Detecting changes in the mean of functional observations

Summary.  Principal component analysis has become a fundamental tool of functional data analysis. It represents the functional data as X _i ( t )= μ ( t )+Σ_{1≤ l <∞} η _{i ,  l} +  v _l ( t ), where μ is the common mean, v _l are the eigenfunctions of the covariance operator and the η _{i ,  l} are the scores. Inferential procedures assume that the mean function μ ( t ) is the same for all values of i . If, in fact, the observations do not come from one population, but rather their mean changes at some point(s), the results of principal component analysis are confounded by the change(s). It is therefore important to develop a methodology to test the assumption of a common functional mean. We develop such a test using quantities which can be readily computed in the R package fda. The null distribution of the test statistic is asymptotically pivotal with a well-known asymptotic distribution. The asymptotic test has excellent finite sample performance. Its application is illustrated on temperature data from England.     

Two sample inference in functional linear models

We propose a method of comparing two functional linear models in which explanatory variables are functions (curves) and responses can be either scalars or functions. In such models, the role of parameter vectors (or matrices) is played by integral operators acting on a function space. We test the null hypothesis that these operators are the same in two independent samples. The complexity of the test statistics increases as we move from scalar to functional responses and relax assumptions on the covariance structure of the regressors. They all, however, have an asymptotic chi‐squared distribution with the number of degrees of freedom which depends on a specific setting. The test statistics are readily computable using the R package fda , and have good finite sample properties. The test is applied to egg‐laying curves of Mediterranean flies and to data from terrestrial magnetic observatories. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Estimating the Risk of a Down's Syndrome Term Pregnancy Using Age and Serum Markers: Comparison of Various Methods

The risk of an individual woman having a pregnancy associated with Down's syndrome is estimated given her age, α-fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotropin, and pregnancy-specific β1-glycoprotein levels. The classical estimation method is based on discriminant analysis under the assumption of lognormality of the marker values, but logistic regression is also applied for data classification. In the present work, we compare the performance of the two methods using a dataset containing the data of almost 89,000 unaffected and 333 affected pregnancies. Assuming lognormality of the marker values, we also calculate the theoretical detection and false positive rates for both the methods.     

Confidence bands for ROC curves

We develop two methods to construct confidence bands for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve without estimating the densities of the underlying distributions. The first method is based on the smoothed bootstrap while the second method uses the Bonferroni inequality. As an illustration, we provide confidence bands for the ROC curve using data on Duchanne Muscular Dystrophy.     

Testing for changes in the covariance structure of linear processes

We consider several procedures to detect changes in the mean or the covariance structure of a linear process. The tests are based on the weighted CUSUM process. The limit distributions of the test statistics are derived under the no change null hypothesis. We develop new strong and weak approximations for the sample mean as well as the sample correlations of linear processes. A small Monte Carlo simulation illustrates the applicability of our results.     

BOOTSTRAPPED MULTI-DIMENSIONAL PRODUCT LIMIT PROCESS

We approximate the limit process for a multivariate censored survival distribution using the bootstrap. The empirical process has a complicated covariance structure depending on the survival and censoring. The bootstrapped process provides a means to develop distribution-free procedures including simultaneous confidence bands. Results extend to comparison of multivariate survival distributions. A gallstone study is examined in some detail.     

Structural breaks in panel data: Large number of panels and short length time series

The detection of (structural) breaks or the so called change point problem has drawn increasing attention from the theoretical, applied economic and financial fields. Much of the existing research concentrates on the detection of change points and asymptotic properties of their estimators in panels when N, the number of panels, as well as T, the number of observations in each panel are large. In this paper we pursue a different approach, i.e., we consider the asymptotic properties when N→∞ while keeping T fixed. This situation is typically related to large (firm-level) data containing financial information about an immense number of firms/stocks across a limited number of years/quarters/months. We propose a general approach for testing for break(s) in this setup. In particular, we obtain the asymptotic behavior of test statistics. We also propose a wild bootstrap procedure that could be used to generate the critical values of the test statistics. The theoretical approach is supplemented by numerous simulations and by an empirical illustration. We demonstrate that the testing procedure works well in the framework of the four factors CAPM model. In particular, we estimate the breaks in the monthly returns of US mutual funds during the period January 2006 to February 2010 which covers the subprime crises.     

Atypical feeding of woodpeckers,crows and redstarts on mass-swarming <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hydropsyche pellucidula</Emphasis> caddisflies attracted to glass panes

Artificial shiny dark objects reflecting horizontally polarized light (e.g. asphalt roads, black cars, solar panels) can attract polarotactic aquatic insects in mass. Glass buildings on the riverside also lure swarming caddisflies emerging from the river. These caddisfly swarms are a temporary rich food source for certain bird species, such as white wagtails (Motacilla alba), house sparrows (Passer domesticus), magpies (Pica pica) and great tits (Parus major). We report here about our observation of great spotted woodpeckers (Dendrocopos major), hooded crows (Corvus cornix) and black redstarts (Phoenicurus ochruros) feeding atypically on Hydropsyche pellucidula caddisflies swarming at glass buildings placed on the shore of the river Danube in Budapest (Hungary).     

International Conference on "Statistical Latent Variables Models in the Health Sciences"

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International Conference on "Statistical Latent Variables Models in the Health Sciences"     

Commuting Matrices in the Queue Length and Sojourn Time Analysis of MAP/MAP/1 Queues

Queues with Markovian arrival and service processes, i.e., MAP/MAP/1 queues, have been useful in the analysis of computer and communication systems and different representations for their stationary sojourn time and queue length distribution have been derived. More specifically, the class of MAP/MAP/1 queues lies at the intersection of the class of QBD queues and the class of semi-Markovian queues. While QBD queues have a matrix exponential representation for their queue length and sojourn time distribution of order N and N², respectively, where N is the size of the background continuous time Markov chain, the reverse is true for a semi-Markovian queue. As the class of MAP/MAP/1 queues lies at the intersection, both the queue length and sojourn time distribution of a MAP/MAP/1 queue has an order N matrix exponential representation. The aim of this article is to understand why the order N² distributions of the sojourn time of a QBD queue and the queue length of a semi-Markovian queue can be reduced to an order N distribution in the specific case of a MAP/MAP/1 queue. We show that the key observation exists in establishing the commutativity of some fundamental matrices involved in the analysis of the MAP/MAP/1 queue.