Exact joint forecast regions for vector autoregressive models

Assume that a k-element vector time series follows a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Obtaining simultaneous forecasts of the k elements of the vector time series is an important problem. Based on the Bonferroni inequality, Lutkepohl (1991) derived the procedures which construct the conservative joint forecast regions for the VAR model. In this paper, we propose to use an exact method which provides shorter prediction intervals than does the Bonferroni method. Three illustrative examples are given for comparison of the various VAR forecasting procedures.     

Shared and unique characteristics of school,cyber and family victimization among school-aged children in Hong Kong

Victimizations from online and offline violence, such as sibling violence, school violence and witness of family violence, both have negative associations with victims' mental health and may share similar individual and family characteristics. This study aims to explore the common and differentiated characteristics in the prediction of school, cyber and family victimization and whether there are unique associations within these victimization types. We employed a two-stage stratified sampling method to collect a representative sample of 5567 children aged 3–17 from a cross-sectional, school-based survey in Hong Kong. Results showed that all types of child victimization, including sibling, school and cyberbullying, as well as the witness of violence at home, were positively correlated with each other. Children's age was positively related to the occurrence and cooccurrence of all types of child victimization. Frequent family residential mobility and parents' higher education level were positively related to all types of children's victimization. The scores of all aspects of children's paediatric quality of life were found negatively related to children's school victimization. This study provides insight into the unique and shared elements of children's online and offline victimization. Knowledge of the distinguished familial gradients of child victimization at home and beyond could benefit the development of child victimization prevention.     

The untold friendship of Kenneth Burke and Talcott Parsons

This study treats the relatively unknown fact of Kenneth Burke and Talcott Parsons's personal friendship as a context within which to develop a dramatistic account of friendship and its character in the theoretical inquiry of sociology. Friendship is formulated according to four dramatistic properties in Burke's work—identification, dialectical substance, an ultimate perspective, and the comic attitude. The example of Burke and Parsons's relationship is used to explicate the significance of these four properties for articulating the symbolic action of friendship in both theoretical inquiry and everyday life. The result is the construction of a theory of friendship with universal and critical import, a construction which honors these two important theorists.     

Substance abuse and dependency risk: the role of peer perceptions, marijuana involvement, and attitudes toward substance use among college students

Many college students are using substances at levels consistent with Substance Abuse or Dependence, yet little explanation for this phenomenon exits. The aim of this study was to explore a risk factor profile that best separates those with low and high potential for having a substance use disorder (SUD). A discriminant function analysis revealed that participants with a high probability of having a SUD misperceive others' alcohol and marijuana use to a greater extent than those with a low probability of having a SUD. Implications for educators and counselors on college campuses are discussed.     

Out of Sight,Out of Mind? Patterns of Transnational Contact Among Chinese and Indian Immigrants in Toronto1

There has been considerable discussion in recent decades about the integration patterns of new immigrants. Recognizing advancements in technology and the increased economic integration of countries, some researchers have suggested that the emerging integration trend for immigrants is the transnational pattern, whereby immigrants maintain contact with the home countries. To advance the discussion, this study focuses on general transnational contact, a basic form of transnational activity. The study draws from recently collected large‐scale survey data to explore the patterns of transnational contact within two recent immigrant groups, Asian Indians and Chinese, in Toronto. Our findings show that only a small percentage of immigrants maintain intensive and extensive transnational contact. As well, our findings are less consistent with the transnational perspective than with the assimilation perspective on the effects of socioeconomic background on transnational contacts.     

Using Neural Networks to Model the Behavior and Decisions of Gamblers,in Particular,Cyber-Gamblers

This article describes the use of neural networks (a type of artificial intelligence) and an empirical data sample of, inter alia, the amounts of bets laid and the winnings/losses made in successive games by a number of cyber-gamblers to longitudinally model gamblers’ behavior and decisions as to such bet amounts and the temporal trajectory of winnings/losses. The data was collected by videoing Texas Holdem gamblers at a cyber-gambling website. Six “persistent” gamblers were identified, totaling 675 games. The neural networks on average were able to predict bet amounts and cumulative winnings/losses in successive games accurately to three decimal places of the dollar. A more important conclusion is that the influence of a gambler’s skills, strategies, and personality on his/her successive bet amounts and cumulative winnings/losses is almost totally reflected by the pattern(s) of his/her winnings/losses in the few initial games and his/her gambling account balance. This partially invalidates gamblers’ illusions and fallacies that they can outperform others or even bankers. For government policy-makers, gambling industry operators, economists, sociologists, psychiatrists, and psychologists, this article provides models for gamblers’ behavior and decisions. It also explores and exemplifies the usefulness of neural networks and artificial intelligence at large in the research on gambling.     

A reverse form of welfarism: some reflections on Australian housing policy

In this paper I argue that we have been amiss in diagnosing the role played by government, which has exacerbated the housing problems afflicting low‐income households in Australia. However, I argue further we have placed too much faith in the capacity of managerial interventions to ameliorate what are far more deep‐rooted and systemic challenges. It is suggested that researchers need to adopt a more critical account of the conduct of contemporary government policy making, one that casts aside a view of the State as a benevolent agency whose primary objective is to ameliorate the conditions of the disadvantaged. Instead, the State should be understood as an agency that sustains the conditions necessary for the finance industry, developers and real estate agents, along with well‐off householders and landlords, to reap profits. The political economy of Australian housing, in its current incarnation, performs a form of reverse welfarism that exacerbates social inequality.     

Piece rates and workplace injury: Does survey evidence support Adam Smith?

While piece rates are routinely associated with higher productivity and wages, they can also generate unanticipated effects. Using cross-country European data, we provide among the first general survey evidence of a strong link between piece rates and workplace injury. Despite controls for workplace hazards, job characteristics and worker effort, piece rates workers suffer a 5 percentage point greater likelihood of injury. This remains despite attempts to control for endogeneity and heterogeneity. As piece rate wage premium estimates rarely control for injury likelihood, this raises the specter that part of that premium reflects a compensating wage differential for risk of injury.     

农业综合生产自组织功能优化探讨——基于耗散结构理论视角

农业综合生产系统具备耗散结构的基本条件,拥有自组织功能。城市化和工业化进程一定程度上削弱了它的自组织功能,应从系统负熵流的增加、非平衡性的加强、非线性特征的强化和巨涨落的催生等入手,优化农业综合生产的自组织功能。     

浅谈金融危机中加强社会主义核心价值体系建设

由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机是一场经济危机、深度的思想道德危机和社会危机,对我国经济社会发展造成不小的冲击和影响,但同时,又是加强社会主义核心价值体系建设的有利时机。我们要抓住这一战略机遇,通过大众化、生活化、主流化、形象化和制度化的道路,使社会主义核心价值体系基本内容要求转化为我国人民的自觉追求,为应对国际金融危机和建设和谐社会构建强大的共同思想道德基础。