Technological forecasting a criticism of the Delphi technique

The author criticises the “Delphi” method of forecasting technological developments by obtaining a consensus of opinion among experts. He argues that the problem is not to forecast what might happen, but rather to decide what should happen and he suggests improvements in the Delphi technique which would change it from an ad hoc method old crytal ball gazing” into a system for continuous consultation among “responsible organizations”.     

Iterated full partitions

Algebraic calculations that depend upon a full partition can be automated through the use of an operator P for the derivation of such a partition. Calculations that require the repeated use of P are automated by simply iterating the operator. The resulting output is general and contains sufficient structure to identify the result of a calculation for a variety of settings.     

This is not a race, this is a farce: Formula One and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway tire crisis

Formula One is the most technologically advanced and financially lucrative form of motorsport in the world with global audiences in the billions over the course of a season. A highly unusual and potentially deadly set of events took place during the Friday practice for the sixth annual United States Grand Prix at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Controversy and blame soon followed. Using Benoit's public relations and image restoration strategy framework, this paper examines the different strategies employed during the crisis by the Formula One teams, Michelin, the Federation Internationale De L’Automobile, Formula One Management, and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. An examination of the crisis situation at the United States Grand Prix allows this study to expand Benoit's initial framework into sport as well as examining the implications for public relations and image repair strategies.     

Household Headship Among Married Women: The Roles of Economic Power, Education, and Convention

Household headship historically has been equated with being the main economic provider of the household, a position usually occupied by men. This paper uses a change in the United States Census definition of household headship to examine whether headship for married women is associated with being the primary breadwinner in a marriage versus other non-economic explanations. According to microdata from the 1990 United States Census, women who are the main income providers in a marriage are much more likely to be household heads than women in co-provider marriages. There also is support for an egalitarian ideology explanation; that is, when both spouses are highly educated, the wife is more likely than the husband to be household head net of her relative economic independence in that marriage. Yet the force of convention remains strong given the low prevalence of headship among married women. The new census definition was meant partly to reflect the changing economic status of women. However, the reality is that conventional gender behaviors persist in household headship.     

Adoption and Antisocial Personality: Genetic and Environmental Factors Associated with Antisocial Outcomes

The present review critically evaluates evidence from adoption studies on the heritability of antisocial personality, interactions between genetic predispositions and the characteristics of adoptive mothers and fathers, and both the methodological and diagnostic shortcomings of existing studies. The article concludes with directions and suggestions for future research and practice.     

The Persistence of Outmoded Contraceptive Regimes: The Cases of Mexico and Brazil

Two of the most striking characteristics of contraceptive practice in the world today are the wide variation in patterns of use across countries and the tendency of the distribution of use by method to persist or narrow, even as new methods become available. The argument advanced in this article is that the disposition to commit to a reduced range of methods results from positive feedback in the process of contraceptive choice, and follows the logic of path dependence. The positive feedback derives, in large part, from social interaction among both the providers and the users of contraceptive methods. The persistence of outmoded contraceptive regimes is illustrated with the experience of Mexico and Brazil. In each case, it is argued that the conditions, events, and policies in the early stage of the adoption process have had a determinant bearing on the contraceptive practice prevailing in the late 1990s.