BIB) designs. Furthermore, the analysis of complete diallel crosses plans are carried out to estimate the general combining ability of the ith line (i=1, r 2, r …, r v) where the intra- block analysis of the adjusted sum of squares for GCA and the unadjusted block sum of squares are also obtained, thereafter the relationship between the estimates of BIB design and the estimates of the GCA effect of CDC plan has been established. Moreover, it has also been shown that the complete diallel crosses design obtained through two BIB designs satisfying v1=b1= 4 5 1+3=v2=b2, r r1=2 5 1+1=r2=k1=k2 and 5 1= 5 2 are universally optimum. These results are further supported by a suitable example of each. However, the need of this study is to show that the analysis of the CDC plan is reducible to the analysis of generating the BIB design.     

ADJUSTING RESIDUALS IN ESTIMATION OF DISPERSION EFFECTS

This paper studies a method of adjusting the ordinary least squares residuals, when estimating and comparing dispersions, at various levels of factors in a replicated factorial experiment. Using a general dispersion model, theoretical results demonstrate the benefits of the method of adjusting residuals. An illustrative example is included.     

Brexit and the Economics of Political Change in Developed Countries

The economic forces underlying Brexit—and the election of Donald Trump in the US—are similar, but they are also well advanced in many European countries, where much of the population faces similar material insecurity and stagnation. These frustrations can easily be channelled by right-wing xenophobic forces. To combat this, the EU needs to undo some of its design flaws and particularly its adherence to fiscal austerity rules. Only a more progressive and more flexible union based on solidarity of peoples is likely to survive.     

Effect of reporting bias in the analysis of spontaneous reporting data

It is well‐known that a spontaneous reporting system suffers from significant under‐reporting of adverse drug reactions from the source population. The existing methods do not adjust for such under‐reporting for the calculation of measures of association between a drug and the adverse drug reaction under study. Often there is direct and/or indirect information on the reporting probabilities. This work incorporates the reporting probabilities into existing methodologies, specifically to Bayesian confidence propagation neural network and DuMouchel's empirical Bayesian methods, and shows how the two methods lead to biased results in the presence of under‐reporting. Considering all the cases to be reported, the association measure for the source population can be estimated by using only exposure information through a reference sample from the source population. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inequalities involving expectations of selected functions in reliability theory to characterize distributions

Recently, authors have studied inequalities involving expectations of selected functions, viz. failure rate, mean residual life, aging intensity function, and log-odds rate which are defined for left truncated random variables in reliability theory to characterize some well-known distributions. However, there has been growing interest in the study of these functions in reversed time (X ? x, instead of X > x) and their applications. In the present work we consider reversed hazard rate, expected inactivity time, and reversed aging intensity function to deal with right truncated random variables and characterize a few statistical distributions.     

A new and easy-to-use measure of literacy,its axiomatic properties and an application

It can be argued that just as there are different kinds of literacy, there are different kinds of illiteracy. A “proximate illiterate,” i.e. an illiterate who has easy access to a literate person, is clearly better off than someone without such access. The existing literature that takes account of these differences (1) defines an illiterate person to be a proximate illiterate if he or she lives in a household with at least one literate person and (2) derives new measures of literacy which typically exceed the standard literacy rate. The latter risks generating policy complacency. The aim of this paper is to suggest a measure of literacy that is not limited by (1) and (2). The measure is axiomatically characterized and its use is illustrated with a numerical exercise for the provinces of South Africa. We wish to thank James Foster and Tapan Mitra for discussions and comments. Any remaining errors are our own.     

Bayesian pitman closeness

The present article brings in the notion of Posterior Pitman Closeness (PPC) in contrast to the usual Pitman Closeness (PC) criterion. Unlike the PC criterion, the PPC criterion does not suffer from lack of transitivity. Also, a posterior median is usually a posterior Pitman closest estimator of the parameter of interest. Examples are provided to illustrate these ideas. Also, some multivariate analogs of these results are presented.