COMBAT EXPOSURE,CIGARETTE CONSUMPTION,AND SUBSTANCE USE

This study estimates the relationship between combat exposure and several risky health behaviors: cigarette consumption, binge drinking, and drug use. We find that the U.S. active duty military personnel deployed to combat zones with enemy firefight are more likely to subsequently smoke cigarettes, consume alcohol, and use illicit drugs than their counterparts deployed to noncombat operations. Our results suggest that the mental health effects of combat can explain up to two‐thirds of the estimated association between combat exposure and risky health behaviors. (JEL H56, I12)     

Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research

Numerous studies and practical experiences with risk have demonstrated the importance of risk perceptions for people's behavior. In this narrative review, we describe and reflect upon some of the lines of research that we feel have been important in helping us understand the factors and processes that shape people's risk perceptions. In our review, we propose that much of the research on risk perceptions to date can be grouped according to three dominant perspectives and, thus, approaches to study design; they are: the characteristics of hazards, the characteristics of risk perceivers, and the application of heuristics to inform risk judgments. In making these distinctions, we also highlight what we see as outstanding challenges for researchers and practitioners. We also highlight a few new research questions that we feel warrant attention.     

ANTITRUST ECONOMICS AND CONSUMER PROTECTION ECONOMICS IN POLICY AND LITIGATION: WHY THE DISPARITY?

The lag in the use of microeconomics in consumer protection policy and litigation—as compared with the use of microeconomics in antitrust/competition policy and litigation—has at least three causes: a considerably shorter period of intellectual development; the specific historical origins and culture of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), where this disparity is especially noticeable; and the splintering of consumer protection responsibilities across a very large number of federal and state agencies. This paper will expand on these themes and discuss their implications—including the opportunities for expanded research in the area of consumer protection economics. (JEL B12, B13, B21, D18, L41)     

Family Policy and Complex Contemporary Families: A Decade in Review and Implications for the Next Decade of Research and Policy Practice

Prior Journal of Marriage and Family decade-in-review articles have grappled with the definition and role of family policy for research and policy practice while emphasizing its value to both. In this article, we begin with a broad conceptualization of family policy that encompasses actions intended to achieve explicitly stated goals for families (explicit policies) and those that affect families without an explicitly stated goal for doing so (implicit policies), which we believe provides a solid framework for guiding and understanding both research and practice in the field. Second, we review major U.S. policy initiatives in the past decade and their documented and potential effects on families. Third, we describe several key aspects by which contemporary families have become more diverse and complex. Fourth, we discuss the implications of ongoing family complexity for public policies. We conclude with a discussion about future research and policy development in the context of contemporary family complexity.     

Aquatic landscape change,extirpations, and introductions in the Chicago Region

Urban Ecosystems - Prior to European settlement, swamps, marshes, lakes, and streams were the major landscape features of the Chicago region. Much of this has been altered or lost in the past...     

The Effects of Judicial Strength and Rule of Law on Portfolio Investment in the Developing World*

Objective. Applying existing theories relating to investment risk, this article examines the effects of judicial strength and adherence to the rule of law on portfolio investment in the developing world. We aim to demonstrate that countries with higher levels of judicial strength and rule of law are more able to attract portfolio investment because they provide greater protection of property rights and a better risk environment for investors. Methods. Using time‐series data for 79 developing countries for the period 1996–2005, we employ panel‐corrected standard errors multivariate regressions to demonstrate that higher levels of judicial strength and rule of law are associated with higher levels of portfolio investment. Results. We find that a one standard deviation increase in overall judicial strength and rule of law results in more than a 50 percent increase in portfolio investment. In separate analyses, we show that a one standard deviation increase in specific measures of judicial independence, impartial courts, and protection of property rights leads to increases in portfolio investment ranging from 27 percent to 184 percent. Conclusion. Judicial strength and adherence to the rule of law are important determinants of portfolio investment in the developing world.     

EFFECTS OF EXPOSURE ON PREVALENCE AND CUMULATIVE RELATIVE RISK: DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS IN A RECURSIVE HAZARD MODEL

This paper outlines decomposition methods for assessing how exposure affects prevalence and cumulative relative risk. Let     x     denote a vector of exogenous covariates and suppose that a single dimension of time   t   governs two event processes     T ₁  and   T ₂.    If the occurrence of the event     T ₁    determines entry into the risk of the event     T ₂,    then subgroup variation in     T ₁    will affect the prevalence     T ₂,    even if subgroups in the population are otherwise identical. Although researchers often acknowledge this phenomenon, the literature has not provided procedures to assess the magnitude of an exposure effect of     T ₁    on the prevalence of     T ₂.    We derive decompositions that assess how variation in exposure generated by direct and indirect effects of the covariates     x     affect measures of absolute and relative prevalence of     T ₂.    We employ a parametric but highly flexible specification for baseline hazard for the     T ₁  and   T ₂    processes and use the resulting parametric proportional hazard model to illustrate the direct and indirect effects of family structure when     T ₁    is age at first sexual intercourse and     T ₂    is age at a premarital first birth for data on a cohort of non-hispanic white U.S. women.     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.