Contents Volume 54

Volume Contents

Contents Volume 54     

Comment se font les administrations : analyser des activités administratives constituantes

Between studies in historical sociology on changes in public administrations and microsociological analyses of the ordinary work done by civil servants, an intermediate perspective is advocated, one centered on “constituent administrative activities”. Following a panorama of the varied researches on public administrations, the proposal is made to focus on the arrangements that shape administrations and form their essential operations. Recruitment, personnel evaluation, the division of labor, the restructuring of hierarchies and the activities of keeping written records and statistics (writing and counting) should be the subjects of study. When placed in their historical and social contexts, they help us better understand how public administrations last and change. Discussing the scale of analysis and making comparisons over time and in space, this article presents the other contributions to this special issue. Less linear approaches are suggested for analyzing the historical processes of the “bureaucratization” and “managerialization” of administrative systems.     

Harsanyi's Aggregation Theorem: multi-profile version and unsettled questions

Harsanyi's Aggregation Theorem states that if the individuals' as well as the moral observer's utility functions are von Neumann-Morgenstern, and a Pareto condition holds, then the latter function is affine in terms of the former. Sen and others have objected to Harsanyi's use of this result as an argument for utilitarianism. The present article proves an analogue of the Aggregation Theorem within the multi-profile formalism of social welfare functionals. This restatement and two closely related results provide a framework in which the theorem can be compared with well-known characterisations of utilitarianism, and its ethical significance can be better appreciated. While several interpretative questions remain unsettled, it is argued that at least one major objection among those raised by Sen has been answered.The author is grateful to V. Barham, J. Broome, M. Fleurbaey, D. Hausman, S. Kolm, J. Roemer, and P. Suppes, for useful discussions and suggestions. Special thanks are due to C. d'Aspremont, N. McClennen, J. Weymark, and an anonymous referee for detailed comments on an earlier version. The usual caveat applies. The author also gratefully acknowledges financial support from the SPES programme of the Union Européenne.     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

Tools for decision making under imprecise risk

Generalizing risk, imprecise risk is a situation where available objective information is expressible by a lower probability. We study properties of certain lower probabilities in metrizable spaces. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for stability of their cores under image and mixture, which are useful features in applying Expected Utility Theory under imprecise risk. Received: December 2000; revised version: March 2001     

Extremely Premature and Very Low Birthweight Infants: A Double Hazard Population?

This article evaluates the contributions of birth status (defined by gestational age and birthweight) and family adversity at birth and at age 7 to explaining behavior problems at age 7. The behaviors of 96 extremely preterm and very low birth‐weight children and 66 full‐term children were assessed in a school setting by peers, teachers and parents. The results show that a significant relationship exists between birth status and isolation and social withdrawal problems as well as between birth status and social immaturity and inattention problems. Family adversity at birth has a significant contribution to aggressive behaviors reported by the three sources whereas, at age 7, this index is associated only with aggressive behaviors and social immaturity problems reported by parents. In conclusion, the results of the present study qualify the findings of studies that suggest that at school age, the effect of prematurity decreases and that behavior problems are explained chiefly by family environment characteristics. Our results indicate that the findings must take into account the cohort studied, the environmental measures used, the type of behaviors assessed as well as the type of informants.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Setting Priorities in Protecting Bridges Against Terrorist Attacks

This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection.     

THE EVALUATION PHASE OF SYSTEMIC FAMILY THERAPY*

The initial, evaluation phase of family therapy is of decisive importance within the systemic perspective. Contacting a therapist is always a complex action for a family. The therapist's evaluation must include the possibility that continued contact may influence the family negatively and limit their potential for change. If there appears to be a logical context in which continued therapy can be justified, it will be necessary to use the first three or four sessions to collect essential data and to organize them meaningfully. It is essential to clarify the circular interaction that is maintaining the symptom, as well as the presence of specific family structures and traditions, and the kind of relationships the family attempts to establish with the therapist. On the basis of this information, the therapist can build models of the family's functioning. These models, according to general system theory, make possible logical intervention in complicated, living systems, without distorting them by artificially splitting them into their component parts. Two models that are important to our treatment perspective—the phenomenological and the mythical—are presented.     

LIKELIHOODS WITH ROUNDED DATA

Observed continuous random variates are effectively “discretized” by the limited accuracy with which they can be recorded. The effects of this on the likelihood function and on maximum likelihood estimation are often overlooked. Some published data for the exponential distribution are examined and the results compared with earlier studies. A note on estimation for the normal distribution is also given.