THE INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF VOLATILITY SHOCKS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

This paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the international transmission of volatility shocks. Using this model we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to US real GDP leads to a decline in UK GDP of 1% relative to trend and a 0.7% increase in UK CPI relative to trend at the two‐year horizon. Using a nonlinear open‐economy DSGE model, we find that these empirical estimates are consistent with the response to a perturbation to the volatility of foreign “supply” type shocks, while an increase in the volatility of demand shocks has a negligible impact.     

Behavioral Channels in the Cross‐Market Diffusion of Major Terrorism Shocks

The diffusion mechanism of terrorist shocks to third countries’ stock market responses is explored by employing a Heckit model. Stock market response is broken down to (i) the direction of reaction and (ii) conditional on negative reaction, its magnitude. The analysis puts forward two behavioral factors (memory‐based utility/availability heuristic, social amplification of risk), proxied by past terrorism record and terrorism risk concern as the shocks’ diffusion channels. The findings are that the likelihood and the size of negative stock market reaction increase with terrorism record and risk concern. Additionally, weak evidence is uncovered for a mitigation of risk concern's impact by favorable macroeconomic stance. Furthermore, the impact of behavioral factors, especially over the magnitude of reaction, is robust when controlling for economic linkages. The latter are also significant predictors of the direction of stock market reaction, but not of its magnitude.     

On a measure of dependence based on fisher's information matrix

A class of measures of dependence between two random vectors is defined, in terms of the canonical correlations obtained from Fisher's information matrix. Some basic properties are proved for this class of measures. Examples are given to illustrate that the class gives good measures, under normal models. Interesting measures are also arise for bivariate models where the correlation coefficient does not exist for some values of the parameters of the model.     

Adolescent Online Gambling: The Impact of Parental Practices and Correlates with Online Activities

We present results from a cross-sectional study of the entire adolescent student population aged 12–19 of the island of Kos and their parents, on the relationship between their Internet gambling and respective parental practices, including aspects of psychological bonding and online security measures. The sample consisted of 2,017 students (51.8% boys, 48.2% girls). Our results indicate that gender, parenting practices as perceived by the adolescents and distinct patterns of adolescent Internet activities are among the best predictor variables for Internet gambling. Security practices exercised by the parents failed to make an impact on the extent of Internet gambling, demonstrating the need for specific measures to tackle this phenomenon since the provision of simple education on the dangers of the Internet is not sufficient to this regard.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness: The Case of Developing Economies

This paper examines the importance of trade openness for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, using a sample of 36 developing economies for the period 1990–2008. It provides a direct test of causality between FDI inflows, trade openness and other key variables in developing regions of the world: Latin America, Asia, Africa, CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and Eastern Europe. Trade openness is measured by using eight different indicators. The main empirical findings of the panel regression analysis reveal that in the long run, trade openness contributes positively to the inflow of FDI in developing economies.     

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN EUROPE: UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION AND SUBSEQUENT EMPLOYMENT STABILITY

This paper provides evidence on the effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment and subsequent employment duration in Europe using individual data from the European Community Household Panel. Country‐specific estimates based on a multivariate discrete‐time duration model, which takes into account dynamic selection issues and the endogeneity of benefit receipt, suggest that although receiving benefits has an adverse effect in the sense of increasing unemployment duration, there is also a positive effect associated with the increased duration of subsequent employment. This beneficial effect of unemployment insurance on employment stability is pronounced in countries with relatively generous benefit systems, and for recipients who have remained unemployed for at least six months. These findings are in line with theories that suggest a matching effect of unemployment insurance. (JEL: J64, J65, C41)     

Discrete approximations to the Csiszár,Renyi, and Fisher measures of information

The problem of loss of information due to the discretization of data and its estimate is studied for various measures of information. The results of Ghurye and Johnson (1981) are generalized and supplemented for the Csiszár and Renyi measures of information as well as for Fisher's information matrix.     

An EM algorithm for estimating negative binomial parameters

An EM algorithm is proposed for computing estimates of parameters of the negative bi-nomial distribution; the algorithm does not involve further iterations in the M-step, in contrast with the one given in Schader & Schmid (1985). The approach can be applied to the corresponding problem in the logarithmic series distribution. The convergence of the proposed scheme is investigated by simulation, the observed Fisher information is derivedand numerical examples based on real data are presented.