Post-data evaluation of prior assessment

In this paper we present methods to verify whether a prior distribution coincides with a sample or not within Bayes statistics. We present methods to generalize well known classical tests to this problem and construct a new test. An additional method is based on comparison between prior and posterior distribution. We illustrate the theory with applications to the Exponential distribution.     

The impossibility of a paretian loyalist

Amartya Sen has argued the impossibility of the Paretian liberal. While his abstract argument is compelling, the concrete significance of the conclusion is in some doubt. This is because it is not clear how important liberalism in his sense is; in particular it is not clear that the sort of liberalism required for the impossibility result is a compelling variety. We show that even if the argument cannot be used to establish the inconsistency of Paretianism and common-or-garden liberalism, it can be adapted to prove a parallel impossibility. This is the impossibility of combining the Pareto criterion with a loyalty constraint involving certain claim-rights rather than liberty-rights. The impossibility of the Paretian loyalist is of interest in itself but it is also interesting for the light it throws on the source of Sen-style impossibilities.     

Mothers who killed or attempted to kill their child: life circumstances, childhood abuse, and types of killing

The objectives of the present study were to examine the life circumstances, childhood abuse, and types of homicidal acts of 48 mothers who killed/attempted to kill their child(ren) under age 12 between 1970-96 in Finland. Data on the mothers'life stresses, psychological problems, and childhood abuse were collected from mental state examination (MSE) reports. The cases were divided into 15 neonaticides and 33 mothers who killed an older child. Childhood abuse was documented in 63% of the mothers' MSE reports. Qualitative analysis identified neonaticides,joint homicide-suicide attempts, impulsive aggression, psychotic acts, postpartum depression, and abusive acts. Nonlinear principal components analysis showed that different variables were related to the neonaticide and non-neonaticide cases. We concluded that despite differences in the psychosocial profiles of neonaticides and other maternal homicidal acts the cycle of violence perspective can be applied to both cases, even though it may not be a sufficient explanation for maternal child killings.     

Brother correlations in earnings in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden compared to the United States

The correlation in economic status among siblings is a useful “omnibus measure” of the overall impact of family and community factors on adult economic status. In this study we compare brother correlations in long-run (permanent) earnings between the United States, on one hand, and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) on the other. Our base case results, based on very similar sample criteria and definitions for all countries, show that this correlation is above 0.40 in the United States and in the range 0.14–0.26 in the Nordic countries. Even though these results turn out to be somewhat sensitive to some assumptions that have to be made, we conclude that the family and community factors are more important determinants of long-run earnings in the United States than in the Nordic countries. Received: 27 July 2000/Accepted: 7 March 2001 All correspondence to: Anders Bj?rklund. Comments from two referees, conference participants at ESPE2000 and the Canadian Employment Research Forum, seminar participants in Aarhus, Uppsala, Bonn, and Stockholm are gratefully acknowledged. We thank NOS-S for financial support. The Swedish data collection was also supported by HSFR and SFR. The Finnish data were obtained with support from the Yrj? Jahnsson Foundation. We thank Tom Erik Aab? for preparing the Norwegian data, and Esben Agerbo for computational assistance with the Danish data. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Demographic change and social security

This paper gives an overview over some central aspects of the highly complex topic, pointing out, e.g. the need for more longitudinal research in understanding effects of structural changes in demography and economy on social security. Starting from challenges by an ageing population for health and pension schemes it is briefly discussed whether changes in labour force participation or restructuring public expenditure can soften financing problems. Concerning reforms in pension schemes first changing retirement ages is briefly discussed and then some of the shortcomings in the debate on capital funding versus pay-as-you-go fincancing.Revised, updated and extended version of a lecture, given at the First Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Rotterdam, September 18, 1987. Revision and extension were inspired by two referees.     

Climate Change Beliefs and Perceptions of Weather‐Related Changes in the United Kingdom

Public perception research in different countries has suggested that real and perceived periods of high temperature strengthen people's climate change beliefs. Such findings raise questions about the climate change beliefs of people in regions with moderate climates. Relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be associated with perceived changes in other weather‐related events, such as precipitation or flooding. We examine the relationship between perceived changes in weather‐related events and climate change beliefs among U.K. residents at a time of below‐average winter temperatures and recent flooding. National survey data (n = 1,848) revealed that heat waves and hot summers were perceived to have become less common during respondents’ lifetimes, while flooding, periods of heavy rainfall, coastal erosions, and mild winters were perceived to have increased in frequency and cold winters were perceived to be unchanged. Although perceived changes in hot‐weather‐related events were positively associated with climate change beliefs, perceived changes in wet‐weather‐related events were found to be an even stronger predictor. Self‐reported experience of “flooding in own area” and “heat‐wave discomfort” also significantly contributed to climate change beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of salient weather‐related events and experiences in the formation of beliefs about climate change. We link our findings to research in judgment and decision making, and propose that those wishing to engage with the public on the issue of climate change should not limit their focus to heat.     

Conceptualizing and Measuring Immigration Policies: A Comparative Perspective

In the last decade, researchers have developed many innovative ideas for the construction of indices measuring immigration policies. Methodological considerations have, however, been largely absent from the discussion. To close this gap, this paper investigates the characteristics of existing indices by critically comparing and discussing them. We start by providing a definition of immigration policy which may serve as a benchmark when assessing the indices. By means of the analytical framework developed by Munck and Verkuilen (2002), which we adapt and customize for our analysis, we then evaluate the conceptualization, measurement, and aggregation, as well as the empirical scope of thirteen immigration policy indices. We discuss methodological strengths and weaknesses of the indices, how these affect the research questions that can be answered and what the next steps in index building within the field of immigration policy should be.