Changing Business Models and Employee Representation in the Airline Industry: A Comparison of British Airways and Deutsche Lufthansa

In recent years, the notion of business models has gained momentum in management research. Scholars have discussed several barriers to changing business models in established firms. However, the national institutions of market economies have not yet been discussed as barriers, even though they can constrain the latitude of action of a firm's management. Based on interviews and a longitudinal content analysis, we analyse the extent to which full service carriers in two countries (British Airways in the UK and Deutsche Lufthansa in Germany) have adopted elements of a low cost model over time. Furthermore, we investigate how this process has been influenced by the differences in each national institutional context. We particularly focus on the role of the rights of employee representatives in changes in business models. Our results show that British Airways has moved its business model more in the direction of low cost carriers than Deutsche Lufthansa, although the business model of the former airline still differs significantly from that of a typical low cost carrier. We identify national institutions that potentially strengthen the position of employee representatives as a factor that can influence, and also act as a barrier to, business model change.     

Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment

We introduce a combined density nowcasting (CDN) approach to dynamic factor models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random variables that depend on past nowcasting performance and other learning mechanisms. The combined density scheme is incorporated in a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method which rebalances the set of nowcasted densities in each period using updated information on the time-varying weights. Experiments with simulated data show that CDN works particularly well in a situation of early data releases with relatively large data uncertainty and model incompleteness. Empirical results, based on U.S. real-time data of 120 monthly variables, indicate that CDN gives more accurate density nowcasts of U.S. GDP growth than a model selection strategy and other combination strategies throughout the quarter with relatively large gains for the two first months of the quarter. CDN also provides informative signals on model incompleteness during recent recessions. Focusing on the tails, CDN delivers probabilities of negative growth, that provide good signals for calling recessions and ending economic slumps in real time.     

Interventions in child welfare: A Swedish inventory

In Swedish child welfare, there are no mandatory guidelines on what interventions to use. Local authorities are able to set their own criteria for implementing or designing interventions. We carried out a survey to identify interventions in use in Children's Social Services and Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Care in Sweden. A total of 102 interventions were stated to have been in use, with between 31 and 45 different interventions for each of the four different child welfare populations. Of the 102 interventions, 56 were designed outside Sweden and later imported. Only 27 interventions were supported with some kind of research evidence. About half of the interventions targeted the child. Possible implications for practice and research are discussed.