The Probabilistic Final Standing Calculator: a fair stochastic tool to handle abruptly stopped football seasons

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - The COVID-19 pandemic has left its marks in the sports world, forcing the full stop of all sports-related activities in the first half of 2020. Football...     

Modeling marginal features in studies of recurrent events in the presence of a terminal event

We study models for recurrent events with special emphasis on the situation where a terminal event acts as a competing risk for the recurrent events process and where there may be gaps between periods during which subjects are at risk for the recurrent event. We focus on marginal analysis of the expected number of events and show that an Aalen–Johansen type estimator proposed by Cook and Lawless is applicable in this situation. A motivating example deals with psychiatric hospital admissions where we supplement with analyses of the marginal distribution of time to the competing event and the marginal distribution of the time spent in hospital. Pseudo-observations are used for the latter purpose.

     

Fathers' employment in a father-friendly welfare state: does fatherhood affect men's working hours?

An important aim of Norwegian work–family policies is to enhance the family role of fathers. Time-use surveys show a slight increase in fathers’ family work, but we still know little about the relationship between men's family circumstances and working hours. On the one hand, policy measures encourage the greater involvement of fathers in family life. On the other hand, men are the main providers in most couples and employment and breadwinning are still important components of men's fathering identity. In this paper, we examine the relationship between fatherhood and working time, with a particular focus on the possible effects of the number and ages of children. Utilizing the Norwegian Labour Force Survey 2005, we find that men's contractual working hours are not significantly affected by their parental status, but men do curtail their actual working hours when they have young children, and particularly if there is only one child in the household. However, men with school-aged children actually work longer hours than non-fathers and men with young children.     

The Effects of Ethnic Minority Adolescents' Ethnic Self‐Identification on Friendship Selection

This study investigated the effects of ethnic minority adolescents' ethnic self‐identification (host country, dual, or heritage country) on friendship choices among ethnic majority and minority peers. Hypotheses were derived from similarity–attraction and social identity theory and tested using longitudinal social network data from 1,004 middle school students (five schools) in Germany. Results showed that ethnic minority adolescents' ethnic self‐identification affected friendship selection beyond ethnic homophily. While host country and dual identification was beneficial with respect to friendships with both ethnic majority and minority peers, heritage country identification was detrimental to relations with both of them.     

How Terrorism Affects Attitudes toward Democracy: Tunisia in 2015

Tunisia is the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring as a democracy. However, Tunisian democracy is threatened by political divisions, economic problems, and the threat of terrorist attacks. We shed light on Tunisia's democratic prospects by examining (1) the degree to which major terrorist attacks in 2015 influenced Tunisian public opinion on democracy and (2) the extent to which preference for a democratic system affected opinions on the prospects for democracy in Tunisia. We use data from three waves of a nationwide survey conducted just before and just after Tunisia's first major terrorist attack, and just after the country's second major terrorist attack. We demonstrate that after the attacks the Tunisian public became less favourable toward democracy and less optimistic that Tunisia would soon be ready for it. Such scepticism was widespread, affecting people who preferred democracy as much as those who did not. We conclude that the prospects for Tunisian democracy are more precarious than is sometimes assumed.     

Two’s a Crowd: Women Candidates in Concurrent Elections

ABSTRACT

Most research on evaluations of women candidates considers single elections in isolation. Using two Dynamic Process Tracing experiments, this article examines whether voters alter their evaluations of women candidates, as well as their willingness to learn about and vote for them, based on the presence of other women running simultaneously in concurrent contests. We find a consistent pattern in which female candidates are not adversely affected when they are the only woman on a voter’s ballot, but they are disadvantaged when other women appear on the same party’s ballot in other races. This effect is more prominent for women in lower offices: women running for the House of Representatives are more disadvantaged than women running for higher offices are.     

What's the problem? A problem-based approach to the reform of the Norwegian drug rehabilitation sector

This article explores how the scope of solutions to complex problems is determined by the way in which the problem is formulated. We inquire into this by means of a theory-driven case study of the reform in the Norwegian drug rehabilitation sector and the Tyrili facility. We analyze divergent approaches to drug rehabilitation by means of a problem formulation framework, which distinguishes between (1) the value dimensions of given problems, and (2) the phases of problem solving activities. Based on this inquiry, we arrive at a set of propositions, in which we propose that the two approaches differ in their inclusion of various value dimensions. Moreover, we suggest that the reform pursued increased efficiency as a solution to a reductionist formulation of the problem, which challenged Tyrili's opportunity to solve the problem in the multidimensional manner they conceive of it. This is an argument against a one-dimensional maximization of efficiency as a pursuit of quality in social services.     

Modeling Receptor-Mediated Processes with Dioxin: Implications for Pharmacokinetics and Risk Assessment

Dioxin (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin; TCDD), a widespread polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbon, caused tumors in the liver and other sites when administered chronically to rats at doses as low as 0.01 μg/kg/day. It functions in combination with a cellular protein, the Ah receptor, to alter gene regulation, and this resulting modulation of gene expression is believed to be obligatory for both dioxin toxicity and carcinogenicity. The U.S. EPA is reevaluating its dioxin risk assessment and, as part of this process, will be developing risk assessment approaches for chemicals, such as dioxin, whose toxicity is receptor-mediated. This paper describes a receptor-mediated physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) model for the tissue distribution and enzyme-inducing properties of dioxin and discusses the potential role of these models in a biologically motivated risk assessment. In this model, ternary interactions among the Ah receptor, dioxin, and DNA binding sites lead to enhanced production of specific hepatic proteins. The model was used to examine the tissue disposition of dioxin and the induction of both a dioxin-binding protein (presumably, cytochrome P4501A2), and cytochrome P4501A1. Tumor promotion correlated more closely with predicted induction of P4501A1 than with induction of hepatic binding proteins. Although increased induction of these proteins is not expected to be causally related to tumor formation, these physiological dosimetry and gene-induction response models will be important for biologically motivated dioxin risk assessments in determining both target tissue dose of dioxin and gene products and in examining the relationship between these gene products and the cellular events more directly involved in tumor promotion.