比头发还乱的一代——从管虎看中国"第六代"导演的个性

“第六代”只是一个概念虚拟的标签。从影像风格、电影题材、导演历程和人生经验来看,“第六代”是一批乱发般的多元常变电影工作者,20世纪80年代所使用的中国电影断代法不再适合改革开放后中国电影发展的实际情况。     

現階段澳門物價上漲的成因、趨勢及對策

本文通過對2004年第二季度以来澳门物價水平的燮勤進行深入的分析,提出外部經濟環境燮化是现陪段物價上漲的主因,澳門内部需求過熱则加劇了物價上涨的程度。並在此基礎上分析澳门未来物價水平的趨势及提出相應的對策。     

Age,Experience, and Schooling: Decomposing Earnings Inequality in the United States and Brazil*

This article analyzes age and experience profiles of earnings inequality for U.S. and Brazilian males. Decomposition of the inequality profiles using a standard human capital earnings equation clarifies the determinants of cross-sectional inequality profiles and demonstrates a number of important differences in the shape of the two countries' profiles and in their underlying components. Most dramatic are Brazil's higher returns to schooling and higher variance in years of schooling, both factors contributing to the significantly higher level of income inequality in Brazil. Changes in the distribution of schooling across cohorts are shown to play a central role in explaining cross-sectional inequality profiles within each country and differences in earnings inequality in the United States and Brazil.     

The effects of temperature on human fertility

Monthly birth and temperature data for a variety of states and countries are used to estimate the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on fertility. Regressions of monthly births on a flexible specification of lagged monthly temperature show that temperature has quantitatively important effects on both seasonal and nonseasonal variation in births. Summer temperature extremes reduce conceptions in the southern United States, explaining a substantial part of the observed seasonal birth pattern. Extreme cold shows no evidence of affecting conceptions. The results also show significant seasonality in births even after accounting for temperature. Controls for monthly temperature do not explain the persistent spring peak in births in northern Europe. This finding suggests that other factors play an important role.     

Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation

If event data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by 2 recent US censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust US age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Multiplicative Counting Process Intensity Functions with an Application to the Beijing SARS Epidemic

The local polynomial methods and martingale estimating equations are used to develop closed form estimators of the intensity function and its derivatives for multiplicative counting process models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are established. The estimator generalizes that proposed by Ramlau-Hansen (1983 Ramlau-Hansen , H. ( 1983 ). Smoothing counting process intensities by means of kernel function . Ann. Statist. 11 ( 2 ): 453 – 466 . [Google Scholar]) with a smaller bias than the Ramlau-Hansen intensity estimator. The derivative estimators give smoother estimates than the Ramlau-Hansen derivative estimators. The proposed estimators are applied to analyze the infection rate and its derivatives of the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Beijing, China.