Pivot to Telehealth: Narrative Reflections on Circle of Security Parenting Groups during COVID‐19

In response to COVID‐19 hygiene and physical distancing restrictions, our service rapidly shifted to delivering Circle of Security‐Parenting? (COS‐P) groups via telehealth. In this article we report the perspectives and experiences of the group facilitator and the parents who received the intervention during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We use semi‐structured, qualitative interviews to explore the advantages, challenges, and positive impacts of the online parenting group from the perspectives of the group leader and the five group participants. Participants’ narrative reflections show that they were satisfied with the convenient and engaging online delivery of the program and would recommend it to other parents. Parents reported significant improvements in their parenting and greater awareness of their strengths and struggles. The online delivery of COS‐P resulted in more efficient service delivery, greater attendance rates, and adherence to the model. The stressors on the experienced facilitator, due to the abrupt transition and multiple technical and communication challenges, may have been mitigated by supervisor and collegial support, as well as careful preparation for herself and the participants. Future research should investigate the effectiveness of online versus face‐to‐face delivery of the intervention, including what works for whom.     

Young adults’ hopes for the long-term future: from re-enchantment with technology to faith in humanity

Recent scholarly research has claimed that young people are predominantly concerned with their immediate ‘horizon of planning’, resulting in an outlook upon the future that is dominated by present-day concerns. By distinguishing between choices and plans, on the one hand, and hope and faith, on the other, this article analyses how young people relate to the future through their attitudes about responsibility and technology in order to complicate this narrative. The data are drawn from an interview project in which 28 young adults (aged 18–34) discuss both their own future and a general idea of the future of society. Two key findings are discussed. Firstly, respondents are found to place faith in the potential of technology to mitigate future predicaments, and secondly, respondents are found to ascribe mystical or magical qualities to technology. Drawing on these findings, this article suggests that the oft-cited attitude that technology will develop in time to meet the needs of the future does not simply signify a deferral of responsibility onto future generations. Instead, by drawing on scholarship on re-enchantment it is argued that for young adults technological development can represent a refuge of faith and hope for the future.     

Bayesian analysis of threshold autoregressions

A nonasymptotic Bayesian approach is developed for analysis of data from threshold autoregressive processes with two regimes. Using the conditional likelihood function, the marginal posterior distribution for each of the parameters is derived along with posterior means and variances. A test for linear functions of the autoregressive coefficients is presented. The approach presented uses a posterior p-value averaged over the values of the threshold. The one-step ahead predictive distribution is derived along with the predictive mean and variance. In addition, equivalent results are derived conditional upon a value of the threshold. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the approach.     

Bayesian autoregressive spectral analysis

The article describes an operational Bayesian approach to making inferences for the spectral density function for univariate autoregressive processes and for the AR operator of multivariate autoregressive processes. The derivation of the approach is described. Numerical examples, including the Wolfer Sunspot numbers, are used to demonstrate the practical usefulness of the approach.     

How race affects dismissals of college football coaches

We employ a discretetime hazard model and a Blinder-decomposition approach to explore the possibility of racial discrimination in the dismissal and retention of college football coaches by university administrations. A rich data set consisting of 81 institutions over an 11-year period (1990–2000) that contains, in addition to a coach's race, variables on cumulative winning records, annual on-the-field improvements, and pre-/post-season game participation by institutions and their coaches is employed. Our study finds that black coaches, on average, face a dismissal probability that is 9.6 percentage points below that of their nonblack counterparts, ceteris paribus, suggesting that black head coaches may be the beneficiaries of favorable treatment by university administrators. Such a result likely stems from universities ' approach to social concerns involving race and gender issues. This finding also fits a construct that considers workplace discrimination as multi-dimensional. For example, black representation in the college football coaching ranks may be disproportionately low, possibly as a result of discrimination. However, once hired, black coaches are given more time to succeed than nonblacks, other things constant.     

Canonical correlation analysis of residential and vocational outcomes following psychiatric rehabilitation

This analysis uses canonical correlation techniques to explore client outcomes following psychosocial rehabilitation services in two rehabilitation areas: vocational and residential. At issue are the ways in which these two outcomes are affected by a series of eight client characteristics and service delivery features. The overarching question is the effectiveness of the program in establishing independence vocationally and residentially, and whether the same set of factors influences these two outcomes for persons with mental illness. Subjects were 212 ex-clients of a psychosocial rehabilitation agency who were working six months after leaving the program. The analysis derived two canonical functions both of which were significant. Canonical loadings and cross loadings indicated that client level of functioning and program tenure loaded most strongly with residential status on the first canonical variate while education loaded most strongly with salary on the second. These results support the notions that different predictors account for the variance associated with different outcomes following psychosocial rehabilitation. Discussion of the relevance of strong predictor variables highlights ways they can impact program design. Finally, the usefulness of canonical correlation in longitudinal program evaluation research is explored.     

International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities

Using tests of time reversibility, this paper provides further statistical evidence on the long-standing conjecture in economics concerning the potentially asymmetric behaviour of output over the expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. A particular advantage of this approach is that it provides a discriminating test that is instructive as to whether any asymmetries detected are due to asymmetric shocks to a linear model, or an underlying non-linear model with symmetric shocks, and in the latter case is informative as to the potential form of that nonlinear model. Using a long span of international per capita output growth data, the asymmetry detected is overwhelmingly consistent with the long standing perception that the output business cycle is characterized by steeper recessions and longer more gentle expansions, but the evidence for this form of business cycle asymmetry is weaker in the data adjusted for the influence of outliers associated with wars and other extreme events. Statistically significant time irreversibility is reported for the output growth rates of almost all of the countries considered in the full sample data, and there is evidence that this time irreversibility is of a form implying an underlying nonlinear model with symmetrically distributed innovations for 15 of the 22 countries considered. However, the time irreversibility test results for the outlier-trimmed full sample data reveal significant time irreversibility in output growth for around one half of the countries considered, predominantly in Northern Europe and North America, and of a form implying a nonlinear underlying model in only a further half of those cases.