A dynamic analysis of stock markets using a hidden Markov model

This paper proposes a framework to detect financial crises, pinpoint the end of a crisis in stock markets and support investment decision-making processes. This proposal is based on a hidden Markov model (HMM) and allows for a specific focus on conditional mean returns. By analysing weekly changes in the US stock market indexes over a period of 20 years, this study obtains an accurate detection of stable and turmoil periods and a probabilistic measure of switching between different stock market conditions. The results contribute to the discussion of the capabilities of Markov-switching models of analysing stock market behaviour. In particular, we find evidence that HMM outperforms threshold GARCH model with Student-t innovations both in-sample and out-of-sample, giving financial operators some appealing investment strategies.     

Two Approaches to Seeing People with Disabilities

This study tests the possibility that attitudes to people with disabilities can be divided into two types: attitudes at the societal level and attitudes at the personal level. This distinction was made with the aim of clarifying ambiguities from previous research. One test of the proposed distinction rests on the assumption that personal contact with people with disabilities will influence attitudes at the personal level but not at the societal level. Sixty subjects were assigned to either a control group or intervention groups which experienced interventions involving a person with a disability. The attitudes of all subjects were measured one month before and at the time of the intervention. Data on prior contact were also collected. The results, which supported the two level approach, are discussed in terms of their implications for improving attitudes to people with disabilities.     

Power in Dayton: A Replication of the Bonjean Technique in a Medium Size City

Abstract

In recent years, the relationship between personal bankruptcy and stigma has generated much discussion and speculation. However, virtually no research has examined the experiences of bankrupt debtors themselves. In this paper, we provide an analysis of bankruptcy stigma based on thirty-seven in-depth interviews with 19 married couples who filed for personal bankruptcy in 1999. The data demonstrate that stigma is a pervasive feature of contemporary personal bankruptcy and that bankrupt debtors rely upon a wide range of stigma management techniques employed by other stigmatized groups. We conclude by considering the implications of our findings for continued research on personal bankruptcy in the U.S. and for understanding, more broadly, the strategies and struggles for social agency among stressed and marginalized populations.     

eDiary and Female Sexual Distress Scale© in Evaluating Distress in Hypoactive Sexual Desire Disorder (HSDD)

Sex-related distress is integral to the diagnosis of hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD). This article describes the results of three prospective, non-treatment validation studies (two North American and one European), each testing over 200 participants with HSDD, other types of female sexual dysfunction (FSD), or no FSD in which the 12-item Female Sexual Distress Scale^© (FSDS^©), the 13-item FSDS–Revised^©(FSDS–R^©), and a single question asked using a daily electronic diary (the eDiary For HSDD Trials^©; eDiary) were used to measure sex-related distress. FSDS results with 30- and seven-day recall were equivalent. The results observed with FSDS–R Item 13 (a single question assessing concern due to low sexual desire) were comparable to the FSDS. Mean eDiary monthly distress scores were closer to the minimum possible score (equivalent to “a little bit” of distress) and were about twice as variable as FSDS or FSDS–R Item 13 scores in participants with HSDD. All three measures confirmed that there is more distress in women with HSDD compared to women with no sexual dysfunction at all time points, demonstrating discriminant validity.     

Behaviour and the life cycle: a consideration of the role of longitudinal time use studies

This paper discusses the application of time use data for the study of behavioural change over the life cycle. The longitudinal design reduces the need for complex statistical controls and sample matching procedures and simplifies the problem of distinguishing period effects from cohort and development effects.The data are based upon 24 hour time diaries of a panel of 453 persons in Halifax, Canada who were interviewed on the same day of the week in the Fall of both 1971 and 1981. Data for each gender are presented illustrative of the kinds of changes in time use which might be associated with aging or with changes in occupational, financial, educational, or familial status. Cross-sectional time use data from different periods can be used in conjunction with the longitudinal time use data to differentiate between behavioural change based upon maturation or other individual changes and that deriving from a broader base of cultural change.     

Federal Work‐Study Student Perceptions of Career Readiness

University programming seeks to facilitate career development in a variety of ways. Federal Work‐Study (FWS) participation, similar to internships, provides practical experience and potential career development benefits. Over 3 academic years (2016–2019), 1,752 Qualtrics surveys were completed by work‐study students (77% female, 55% White) at the end of each academic year at one university. Three years of data suggest a positive influence of FWS on the growth of National Association of Colleges and Employers career readiness competencies. These data suggest that postsecondary education can construct FWS opportunities with intentional career development goals. Future research should examine a range of career development outcomes in quasi‐experimental designs and unpack the mechanisms within FWS (e.g., supervisor training, matching work assignment to career aspirations) that maximize career growth.     

Staff Development in Public Welfare Agencies

This article describes a teaching-learning model that utilizes videotaped segments along with instructional modules and telegraphic prose to teach students the knowledge, values, and skills necessary to function effectively in a health-related clinic setting. The intent is to facilitate the orderly and rapid absorption of the biomedical, genetic content along with the social work practice skills to assist students to function as members of interdisciplinary teams. Its utilitarian capacity makes it adaptable in a variety of field placement settings. It utilizes actual interviews in which staff persons serve as models for the various practice skills described in the instructional unit.