《欧洲思想起源》导论

从古希腊早期哲学家话语研究欧洲思想的起源是不够的,那是传统大树上的枝杈而非根脉。荷马史诗在某种程度上呈现出最早的希腊人的真实历史样貌,其中充满着后世文明人难以理解的野蛮因素。有关神话与传说的知识是重建文明发生过程的主要素材,是将石器时代与文明时代相连接的认知通道。《伊里亚特》《奥德赛》所透露的生活方式和思维方式像一座永久的历史记忆之丰碑,是我们现在所掌握的最早描写欧洲的生活和思想的活的教材。     

中国古代管理哲学与西方现代管理理论的差异及互鉴

中国古代管理哲学与西方现代管理理论的差异和优劣势主要体现在管理的基本价值观、基本思维方式、管理主体和客体、主要目标、权力基础、基本管理方式以及管理创新特征等方面。双方相互借鉴的主要方向是：中国应借鉴西方保护个体利益并重视公平竞争和激励、追求标准化的科学管理、强调经济效益和效率、强调民主与“法治”、鼓励创新并保护创新成果等思想中的合理成分,以及西方在领导理论和工商管理领域的有益成果;西方应借鉴中国的人本论、整体观、系统观和权变观、“中庸之道”、“修己安人”、“和为贵”、世界“大同”、民本论、“道治”、“德治”和“智治”等管理思想中的合理成分,以及在伦理管理、国家管理和军事管理等领域的有益成果。     

A cyclical view of the relationship between corporate governance and strategic management

The vast majority of research on the relationship between corporate governance and strategic management focuses on the impact of corporate governance on strategic management. In this article we propose a cyclical model, highlighting that strategic decisions can also affect corporate governance through shaping firm ownership structure. We discuss the impacts of strategic decisions on firm ownership structure and corporate governance in the contexts of publicly traded firms, private firms, and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. We hope that our cyclical model can promote researchers to develop a more complete view about the relationships between strategic management, ownership structure, and corporate governance.     

A Comparative Pharmacokinetic Estimate of Mercury in U.S. Infants Following Yearly Exposures to Inactivated Influenza Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

The use of thimerosal preservative in childhood vaccines has been largely eliminated over the past decade in the United States because vaccines have been reformulated in single‐dose vials that do not require preservative. An exception is the inactivated influenza vaccines, which are formulated in both multidose vials requiring preservative and preservative‐free single‐dose vials. As part of an ongoing evaluation by USFDA of the safety of biologics throughout their lifecycle, the infant body burden of mercury following scheduled exposures to thimerosal preservative in inactivated influenza vaccines in the United States was estimated and compared to the infant body burden of mercury following daily exposures to dietary methylmercury at the reference dose established by the USEPA. Body burdens were estimated using kinetic parameters derived from experiments conducted in infant monkeys that were exposed episodically to thimerosal or MeHg at identical doses. We found that the body burden of mercury (AUC) in infants (including low birth weight) over the first 4.5 years of life following yearly exposures to thimerosal was two orders of magnitude lower than that estimated for exposures to the lowest regulatory threshold for MeHg over the same time period. In addition, peak body burdens of mercury following episodic exposures to thimerosal in this worst‐case analysis did not exceed the corresponding safe body burden of mercury from methylmercury at any time, even for low‐birth‐weight infants. Our pharmacokinetic analysis supports the acknowledged safety of thimerosal when used as a preservative at current levels in certain multidose infant vaccines in the United States.     

Perceptions of Randomized Security Schedules

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed.     

Signaling to Partially Informed Investors in the Newsvendor Model

We analyze a signaling game between the manager of a firm and an investor in the firm. The manager has private information about the firm's demand and cares about the short‐term stock price assigned by the investor. Previous research has shown that under continuous decision choices and the Intuitive Criterion refinement, the least‐cost separating equilibrium will result, in which a low‐quality firm chooses its optimal capacity and a high‐quality firm over‐invests in order to signal its quality to investors. We build on this research by showing the existence of pooling outcomes in which low‐quality firms over‐invest and high‐quality firms under‐invest so as to provide identical signals to investors. The pooling equilibrium is practically appealing because it yields a Pareto improvement compared to the least‐cost separating equilibrium. Distinguishing features of our analysis are that: (i) we allow the capacity decision to have either discrete or continuous support, and (ii) we allow beliefs to be refined based on either the Undefeated refinement or the Intuitive Criterion refinement. We find that the newsvendor model parameters impact the likelihood of a pooling outcome, and this impact changes in both sign and magnitude depending on which refinement is used.     

Nonparametric Estimation of the Number of Drug Users in Hong Kong Using Repeated Multiple Lists

We update a previous approach to the estimation of the size of an open population when there are multiple lists at each time point. Our motivation is 35 years of longitudinal data on the detection of drug users by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse in Hong Kong. We develop a two‐stage smoothing spline approach. This gives a flexible and easily implemented alternative to the previous method which was based on kernel smoothing. The new method retains the property of reducing the variability of the individual estimates at each time point. We evaluate the new method by means of a simulation study that includes an examination of the effects of variable selection. The new method is then applied to data collected by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse. The parameter estimates obtained are compared with the well known Jolly–Seber estimates based on single capture methods.     

Predictive Inference for Big,Spatial, Non‐Gaussian Data: MODIS Cloud Data and its Change‐of‐Support

Remote sensing of the earth with satellites yields datasets that can be massive in size, nonstationary in space, and non‐Gaussian in distribution. To overcome computational challenges, we use the reduced‐rank spatial random effects (SRE) model in a statistical analysis of cloud‐mask data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite. Parameterisations of cloud processes are the biggest source of uncertainty and sensitivity in different climate models’ future projections of Earth's climate. An accurate quantification of the spatial distribution of clouds, as well as a rigorously estimated pixel‐scale clear‐sky‐probability process, is needed to establish reliable estimates of cloud‐distributional changes and trends caused by climate change. Here we give a hierarchical spatial‐statistical modelling approach for a very large spatial dataset of 2.75 million pixels, corresponding to a granule of MODIS cloud‐mask data, and we use spatial change‐of‐Support relationships to estimate cloud fraction at coarser resolutions. Our model is non‐Gaussian; it postulates a hidden process for the clear‐sky probability that makes use of the SRE model, EM‐estimation, and optimal (empirical Bayes) spatial prediction of the clear‐sky‐probability process. Measures of prediction uncertainty are also given.     

Caught between different worlds: how transgendered women may be "forced" into risky sex

We qualitatively explored reasons why transgendered women may engage in sexual risk that could lead to HIV infection. Specifically, we conducted this investigation with transgendered women identifying as Black/African American. Interviews from 17 participants were audio taped and analyzed. Four themes emerged. Women commonly reported they had a strong need/desire to be loved by men. Many stated they had and would engage in unprotected sex to obtain and preserve such a relationship. Nearly all were currently using female hormones. Nine obtained their hormones through non-medical means including the Internet, transgendered friends, and street vendors. For these women hormone injections often involved sharing needles/syringes. Selling sex was a common practice and many women did so without the benefit of condom use. Finally, women experienced multiple forms of societal discrimination. By being caught between worlds (straight, gay, male, and female) transgendered women may be placed into situations where avoiding HIV risk is extremely difficult.     

Assessing the Playing Field: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Internet Sports Gambling Behavior

Internet gambling is growing rapidly, as is concern about its possible effect on the public’s health. This paper reports the results of the first prospective longitudinal study of actual Internet sports gambling behavior during eight study months. Data include recorded fixed-odds bets on the outcome of sporting contests and live-action bets on the outcome of events within contests for 40,499 Internet sports gambling service subscribers who enrolled during February 2005. We tracked the following primary gambling behaviors: daily totals of the number of bets made, money bet, and money won. We transformed these variables into measures of gambling involvement. We analyzed behavior for both fixed-odds and live-action bets. The median betting behavior of the 39,719 fixed-odds bettors was to place 2.5 bets of €4 (approximately $5.3 US) every fourth day during the median 4 months from first to last bet. This typical pattern incurred a loss of 29% of the amount wagered. The median betting behavior of the 24,794 live-action bettors was to place 2.8 wagers of €4 every fourth day during the median duration of 6 weeks at a loss of 18% of the amount wagered. We also examined the behavior of empirically determined groups of heavily involved bettors whose activity exceeded that of 99% of the sample.